Asian Paints Ltd. Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Sideways Trend

Technical Trend Overview

Asian Paints’ technical trend has softened from mildly bullish to sideways, signalling a pause in upward momentum. The stock closed at ₹2,402.70 on 9 Feb 2026, down 1.21% from the previous close of ₹2,432.10. The intraday range was between ₹2,386.80 and ₹2,440.05, indicating moderate volatility within a relatively narrow band. This price action suggests consolidation after recent gains, with investors awaiting clearer directional cues.

MACD Signals: Divergent Weekly and Monthly Views

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD is mildly bearish, reflecting a recent weakening in upward momentum. This is consistent with the stock’s inability to sustain gains above the ₹2,430 level. Conversely, the monthly MACD remains mildly bullish, indicating that the longer-term trend retains some positive bias. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings suggests that while short-term momentum has cooled, the medium-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic.

RSI Indicates Neutral Momentum

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts shows no clear signal, hovering near neutral levels. This absence of overbought or oversold conditions implies that the stock is neither stretched nor deeply discounted technically. Such a neutral RSI often precedes a period of sideways price movement, reinforcing the current technical trend assessment.

Bollinger Bands Confirm Bearish Pressure

Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly timeframes are bearish, with the price gravitating towards the lower band on the weekly chart. This suggests increased selling pressure and potential for further downside or at least a continuation of the consolidation phase. The bands’ contraction also points to reduced volatility, which often precedes a breakout in either direction.

Moving Averages and KST: Mixed Signals

Daily moving averages remain mildly bullish, with the stock price trading slightly above key short-term averages. This indicates some underlying support and a potential base for renewed upward moves. However, the Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator presents a split view: mildly bearish on the weekly chart but mildly bullish on the monthly. This again highlights the tension between short-term caution and longer-term optimism among market participants.

Dow Theory and OBV: Bearish and Neutral Trends

Dow Theory assessments are mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly scales, signalling that the broader market trend for Asian Paints may be under pressure. Meanwhile, On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows no discernible trend, indicating a lack of strong accumulation or distribution by investors. This neutral volume pattern supports the sideways price action observed recently.

Price Performance Relative to Sensex

Examining Asian Paints’ returns relative to the Sensex reveals underperformance over recent periods. The stock declined 1.07% over the past week compared to a 1.59% gain in the Sensex. Over one month, Asian Paints fell sharply by 15.55%, while the Sensex dipped only 1.74%. Year-to-date, the stock is down 13.25%, versus a 1.92% decline in the benchmark. However, over the last year, Asian Paints posted a 6.16% gain, slightly lagging the Sensex’s 7.07% rise. Longer-term returns over three, five, and ten years show significant underperformance relative to the Sensex, with 3-year returns at -12.81% versus 38.13% for the index, and 5-year returns at 1.09% against 64.75% for the Sensex. The 10-year return remains robust at 167.81%, though still trailing the Sensex’s 239.52%.

Mojo Score and Rating Revision

MarketsMOJO has revised Asian Paints’ Mojo Score to 57.0, reflecting a Hold rating, downgraded from a previous Buy on 16 Jan 2026. This adjustment aligns with the technical indicators signalling a loss of bullish momentum and the sideways trend. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating the company’s large-cap status but not necessarily translating into immediate price strength. Investors should note this rating change as a cautionary signal amid the current technical environment.

Sector and Industry Context

Within the paints sector, Asian Paints continues to be a dominant player, but the sector itself has faced headwinds from raw material cost pressures and subdued demand in certain end markets. The sideways technical trend and mixed indicator signals may reflect these broader challenges. Comparatively, peers in the sector have shown varied technical patterns, with some smaller caps exhibiting early signs of recovery, while others remain under pressure.

Implications for Investors

The current technical landscape suggests that Asian Paints is in a consolidation phase, with short-term bearish signals tempered by longer-term bullish undercurrents. The mildly bearish weekly MACD and bearish Bollinger Bands caution against aggressive buying at this stage, while the neutral RSI and mildly bullish monthly indicators leave room for a potential rebound if positive catalysts emerge. Investors should monitor key support levels near ₹2,380 and resistance around ₹2,440 for signs of breakout or breakdown.

Valuation and Price Range Considerations

Asian Paints’ 52-week high stands at ₹2,985.50, while the 52-week low is ₹2,125.00. The current price near ₹2,400 is closer to the lower end of this range, suggesting some valuation appeal if the company’s fundamentals remain intact. However, the recent underperformance relative to the Sensex and the downgrade to Hold indicate that investors should exercise caution and consider risk-reward dynamics carefully.

Conclusion: Navigating a Transitional Phase

Asian Paints Ltd. is currently navigating a transitional technical phase characterised by a shift from mild bullishness to sideways momentum. The mixed signals from MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and moving averages underscore the need for investors to remain vigilant and responsive to evolving market conditions. While the longer-term monthly indicators retain a mildly bullish tone, the weekly and daily charts caution against complacency.

Given the recent downgrade to a Hold rating and the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex, investors may prefer to adopt a wait-and-watch approach or explore alternative opportunities within the paints sector or broader market. Monitoring volume trends and key technical levels will be critical in anticipating the next directional move for Asian Paints.

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