Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement
The stock closed at ₹903.45 on 2 Feb 2026, down 2.91% from the previous close of ₹930.55. Intraday price action saw a high of ₹935.00 and a low of ₹888.50, indicating increased volatility. The 52-week range remains wide, with a high of ₹1,102.45 and a low of ₹778.25, reflecting significant price swings over the past year.
Technically, the trend has shifted from mildly bullish to sideways, signalling a pause in the upward momentum that characterised recent months. This is corroborated by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which is bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly chart. The MACD histogram has shown decreasing positive momentum, suggesting that the bullish impetus is waning.
Momentum Indicators: MACD and RSI Analysis
The MACD’s bearish stance on the weekly timeframe indicates that short-term momentum is weakening, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line. On the monthly chart, the mildly bearish MACD suggests that longer-term momentum is also under pressure, though not decisively negative. This divergence between timeframes points to a cautious outlook among traders and investors.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, with no clear signal on either the weekly or monthly charts. The RSI hovering around the mid-50s implies neither overbought nor oversold conditions, reinforcing the sideways trend narrative. This lack of directional bias from RSI suggests that the stock may consolidate before making a decisive move.
Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands: Mixed Signals
Daily moving averages continue to show a mildly bullish bias, with the 50-day moving average still above the 200-day moving average, a classic bullish signal. However, the narrowing gap between these averages hints at a potential crossover if downward pressure persists, which could signal a trend reversal.
Bollinger Bands present a contrasting picture: weekly bands are bearish, indicating price pressure near the lower band and increased volatility, while monthly bands are mildly bullish, suggesting that longer-term volatility remains contained and the stock is not yet in a downtrend. This divergence between weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands highlights the complexity of the current technical setup.
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Additional Technical Indicators: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator shows a bearish signal on the weekly chart but remains bullish on the monthly timeframe. This split suggests short-term weakness but underlying longer-term strength, consistent with the sideways trend and potential for a rebound if support levels hold.
Dow Theory assessments are mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating that the broader trend may be losing steam. This aligns with the MACD and Bollinger Bands weekly bearish signals, reinforcing the cautious stance among market participants.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows no clear trend on either weekly or monthly charts, implying that volume is not confirming price movements. This lack of volume support further emphasises the sideways consolidation phase, as neither buyers nor sellers dominate.
Performance Comparison with Sensex
Despite recent technical softness, Bajaj Finance Ltd has outperformed the Sensex over multiple time horizons. The stock’s one-year return stands at 14.37%, nearly triple the Sensex’s 5.16% over the same period. Over three and five years, the stock has delivered 50.03% and 90.76% returns respectively, significantly ahead of the Sensex’s 35.67% and 74.40% gains.
Notably, the ten-year return is an exceptional 1,429.12%, dwarfing the Sensex’s 224.57%, underscoring the company’s long-term growth credentials despite short-term technical challenges. However, recent one-month and year-to-date returns have lagged the benchmark, with the stock down 8.68% and 8.43% respectively, compared to Sensex declines of 4.67% and 5.28%.
Mojo Score and Rating Revision
MarketsMOJO has revised Bajaj Finance’s Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold as of 1 Feb 2026, reflecting the evolving technical landscape and cautious outlook. The current Mojo Score stands at 61.0, indicating moderate confidence in the stock’s near-term prospects. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, signalling the company’s large-cap status but not necessarily implying strong momentum.
This downgrade aligns with the technical indicators’ mixed signals and the recent price correction, suggesting investors should adopt a more measured approach while monitoring for confirmation of trend direction.
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Investor Implications and Outlook
For investors, the current technical setup suggests a period of consolidation and caution. The absence of strong bullish signals from momentum indicators and the sideways trend imply that aggressive buying may be premature. Instead, investors should watch for a sustained breakout above the recent highs near ₹935 or a decisive breakdown below support levels around ₹880 to gauge the next directional move.
Long-term holders can take comfort from the stock’s robust multi-year returns and the mildly bullish monthly indicators, which suggest that the fundamental growth story remains intact. However, short-term traders should be wary of the bearish weekly signals and the potential for increased volatility.
Monitoring volume trends and confirmation from moving averages will be critical in the coming weeks. A crossover of the 50-day moving average below the 200-day could signal a more pronounced correction, while a rebound above the 50-day average would reinforce the mild bullish bias.
Summary
Bajaj Finance Ltd is currently navigating a complex technical landscape marked by a shift from mild bullishness to sideways momentum. Mixed signals from MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and moving averages highlight the need for caution amid short-term weakness and longer-term resilience. The recent downgrade to a Hold rating by MarketsMOJO reflects this nuanced outlook. Investors should remain vigilant for clear trend confirmation before making significant portfolio adjustments.
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