Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Market Signals

Technical Momentum and Price Action

On 16 Feb 2026, ABFRL’s stock price surged to ₹74.03 from the previous close of ₹70.16, marking a robust 5.52% gain. The intraday high touched ₹75.13, while the low was ₹68.34, indicating significant volatility. Despite this positive price movement, the broader technical trend remains cautiously bearish, having softened from a strongly bearish posture to mildly bearish on weekly and monthly timeframes.

The 52-week price range for ABFRL stands between ₹59.82 and ₹104.60, with the current price still 29.2% below its annual high. This gap underscores the stock’s struggle to regain its previous momentum amid sector headwinds and broader market volatility.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, signalling that the underlying momentum is still skewed towards sellers. The MACD line continues to trade below the signal line, suggesting that the recent price rally may be a technical bounce rather than a sustained uptrend.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly and monthly scales shows no definitive signal, hovering in a neutral zone. This lack of momentum confirmation from RSI indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further directional movement but no clear bias.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

Daily moving averages for ABFRL are mildly bearish, with the short-term averages still below the longer-term ones, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. The Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts also suggest a mildly bearish stance, with the price currently trading near the lower band, which often acts as a support level in technical analysis.

This positioning near the lower Bollinger Band could imply a potential for a short-term rebound, but the overall trend remains under pressure until confirmed by a sustained move above the mid-band or moving averages.

Volume and Trend Confirmation

On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings provide a mildly bullish signal on the weekly chart, indicating that volume flow is somewhat supportive of the recent price gains. However, the monthly OBV shows no clear trend, reflecting uncertainty among longer-term investors.

The KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator remains bearish on both weekly and monthly timeframes, reinforcing the cautious outlook. Dow Theory analysis offers a mildly bullish weekly signal but no discernible trend on the monthly scale, highlighting the mixed technical landscape.

Comparative Performance and Market Context

ABFRL’s recent price momentum contrasts with its longer-term performance relative to the Sensex. Over the past week, the stock outperformed the benchmark with a 7.54% gain versus the Sensex’s 1.14% decline. However, this outperformance narrows over the monthly horizon, with ABFRL up just 0.90% compared to the Sensex’s 1.20% fall.

Year-to-date, ABFRL has declined 3.54%, slightly worse than the Sensex’s 3.04% drop. Over one year, the stock has underperformed significantly, falling 14.24% while the Sensex gained 8.52%. The three- and five-year returns also lag the benchmark, with ABFRL posting -10.63% and +33.24% respectively, against Sensex returns of +36.73% and +60.30%. Even over a decade, ABFRL’s 51.81% gain pales in comparison to the Sensex’s 259.46% rise.

This relative underperformance highlights the challenges faced by the garments and apparels sector, including changing consumer preferences, inflationary pressures, and competitive dynamics.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

MarketsMOJO’s latest assessment downgraded ABFRL’s Mojo Grade from Sell to Strong Sell on 23 Oct 2025, reflecting deteriorating fundamentals and technical outlook. The current Mojo Score stands at 17.0, signalling weak momentum and caution for investors. The Market Cap Grade is a low 3, indicating limited market capitalisation strength relative to peers.

These ratings align with the mixed technical signals and subdued price performance, suggesting that investors should approach ABFRL with caution and consider risk management strategies.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

While ABFRL’s recent price rally and mildly bullish volume indicators offer some short-term optimism, the prevailing technical indicators caution against a sustained uptrend. The bearish MACD and KST, combined with mildly bearish moving averages and Bollinger Bands, suggest that the stock remains vulnerable to downward pressure.

Investors should weigh these technical signals alongside fundamental factors such as sector headwinds, competitive positioning, and earnings outlook. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over multiple timeframes further emphasises the need for careful portfolio allocation.

For traders, the current price action near the lower Bollinger Band may present tactical opportunities for short-term gains, but risk management is essential given the mixed signals and overall bearish momentum.

Long-term investors should monitor for confirmation of trend reversal through sustained price moves above key moving averages and improvement in momentum indicators before increasing exposure.

Summary

Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd’s technical landscape is characterised by a cautious shift from bearish to mildly bearish momentum, with mixed signals from key indicators. Despite a strong intraday price gain of 5.52%, the stock faces resistance from bearish MACD and KST readings, neutral RSI, and mildly bearish moving averages. Relative underperformance against the Sensex over one to ten years adds to the cautious outlook.

MarketsMOJO’s downgrade to a Strong Sell grade and a low Mojo Score of 17.0 reinforce the need for prudence. Investors should closely monitor technical developments and sector dynamics before making significant investment decisions.

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