Current Price Action and Market Context
As of 5 Feb 2026, Asian Paints closed at ₹2,452.55, marking a 1.09% increase from the previous close of ₹2,426.20. The stock traded within a range of ₹2,414.80 to ₹2,489.95 during the day, remaining well below its 52-week high of ₹2,985.50 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹2,125.00. This price action suggests a tentative recovery phase, supported by a mild bullish trend on daily moving averages.
However, when viewed against the broader market, Asian Paints has underperformed the Sensex over recent periods. The stock’s one-month return stands at -11.54%, significantly lagging the Sensex’s -2.27%. Year-to-date, the stock has declined by 11.45%, compared to the Sensex’s modest fall of 1.65%. Over longer horizons, the stock’s performance remains mixed, with a 4.13% gain over one year versus the Sensex’s 6.66%, and a notable underperformance over three and five years.
Technical Indicator Analysis: Mixed Signals
The technical landscape for Asian Paints is nuanced. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a dichotomy: the weekly MACD remains mildly bearish, indicating short-term selling pressure, while the monthly MACD has shifted to mildly bullish, suggesting improving momentum over a longer timeframe. This divergence points to a potential consolidation phase before a decisive trend emerges.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers no clear signal on either the weekly or monthly charts, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of momentum confirmation implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, reinforcing the sideways to mildly bullish trend assessment.
Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and price extremes, show a mildly bearish stance on both weekly and monthly charts. The stock price is currently closer to the lower band, signalling potential downside risk or a consolidation phase before a breakout.
Daily moving averages, however, provide a more optimistic outlook. The stock’s price is trading above key short-term moving averages, indicating mild bullish momentum in the immediate term. This is supported by the KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator, which is mildly bearish on a weekly basis but mildly bullish monthly, echoing the MACD’s mixed signals.
Other technical tools such as the Dow Theory and On-Balance Volume (OBV) add further complexity. Dow Theory remains mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, suggesting that the broader trend has yet to confirm a sustained uptrend. Meanwhile, OBV shows no clear trend, indicating that volume is not decisively supporting price movements at present.
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Mojo Score and Rating Revision
MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system currently assigns Asian Paints a Mojo Score of 67.0, reflecting a Hold rating. This represents a downgrade from a previous Buy rating issued on 16 Jan 2026. The downgrade reflects the mixed technical signals and the stock’s recent underperformance relative to the broader market. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating a large-cap status but with limited momentum strength at present.
Comparative Performance and Sector Context
Within the paints sector, Asian Paints remains a dominant player but faces challenges from both sector peers and broader market headwinds. The stock’s 10-year return of 175.97% trails the Sensex’s 244.38%, highlighting the need for renewed momentum to regain investor confidence. The recent mild bullish shift in technical trend may signal the beginning of such a phase, but confirmation through stronger indicator alignment is necessary.
Investor Implications and Outlook
For investors, the current technical setup suggests a cautious approach. The mildly bullish daily moving averages offer short-term trading opportunities, but the weekly and monthly bearish signals from MACD, Bollinger Bands, and Dow Theory counsel prudence. The absence of strong volume support further tempers enthusiasm.
Long-term investors should monitor the stock’s ability to break above resistance levels near ₹2,500 and sustain momentum above key moving averages. A sustained improvement in monthly MACD and KST indicators would be a positive development, potentially signalling a return to stronger uptrends.
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Summary
Asian Paints Ltd. is navigating a transitional phase in its technical momentum, with a shift from sideways to mildly bullish trends on daily charts but mixed and cautious signals on weekly and monthly timeframes. The downgrade to a Hold rating by MarketsMOJO reflects this uncertainty, compounded by recent underperformance relative to the Sensex and sector peers.
Investors should weigh the mildly bullish daily moving averages against the bearish weekly and monthly MACD and Bollinger Band signals, alongside neutral RSI and volume indicators. The stock’s near-term trajectory will depend on its ability to sustain gains above key resistance levels and attract volume support to confirm a more robust uptrend.
Given the current technical landscape, a balanced approach combining selective trading with close monitoring of indicator developments is advisable. Asian Paints remains a key large-cap stock in the paints sector, but its momentum challenges warrant careful analysis before committing to fresh positions.
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