Bajaj Auto Ltd’s Mixed Week: -0.71% Price Change Amid Volatile Derivatives Activity

Monday, 19 January: Weak Start Amid Broader Market Decline

Bajaj Auto began the week at ₹9,427.75, down 0.55% from the previous close, mirroring the Sensex’s 0.49% decline to 36,650.97. The stock’s volume was moderate at 3,371 shares, reflecting a cautious market mood. This initial weakness set the tone for a challenging week as broader market pressures weighed on the automobile sector.

Tuesday, 20 January: Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Signals

The stock fell sharply by 2.67% to ₹9,176.50, underperforming the Sensex’s 1.82% drop to 35,984.65. This decline coincided with a nuanced shift in Bajaj Auto’s technical momentum from bullish to mildly bullish. While daily moving averages and weekly MACD remained positive, monthly MACD and KST indicators suggested caution. The stock traded within a narrow intraday range, reflecting volatility amid mixed signals. Despite the dip, Bajaj Auto remained well above its 52-week low of ₹7,088.25, signalling underlying resilience.

Wednesday, 21 January: Open Interest Surges Amid Mixed Price Action

Bajaj Auto’s stock price stabilised, closing marginally higher by 0.06% at ₹9,181.55, while the Sensex declined 0.47% to 35,815.26. Notably, open interest in the derivatives segment surged by 10.52% to 97,902 contracts, accompanied by a high trading volume of 86,169 contracts. The futures value was approximately ₹2,20,132 lakhs, with options notional value near ₹38,293.58 crores, reflecting strong market participation. Despite a four-day losing streak prior, the stock remained above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, signalling longer-term strength amid short-term consolidation.

Thursday, 22 January: Sharp Open Interest Increase and Price Rebound

The stock rebounded strongly, gaining 2.00% to close at ₹9,365.25, outperforming the Sensex’s 0.76% rise to 36,088.66. Open interest surged further by 11.89% to 98,246 contracts, with futures and options combined market value reaching approximately ₹23,370 crores. Despite the price gain, delivery volumes dropped sharply by 40.7%, indicating reduced cash market participation. The stock traded above key moving averages, though below short-term averages, suggesting a medium-term uptrend with near-term profit-taking or consolidation.

Friday, 23 January: Contrasting Option Activity Ahead of Expiry

Bajaj Auto closed the week at ₹9,413.30, up 0.51% on the day but down 0.31% from Thursday’s close. The Sensex fell 1.33% to 35,609.90. The stock saw a surge in call option activity, with 12,895 contracts traded at the ₹9,600 strike price, generating ₹33.82 crores turnover. Simultaneously, heavy put option volumes were recorded at the ₹9,400 strike price, with 9,349 contracts traded and ₹33.79 crores turnover. This dual surge indicates a complex market sentiment combining bullish optimism with cautious hedging ahead of the 27 January expiry. Despite strong technical positioning above all key moving averages, delivery volumes remained subdued, down 70.86% from the five-day average.

Key Takeaways

Mixed Technical Signals: Bajaj Auto’s technical momentum shifted from bullish to mildly bullish early in the week, with daily and weekly indicators positive but monthly MACD and KST suggesting caution. The stock remains above major moving averages, supporting a medium- to long-term uptrend despite short-term consolidation.

Derivatives Market Activity: Significant surges in open interest on 21 and 22 January, rising by over 10% each day, indicate heightened market participation and repositioning. The large notional values in futures and options highlight strong liquidity and investor focus.

Option Market Complexity: The simultaneous surge in call and put option volumes at strike prices near the current market level ahead of expiry reflects a nuanced market stance. While call activity signals bullish optimism, heavy put volumes suggest hedging or cautious bearish bets.

Relative Performance: Despite a weekly decline of 0.71%, Bajaj Auto outperformed the Sensex’s 3.31% fall, demonstrating relative resilience amid broader market weakness.

Investor Participation: Delivery volumes declined sharply late in the week, indicating reduced cash market commitment and a possible shift towards derivatives trading strategies.

Conclusion

Bajaj Auto Ltd’s performance over the week ending 23 January 2026 was characterised by a delicate balance between cautious optimism and prudent risk management. The stock’s modest weekly decline belies its relative strength against a sharply falling Sensex and a complex technical backdrop. Significant open interest surges and active option market positioning ahead of expiry underscore heightened market attention and evolving investor strategies. While the Hold rating and Mojo Score of 58.0 reflect a neutral stance, the stock’s ability to maintain levels above key moving averages supports a constructive medium-term outlook. Investors and traders should remain attentive to technical developments and option market dynamics as the company navigates a volatile market environment.

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