Key Events This Week
5 Jan: Sharp open interest surge amid bearish market signals
7 Jan: Intraday high reached with strong 3.11% surge
8 Jan: Price correction amid heavy market decline
9 Jan: Week closes with a modest gain at Rs.3,805.10
5 January: Open Interest Surge Amid Bearish Signals
On 5 January 2026, Avenue Supermarts opened the week under pressure, closing at Rs.3,646.50, down 2.00% from the previous Friday’s close of Rs.3,721.00. This decline was sharper than the Sensex’s 0.18% fall, signalling relative weakness. The day was notable for an 11.8% surge in open interest in the derivatives segment, rising from 52,404 to 58,592 contracts, indicating heightened market activity and repositioning by investors.
The stock traded below all major moving averages, reflecting a sustained bearish technical setup. Delivery volumes also dropped sharply by over 41%, suggesting reduced conviction among long-term holders. The combination of rising open interest with falling prices often points to increased short positions or protective hedging, highlighting cautious sentiment despite active trading.
6 January: Modest Recovery on Low Volume
Following the previous day’s weakness, Avenue Supermarts edged up 0.50% to close at Rs.3,664.90 on 6 January, while the Sensex declined 0.19%. The recovery was modest and accompanied by lower volume, indicating tentative buying interest. The stock remained below its longer-term moving averages, maintaining a cautious technical outlook.
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7 January: Strong Intraday Rally and Outperformance
The stock rebounded sharply on 7 January, surging 4.86% intraday to a high of Rs.3,842.90 and closing at Rs.3,842.90, a 4.86% gain for the day. This rally outpaced the Sensex, which was nearly flat with a 0.03% gain, and the diversified retail sector’s 3.06% rise. The strong buying interest pushed the stock above its 5-day and 20-day moving averages, signalling short-term bullish momentum.
Despite this positive price action, Avenue Supermarts remained below its longer-term moving averages, indicating that the broader trend was still under pressure. The company’s Mojo Score remained at 38.0 with a 'Sell' grade, reflecting fundamental concerns despite the technical bounce.
8 January: Price Correction Amid Broader Market Weakness
On 8 January, Avenue Supermarts corrected by 1.41% to close at Rs.3,788.90, mirroring the Sensex’s sharp 1.41% decline. The stock’s retreat followed the strong rally the previous day and coincided with heavy selling pressure in the broader market. Volume was relatively low, suggesting profit-taking rather than a sustained sell-off.
9 January: Week Ends with Modest Gain Despite Market Decline
The week concluded on 9 January with Avenue Supermarts gaining 0.43% to close at Rs.3,805.10, while the Sensex fell 0.89%. The stock’s resilience amid a declining market capped the week’s performance with a 2.26% gain from the previous Friday’s close. Trading volumes picked up again, reflecting renewed investor interest as the stock held above key short-term support levels.
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | Rs.3,646.50 | -2.00% | 37,730.95 | -0.18% |
| 2026-01-06 | Rs.3,664.90 | +0.50% | 37,657.70 | -0.19% |
| 2026-01-07 | Rs.3,842.90 | +4.86% | 37,669.63 | +0.03% |
| 2026-01-08 | Rs.3,788.90 | -1.41% | 37,137.33 | -1.41% |
| 2026-01-09 | Rs.3,805.10 | +0.43% | 36,807.62 | -0.89% |
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Key Takeaways
Positive Signals: Avenue Supermarts outperformed the Sensex by 5.88% during the week, demonstrating resilience amid a broadly weak market. The strong intraday rally on 7 January and the stock’s ability to hold above short-term moving averages indicate emerging short-term bullish momentum. Increased trading volumes on key days suggest renewed investor interest.
Cautionary Notes: The stock remains below its longer-term moving averages, signalling that the broader downtrend is intact. The sharp open interest surge on 5 January amid falling prices points to increased bearish positioning or hedging activity. The company’s Mojo Score of 38.0 and 'Sell' grade reflect fundamental concerns, including valuation and growth prospects in a challenging retail environment.
Market Context: The diversified retail sector showed mixed performance, with Avenue Supermarts outperforming peers on key days but still facing sector headwinds. The broader market’s decline of 2.62% contrasted with the stock’s modest gain, highlighting its relative strength but also the cautious sentiment prevailing among investors.
Conclusion
Avenue Supermarts Ltd’s week was characterised by a complex interplay of technical recovery and fundamental caution. While the stock managed a 2.26% gain and outperformed the Sensex, the underlying market signals remain mixed. The surge in derivatives open interest alongside price weakness early in the week suggested increased hedging or bearish bets, while the midweek rally demonstrated short-term buying interest. Investors should remain attentive to the stock’s ability to break above longer-term resistance levels and monitor changes in market positioning closely. The current Mojo Score and rating underscore the need for prudence amid ongoing sector challenges and valuation concerns.
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