Price Movement and Market Context
On 16 Feb 2026, Adani Power’s share price closed at ₹139.90, down sharply by 6.61% from the previous close of ₹149.80. The intraday range saw a low of ₹139.20 and a high of ₹149.10, indicating significant volatility. This decline contrasts with the broader market, where the Sensex showed a more modest weekly drop of 1.14%, highlighting the stock’s underperformance in the short term.
Over longer periods, however, Adani Power has delivered impressive returns. The stock’s one-year return stands at 40.24%, substantially outperforming the Sensex’s 8.52%. Over five and ten years, the stock has surged by 1,121.83% and 2,720.56% respectively, dwarfing the Sensex’s corresponding returns of 60.30% and 259.46%. This long-term outperformance underscores the company’s growth trajectory despite recent technical headwinds.
Technical Trend Analysis: From Bullish to Mildly Bullish
The technical trend for Adani Power has shifted from a clear bullish stance to a more tempered mildly bullish position. This nuanced change reflects a market grappling with uncertainty, where positive momentum is being tempered by emerging bearish signals.
The daily moving averages remain mildly bullish, suggesting that the short-term trend still favours upward price movement. However, weekly and monthly indicators paint a more mixed picture. The weekly MACD is mildly bearish, indicating a potential weakening in momentum, while the monthly MACD remains bullish, signalling that the longer-term trend is intact but under pressure.
Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers no clear signal on either the weekly or monthly charts, implying that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold at present. This neutral RSI reading suggests a consolidation phase, where the stock may be preparing for a decisive move.
Bollinger Bands and KST Indicators
Bollinger Bands provide further insight into volatility and trend direction. On a weekly basis, the bands are bearish, reflecting increased price volatility and a tendency for the stock to trade near the lower band. Conversely, the monthly Bollinger Bands remain bullish, indicating that despite short-term pressure, the stock’s longer-term volatility profile supports upward momentum.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, a momentum oscillator, is mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This suggests that momentum is decelerating, reinforcing the caution signalled by the weekly MACD and Bollinger Bands.
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Volume and Trend Confirmation: OBV and Dow Theory
On the volume front, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows no clear trend on a weekly basis but is mildly bullish monthly. This suggests that while short-term trading volumes have not decisively supported price moves, longer-term accumulation may be occurring.
Dow Theory assessments align with this mixed outlook. Weekly charts show no definitive trend, whereas monthly charts indicate a mildly bullish stance. This divergence highlights the importance of timeframe in interpreting technical signals and suggests that investors should weigh short-term caution against longer-term optimism.
Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights
Adani Power’s current Mojo Score stands at 42.0, categorised as a Sell, a downgrade from the previous Hold rating on 13 Feb 2026. This reflects a deterioration in the stock’s technical and fundamental outlook as assessed by MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating a relatively low market capitalisation rating within its sector.
The downgrade in Mojo Grade underscores the recent technical challenges and the need for investors to exercise caution. The stock’s sharp one-day decline of 6.61% further emphasises the increased risk profile in the near term.
Comparative Performance and Sector Context
Within the power sector, Adani Power’s technical signals are somewhat out of sync with broader industry trends. While the sector has shown resilience, the stock’s weekly bearish indicators and recent price weakness suggest it is facing unique pressures, possibly linked to company-specific news or market sentiment shifts.
Investors should consider these factors alongside the stock’s historical outperformance. The 3-year return of 348.11% versus the Sensex’s 36.73% highlights the company’s strong growth credentials, but the current technical signals advise prudence.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
Adani Power’s recent technical parameter changes signal a shift from strong bullish momentum to a more cautious mildly bullish stance. The mixed signals from MACD, Bollinger Bands, and KST indicators across weekly and monthly timeframes suggest that while the stock retains long-term growth potential, short-term volatility and bearish pressures are intensifying.
Investors should monitor key support levels near the 52-week low of ₹93.23 and resistance around the 52-week high of ₹182.75. The current price of ₹139.90 places the stock in a consolidation zone, where a decisive breakout or breakdown could set the tone for the coming months.
Given the downgrade to a Sell Mojo Grade and the sharp recent price decline, a cautious approach is warranted. Those with a longer investment horizon may view current weakness as a buying opportunity, but short-term traders should be alert to potential further downside.
Overall, Adani Power remains a stock with strong historical returns but faces a technical momentum shift that demands careful analysis and risk management.
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