Bajaj Auto Ltd Sees Significant Open Interest Surge Amid Market Rebound

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 22 January 2026, Bajaj Auto Ltd. (symbol: BAJAJ-AUTO) recorded a substantial increase in open interest (OI) in its derivatives contracts. The latest OI stood at 97,240 contracts, up by 9,432 contracts or 10.74% from the previous day’s 87,808. This rise in OI accompanied a volume of 55,137 contracts, indicating heightened trading activity and renewed investor interest in the stock’s futures and options.

The futures segment alone accounted for a value of approximately ₹1,49,498.53 lakhs, while the options segment’s notional value was significantly larger at ₹23,767.53 crores. The combined derivatives turnover reached ₹1,51,017.12 lakhs, underscoring the stock’s liquidity and active participation among traders.

The underlying equity price closed at ₹9,253, reflecting a 0.52% gain on the day, outperforming the automobile sector’s 0.21% rise and the Sensex’s 0.22% increase. This outperformance, coupled with the OI surge, suggests that market participants are positioning for potential upside moves in the near term.

Technical and Trend Analysis

Bajaj Auto’s price action shows a recent trend reversal after four consecutive days of decline. The stock’s current price is trading above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, signalling a medium- to long-term bullish bias. However, it remains below the short-term 5-day and 20-day moving averages, indicating some near-term consolidation or hesitation among traders.

Investor participation, measured by delivery volume, has declined sharply. On 21 January, delivery volume was 1.61 lakh shares, down 40.73% compared to the five-day average, suggesting that while speculative activity in derivatives is rising, actual shareholding by investors is moderating. This divergence often points to increased short-term trading and hedging rather than long-term accumulation.

Liquidity remains robust, with the stock’s average traded value supporting trade sizes up to ₹7.8 crore without significant market impact. This liquidity is crucial for institutional investors and traders looking to execute sizeable positions efficiently.

Market Positioning and Directional Bets

The sharp increase in open interest alongside rising volumes in Bajaj Auto’s derivatives points to a growing consensus among traders about the stock’s near-term direction. The 10.74% jump in OI suggests fresh positions are being established rather than existing ones being squared off, which often indicates directional conviction.

Given the stock’s recent price recovery and outperformance relative to its sector, it is plausible that market participants are betting on a sustained upward move. The futures value of ₹1,49,498.53 lakhs and the massive options notional value imply that both outright long positions and hedging strategies are being actively deployed.

Options activity, in particular, can reveal nuanced market sentiment. The large options value hints at increased interest in calls, which typically reflect bullish bets, or complex strategies such as spreads and collars designed to capitalise on expected volatility while managing risk.

However, the decline in delivery volumes suggests that long-term investor conviction remains cautious. This divergence between derivatives activity and cash market participation often signals that the current momentum is driven more by traders and short-term speculators than by fundamental investors.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

Bajaj Auto currently holds a Mojo Score of 58.0, categorised as a Hold rating. This represents an upgrade from a previous Sell rating as of 22 December 2025, reflecting improved market sentiment and fundamental outlook. Despite the upgrade, the Mojo Grade remains cautious, indicating that while the stock shows promise, investors should monitor developments closely before committing significant capital.

The company’s market capitalisation stands at ₹2,57,878.68 crore, classifying it as a large-cap stock within the automobile sector. Its market cap grade is 1, suggesting it is among the more sizeable and liquid stocks in its industry, which supports active trading and institutional interest.

Implications for Investors

The surge in open interest and volume in Bajaj Auto’s derivatives market signals a pivotal moment for investors and traders alike. The data suggests that market participants are positioning for a potential upward move, supported by the stock’s recent trend reversal and relative strength versus its sector and the broader market.

However, the contrasting decline in delivery volumes and the Hold Mojo Grade counsel prudence. Investors should weigh the speculative nature of the current derivatives activity against the underlying fundamentals and broader market conditions.

For traders, the increased liquidity and active options market provide opportunities to implement varied strategies, from directional bets to volatility plays. Meanwhile, long-term investors may prefer to monitor the stock’s ability to sustain gains above key moving averages and watch for confirmation of renewed institutional buying.

Overall, Bajaj Auto’s derivatives market activity offers valuable insights into evolving market sentiment and potential price trajectories, making it a stock to watch closely in the coming weeks.

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