Vardhman Special Steels Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Indicator Signals

Technical Trend Shift and Price Movement

On 17 Feb 2026, Vardhman Special Steels Ltd closed at ₹257.80, marking a 1.06% increase from the previous close of ₹255.10. The stock’s intraday range was relatively narrow, with a low of ₹252.60 and a high matching the close at ₹257.80. This price action reflects a mild bullish momentum after a period of sideways consolidation. The 52-week price range remains broad, with a low of ₹178.30 and a high of ₹322.35, indicating significant volatility over the past year.

The technical trend has shifted from sideways to mildly bullish, signalling a potential change in investor sentiment. This is supported by the daily moving averages, which currently show a mildly bullish alignment, suggesting that short-term momentum is gaining strength. However, the weekly and monthly technical indicators present a more nuanced picture.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on the weekly timeframe, indicating that the medium-term momentum is still under pressure. On the monthly scale, the MACD is mildly bearish, reflecting a cautious outlook over the longer term. This divergence between daily moving averages and MACD suggests that while short-term momentum is improving, the broader trend has yet to confirm a sustained uptrend.

Complementing this, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator shows bearish momentum on the weekly chart but turns bullish on the monthly chart. This mixed signal implies that while short-term price action may face resistance, the longer-term outlook could be more favourable if current momentum sustains.

RSI and Bollinger Bands Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe is bullish, signalling that buying momentum is gaining traction. However, the monthly RSI does not currently provide a clear signal, indicating that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold in the longer term. This suggests that while short-term momentum is positive, investors should watch for confirmation before assuming a sustained rally.

Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and potential price extremes, are mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts. This indicates that the stock price is trading near the lower band or experiencing contraction in volatility, which could precede a breakout or further consolidation. The mildly bearish Bollinger Bands align with the cautious tone set by the MACD and KST indicators.

Volume and Dow Theory Signals

On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows no clear trend on the weekly scale and is mildly bearish on the monthly scale. This lack of strong volume confirmation suggests that the recent price gains may not yet be supported by robust buying interest, a factor that investors should consider when evaluating the sustainability of the current momentum.

Dow Theory assessments provide a mildly bullish signal on the weekly timeframe but a mildly bearish outlook monthly. This mixed reading further emphasises the transitional nature of the stock’s technical profile, where short-term optimism is tempered by longer-term caution.

Comparative Returns and Market Context

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd’s recent returns have lagged the broader Sensex index over short and medium terms. Over the past week, the stock declined by 2.18% compared to the Sensex’s 0.94% fall. Over one month, the stock dropped 6.17%, significantly underperforming the Sensex’s 0.35% decline. Year-to-date, the stock is down 9.43%, while the Sensex has fallen 2.28%.

However, the longer-term performance remains impressive. Over one year, Vardhman Special Steels Ltd has delivered a 21.06% return, more than double the Sensex’s 9.66%. Over three years, the stock’s return of 48.74% outpaces the Sensex’s 35.81%, and over five years, the stock has surged 263.61% compared to the Sensex’s 59.83%. Remarkably, over a decade, the stock has returned 1,375.92%, dwarfing the Sensex’s 259.08% gain. These figures highlight the company’s strong fundamental growth and resilience despite recent technical challenges.

Mojo Score Upgrade and Market Capitalisation

Reflecting the evolving technical and fundamental outlook, MarketsMOJO upgraded Vardhman Special Steels Ltd’s Mojo Grade from Sell to Hold on 9 Feb 2026. The current Mojo Score stands at 62.0, indicating a moderate level of confidence in the stock’s prospects. The Market Cap Grade is 3, suggesting a mid-sized market capitalisation within the iron and steel products sector.

This upgrade signals a recognition of the stock’s improving technical momentum and long-term growth potential, although caution remains warranted given the mixed indicator signals and recent underperformance relative to the benchmark index.

Investor Takeaways and Outlook

Investors analysing Vardhman Special Steels Ltd should weigh the recent technical momentum shift against the mixed signals from key indicators. The mildly bullish daily moving averages and weekly RSI suggest that short-term buying interest is building, potentially offering entry points for traders seeking to capitalise on momentum.

Conversely, the bearish weekly MACD and KST, alongside mildly bearish Bollinger Bands and OBV, counsel prudence. These indicators imply that the stock may face resistance or consolidation before confirming a sustained uptrend. The divergence between weekly and monthly signals highlights the importance of monitoring multiple timeframes to gauge the stock’s trajectory accurately.

Long-term investors can take comfort from the company’s strong historical returns and recent Mojo Grade upgrade, which reflect solid fundamentals and improving technical conditions. However, the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex in the short term suggests that patience may be required as the market digests sectoral and macroeconomic factors impacting the iron and steel industry.

In summary, Vardhman Special Steels Ltd presents a cautiously optimistic technical profile. The current mildly bullish momentum could develop into a more robust uptrend if volume and momentum indicators improve. Investors should continue to monitor technical signals closely while considering the company’s long-term growth narrative within the iron and steel products sector.

Summary of Key Technical Indicators:

• MACD: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Mildly Bearish
• RSI: Weekly Bullish, Monthly No Signal
• Bollinger Bands: Weekly & Monthly Mildly Bearish
• Moving Averages (Daily): Mildly Bullish
• KST: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Bullish
• Dow Theory: Weekly Mildly Bullish, Monthly Mildly Bearish
• OBV: Weekly No Trend, Monthly Mildly Bearish

Price and Returns Snapshot:

• Current Price: ₹257.80
• 52-Week High/Low: ₹322.35 / ₹178.30
• 1 Week Return: -2.18% vs Sensex -0.94%
• 1 Month Return: -6.17% vs Sensex -0.35%
• Year-to-Date Return: -9.43% vs Sensex -2.28%
• 1 Year Return: +21.06% vs Sensex +9.66%
• 3 Year Return: +48.74% vs Sensex +35.81%
• 5 Year Return: +263.61% vs Sensex +59.83%
• 10 Year Return: +1375.92% vs Sensex +259.08%

Conclusion

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd’s technical landscape is evolving, with a shift towards mild bullishness tempered by mixed signals across key indicators. The stock’s long-term performance remains robust, supported by a recent Mojo Grade upgrade to Hold. Investors should adopt a balanced approach, recognising the potential for short-term gains while remaining vigilant to signs of resistance or volatility. Continued monitoring of momentum and volume indicators will be crucial in assessing the stock’s next directional move within the iron and steel products sector.

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