Adani Green Energy Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Amid Mixed Market Signals

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

The latest data reveals that Adani Green’s open interest (OI) in futures and options contracts rose from 70,786 to 78,420 contracts, an increase of 7,634 contracts or 10.78% on a single trading day. This surge in OI was accompanied by a total volume of 135,171 contracts, indicating robust participation in the derivatives market. The futures segment alone accounted for a value of approximately ₹1,46,182 lakhs, while options contracts contributed a staggering ₹53,111 crores in notional value, underscoring the scale of speculative and hedging activity.

The combined derivatives value stood at ₹1,60,505 lakhs, reflecting significant liquidity and interest in the stock’s price movements. Notably, the weighted average price of traded contracts skewed towards the lower end of the day’s price range, suggesting that a substantial portion of volume was executed closer to the day’s lows rather than highs.

Price and Technical Context

Adani Green closed at ₹791, approximately 4.4% above its 52-week low of ₹758, signalling that the stock remains under pressure despite the recent uptick. The stock opened with a gap up of 2.1% and touched an intraday high of ₹819.2, a 6% rise from the previous close, outperforming the power sector’s 0.28% decline and the Sensex’s modest 0.23% gain. However, the stock continues to trade below all key moving averages – 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day – indicating a prevailing downtrend and technical weakness.

Investor participation has notably increased, with delivery volumes on 23 Jan reaching 43.24 lakh shares, a 403.42% rise compared to the five-day average delivery volume. This spike in delivery volume suggests that long-term investors are either accumulating or liquidating positions in response to recent price action and market developments.

Market Positioning and Directional Bets

The surge in open interest alongside increased volume suggests that market participants are actively repositioning themselves ahead of potential directional moves. The rise in OI typically indicates fresh capital entering the market, either through new long positions or short positions. Given the stock’s recent outperformance relative to its sector and the Sensex, some traders may be betting on a short-term rebound from oversold levels.

However, the fact that Adani Green remains below all major moving averages and close to its 52-week low tempers bullish enthusiasm. The strong delivery volume spike could imply that institutional investors are either offloading shares or selectively accumulating at these levels, reflecting divergent views on the stock’s near-term prospects.

Options market data, with an enormous notional value exceeding ₹53,111 crores, points to significant hedging and speculative activity. The concentration of volume near lower price points may indicate put buying or protective strategies, signalling caution among traders despite the day’s positive price action.

Mojo Score and Analyst Sentiment

Adani Green Energy currently holds a Mojo Score of 13.0, categorised as a Strong Sell by MarketsMOJO, an upgrade from a previous Sell rating on 5 Jan 2026. This downgrade reflects concerns over the company’s valuation, earnings outlook, and technical weakness. The market cap grade is 1, indicating a large-cap status but with limited favourability from a quality and momentum perspective.

Given the mixed signals from derivatives activity and fundamental assessments, investors should approach the stock with caution. The strong sell rating suggests that downside risks remain significant, despite the recent uptick in price and open interest.

Implications for Investors

For investors, the recent open interest surge in Adani Green’s derivatives market signals increased volatility and active repositioning. While the stock’s intraday gains and volume patterns hint at short-term bullish bets, the broader technical and fundamental backdrop remains challenging. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week low and persistent trading below key moving averages suggest that any rally may be met with resistance.

Investors should weigh the strong sell rating and the company’s current market cap grade against the potential for a technical bounce. The elevated options activity and delivery volume spike indicate that institutional players are closely monitoring the stock, which could lead to heightened price swings in the near term.

Given these factors, a cautious approach is advisable, with close attention to further developments in open interest, volume trends, and price action. Monitoring the derivatives market can provide valuable clues on evolving market sentiment and potential directional shifts.

Conclusion

Adani Green Energy Ltd’s sharp increase in open interest and trading volume reflects a dynamic and uncertain market environment. While the stock showed resilience by outperforming its sector and opening higher, underlying technical weaknesses and a strong sell rating from MarketsMOJO highlight ongoing risks. The derivatives market activity suggests a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with investors advised to remain vigilant and consider alternative opportunities within the power sector and beyond.

Unlock special upgrade rates for a limited period. Start Saving Now →