Technical Momentum and Indicator Overview
The stock closed at ₹3,826.35, slightly down from the previous close of ₹3,833.45, with intraday trading ranging between ₹3,783.65 and ₹3,887.95. Over the past 52 weeks, Avenue Supermarts has seen a high of ₹4,916.30 and a low of ₹3,337.10, indicating a wide trading band and significant volatility within the year.
Examining the technical trend, the overall sentiment has shifted from bearish to mildly bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on the weekly chart, signalling continued downward momentum in the short term, while the monthly MACD has softened to mildly bearish, suggesting a potential easing of selling pressure over the longer term.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of momentum confirmation from RSI indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, reflecting indecision among traders.
Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly timeframes also indicate a mildly bearish stance, with the stock price gravitating towards the lower band, which often signals increased volatility and potential downward pressure. Meanwhile, daily moving averages remain bearish, reinforcing short-term weakness.
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Mixed Signals from Advanced Technical Indicators
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator presents a dichotomy: bearish on the weekly timeframe but bullish on the monthly chart. This divergence suggests that while short-term momentum remains weak, there may be underlying strength developing over the longer horizon. Similarly, the Dow Theory analysis shows a mildly bullish trend weekly but mildly bearish monthly, reinforcing the notion of short-term resilience amid longer-term caution.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) also reflects this mixed sentiment, with mildly bullish readings weekly and mildly bearish monthly. This indicates that while buying volume has increased recently, it has not yet translated into sustained upward price movement over the longer term.
Comparative Performance and Market Context
When compared to the broader market, Avenue Supermarts has outperformed the Sensex over the short term. The stock posted a 4.41% return over the past week against the Sensex’s decline of 1.69%. Year-to-date, Avenue Supermarts has gained 1.23%, while the Sensex is down 1.87%. Over the past year, the stock returned 9.08%, slightly underperforming the Sensex’s 9.56% gain.
However, the longer-term performance paints a more cautious picture. Over three years, Avenue Supermarts has declined by 0.93%, significantly lagging the Sensex’s robust 38.78% gain. Over five years, the stock’s 31.06% return trails the Sensex’s 68.97%, highlighting challenges in sustaining growth momentum relative to the broader market.
Mojo Score and Grade Implications
Avenue Supermarts currently holds a Mojo Score of 44.0, placing it in the Sell category with a Mojo Grade of Sell, downgraded from Hold on 31 October 2025. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, reflecting its large-cap status but signalling limited upside potential based on current fundamentals and technicals.
This downgrade reflects the technical momentum shift and the mixed signals from key indicators, suggesting investors should exercise caution. The stock’s technical profile indicates that while short-term weakness persists, there may be pockets of resilience that could offer tactical trading opportunities rather than a clear directional trend.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
For investors and traders, the current technical landscape of Avenue Supermarts suggests a cautious approach. The bearish daily moving averages and weekly MACD indicate short-term selling pressure, while the mildly bearish monthly indicators and mixed momentum signals imply that a definitive trend has yet to emerge.
Given the stock’s recent underperformance relative to the Sensex over the medium to long term, investors should weigh the risks of further downside against the potential for tactical rebounds supported by mildly bullish weekly KST and Dow Theory signals.
In the context of the diversified retail sector, which faces evolving consumer trends and competitive pressures, Avenue Supermarts’ technical profile underscores the importance of monitoring momentum shifts closely. The stock’s current price near ₹3,826 remains well below its 52-week high of ₹4,916, indicating room for volatility and potential correction.
Overall, the downgrade to a Sell grade by MarketsMOJO reflects a prudent stance amid technical uncertainty. Investors seeking exposure to the retail sector may consider alternative stocks with stronger momentum and more favourable technical setups, as identified by comprehensive multi-parameter analyses.
Conclusion
Avenue Supermarts Ltd’s technical indicators reveal a nuanced momentum shift characterised by short-term bearishness tempered by mildly bullish signals on longer timeframes. The stock’s downgrade to a Sell grade aligns with these mixed signals and relative underperformance against the Sensex over recent years. While tactical opportunities may arise from intermittent bullish momentum, the prevailing technical environment advises caution and selective positioning within the diversified retail sector.
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