Recent Price Movement and Market Context
On 10 Feb 2026, ABFRL closed at ₹74.31, marking a significant 7.95% increase from the previous close of ₹68.84. The stock traded within a range of ₹68.25 to ₹75.05 during the session, demonstrating heightened volatility. This price action comes against the backdrop of a 52-week high of ₹104.60 and a low of ₹59.82, indicating that while the stock has rebounded from its lows, it remains well below its peak levels.
Comparatively, ABFRL’s recent returns have been mixed. Over the past week, the stock surged 15.93%, outperforming the Sensex’s 2.94% gain. However, longer-term returns paint a more challenging picture: a 1-month return of -0.30% versus Sensex’s 0.59%, a year-to-date decline of -3.18% against Sensex’s -1.36%, and a 1-year loss of -19.10% compared to the Sensex’s 7.97% gain. Over three and five years, ABFRL has underperformed the benchmark significantly, with returns of -13.18% and 34.31% respectively, against Sensex’s 38.25% and 63.78%. The 10-year return of 28.16% also lags far behind the Sensex’s 249.97%.
Technical Indicator Analysis: Momentum and Trend
The technical trend for ABFRL has shifted from bearish to mildly bearish, signalling a tentative improvement but still reflecting underlying weakness. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating that the stock’s momentum is yet to turn decisively positive. This bearish MACD suggests that the recent price gains may be corrective rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of momentum confirmation from RSI implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for either further upside or downside depending on market catalysts.
Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts are mildly bearish, reflecting moderate volatility with the price tending towards the lower band. This suggests that while the stock is not in an extreme oversold condition, it faces resistance to upward movement in the near term.
Daily moving averages also indicate a mildly bearish stance, with the stock price hovering close to but not decisively above key averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This technical setup often signals consolidation or a pause in trend direction.
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Additional Technical Signals and Volume Analysis
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator remains bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, reinforcing the view that the stock’s momentum is subdued. KST is a momentum oscillator that helps identify major price cycles, and its bearish reading suggests that ABFRL is still in a downtrend phase or at best a weak recovery.
Interestingly, the Dow Theory analysis shows a mildly bullish signal on the weekly timeframe, hinting at some underlying strength in the short term. However, the monthly Dow Theory reading shows no clear trend, indicating uncertainty over longer horizons.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) does not show any significant trend on weekly or monthly charts, suggesting that volume is not confirming price moves. This lack of volume confirmation often signals caution, as price increases without volume support may not be sustainable.
Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights
Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd currently holds a Mojo Score of 17.0, categorised as a Strong Sell. This represents a downgrade from its previous Sell rating on 23 Oct 2025, reflecting deteriorating technical and fundamental conditions. The company’s market capitalisation grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier valuation relative to its peers in the Garments & Apparels sector.
These ratings underscore the cautious stance investors should adopt, as the stock faces headwinds both from technical indicators and broader market performance.
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Sector and Industry Context
Operating within the Garments & Apparels sector, ABFRL faces intense competition and evolving consumer preferences. The sector has seen mixed performance recently, with some players benefiting from festive season demand and others struggling with inventory and margin pressures. ABFRL’s technical and fundamental challenges may partly reflect these sectoral dynamics, compounded by broader macroeconomic factors such as inflationary pressures and discretionary spending trends.
Investors should consider these external factors alongside the company’s technical signals when evaluating potential entry or exit points.
Outlook and Investor Considerations
While the recent price surge and mildly bullish weekly Dow Theory signal offer some optimism, the prevailing bearish MACD, KST, and moving averages caution against aggressive positioning. The absence of volume confirmation and neutral RSI readings further suggest that the stock may be in a consolidation phase rather than a clear uptrend.
Given the Strong Sell Mojo Grade and the downgrade from Sell, investors are advised to maintain a defensive stance. Those holding the stock should monitor technical indicators closely for signs of sustained momentum improvement or deterioration. New entrants might prefer to wait for confirmation of a trend reversal supported by volume and momentum indicators before committing capital.
In summary, ABFRL’s technical landscape is characterised by a tentative shift in momentum but remains weighted towards caution. The stock’s performance relative to the Sensex and sector peers highlights the need for careful analysis and risk management.
Summary of Key Technical Metrics:
- Current Price: ₹74.31 (up 7.95% on 10 Feb 2026)
- MACD: Bearish (Weekly & Monthly)
- RSI: No clear signal (Weekly & Monthly)
- Bollinger Bands: Mildly Bearish (Weekly & Monthly)
- Moving Averages: Mildly Bearish (Daily)
- KST: Bearish (Weekly & Monthly)
- Dow Theory: Mildly Bullish (Weekly), No Trend (Monthly)
- OBV: No Trend (Weekly & Monthly)
- Mojo Score: 17.0 (Strong Sell, downgraded from Sell on 23 Oct 2025)
Investors should continue to monitor these indicators alongside broader market developments to gauge the stock’s trajectory in the coming weeks.
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