Why is Blue Dart Expres falling/rising?

Recent Price Movement and Market Context

Blue Dart Express has been under pressure in recent sessions, with the stock hitting a new 52-week low of ₹5,393 during intraday trading on the same day. The share price has declined for four consecutive days, accumulating a loss of 3.55% over this period. This decline is sharper than the broader sector’s movement, although the stock’s performance today was broadly in line with its sector peers. The stock is currently trading below all key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, signalling a bearish technical outlook.

Investor participation has also waned, as evidenced by a 15.81% drop in delivery volume on 05 Dec compared to the five-day average, indicating reduced buying interest. Despite this, liquidity remains adequate for moderate trade sizes, with the stock’s traded value supporting transactions up to ₹0.15 crore based on 2% of the five-day average traded value.

Long-Term Fundamentals Versus Recent Weakness

Despite the recent price weakness, Blue Dart Express maintains strong long-term fundamentals. The company boasts an average Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) of 26.73%, reflecting efficient capital utilisation. Operating profit has grown at an impressive annual rate of 68.83%, and the company’s low Debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.78 times indicates a robust ability to service its debt obligations. Promoters remain the majority shareholders, signalling stable ownership.

However, these positives have been overshadowed by disappointing recent financial results. The half-year ROCE has dropped to 16.46%, the lowest in recent periods, while the debtors turnover ratio has declined to 6.31 times, signalling slower collections. Quarterly interest expenses have surged to ₹21.72 crore, increasing financial costs and pressuring profitability.

Valuation and Profitability Concerns

Blue Dart Express currently trades at an enterprise value to capital employed ratio of 6.1, which is considered expensive relative to its recent performance. Although the stock is priced at a discount compared to its peers’ historical valuations, this has not translated into positive returns for investors. Over the past year, the stock has delivered a negative return of 28.58%, while profits have declined by 5.9%. This erosion in earnings and share price has contributed to investor caution.

Consistent Underperformance Against Benchmarks

The stock’s underperformance is not limited to the past year. Over the last three years, Blue Dart Express has consistently lagged behind the BSE500 and Sensex indices. While the Sensex has delivered a 36.01% return over three years, Blue Dart Express has declined by 27.67%. Similarly, over five years, the stock’s 38.78% gain pales in comparison to the Sensex’s 86.59% rise. This persistent underperformance has likely weighed on investor sentiment and contributed to the recent price decline.

Conclusion: Why Blue Dart Express Is Falling

The decline in Blue Dart Express’s share price on 08-Dec is primarily driven by a combination of weak recent financial results, deteriorating profitability metrics, and sustained underperformance relative to market benchmarks. Despite strong long-term fundamentals, the company’s flat results in September 2025, lower half-year ROCE, increased interest expenses, and declining debtor efficiency have raised concerns among investors. The stock’s expensive valuation relative to its earnings trajectory and continued negative returns over multiple time frames have further dampened investor enthusiasm. These factors collectively explain the ongoing downward pressure on Blue Dart Express’s share price.

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