Bajaj Finance Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Indicator Signals

Technical Trend Shift and Indicator Overview

Bajaj Finance’s technical trend has transitioned from a sideways pattern to mildly bearish, signalling a potential change in investor sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a key momentum gauge, shows a bearish outlook on the weekly chart, while the monthly MACD remains mildly bearish. This divergence suggests that short-term momentum is weakening, but longer-term trends have yet to fully confirm a downtrend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures overbought or oversold conditions, currently offers no clear signal on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating a neutral momentum stance. This neutrality implies that the stock is neither overextended to the upside nor oversold, leaving room for directional movement based on other factors.

Bollinger Bands, which track price volatility and potential breakout points, present a bearish signal on the weekly timeframe but a mildly bullish indication on the monthly scale. This mixed signal reflects short-term price pressure against a backdrop of longer-term stability or potential recovery.

Daily moving averages provide a mildly bullish signal, suggesting that recent price action has been supported by short-term trend lines. However, this is tempered by the weekly and monthly KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator readings, which are bearish and bullish respectively, reinforcing the theme of conflicting signals across time horizons.

Volume and Market Sentiment Indicators

On-Balance Volume (OBV), which tracks buying and selling pressure, is mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts. This indicates that volume trends are not strongly supporting upward price movement, potentially signalling cautious investor participation or profit-taking.

Dow Theory assessments align with the mildly bearish weekly and monthly technical trend, suggesting that the broader market sentiment for Bajaj Finance is cautious, with the possibility of further consolidation or correction in the near term.

Price Action and Key Levels

On 3 Feb 2026, Bajaj Finance traded within a range of ₹888.05 to ₹909.00, closing marginally higher at ₹904.35 compared to the previous close of ₹903.45. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹1,102.45 but comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹778.25, indicating a wide trading band over the past year.

This price action, combined with the technical indicators, suggests that while the stock has faced downward pressure in recent weeks, it retains underlying support levels that could prevent a sharp decline. Investors should watch for a break above the daily moving averages and monthly Bollinger Bands to confirm a return to bullish momentum.

Comparative Performance Against Sensex

Examining Bajaj Finance’s returns relative to the Sensex reveals a mixed performance over various timeframes. Over the past week, the stock declined by 2.53%, while the Sensex gained 0.16%. Similarly, the one-month return for Bajaj Finance was -8.66%, underperforming the Sensex’s -4.78%. Year-to-date, the stock is down 8.34% compared to the Sensex’s 4.17% decline.

However, over longer horizons, Bajaj Finance has outperformed the benchmark significantly. The one-year return stands at 13.02%, more than double the Sensex’s 5.37%. Over three years, the stock has surged 58.18%, compared to the Sensex’s 36.26%, and over five years, it has appreciated 74.82% versus the Sensex’s 64.00%. The decade-long return is particularly impressive at 1,451.32%, dwarfing the Sensex’s 232.80% gain.

This long-term outperformance underscores the company’s strong fundamentals and growth trajectory, despite recent technical headwinds.

Mojo Score and Rating Update

MarketsMOJO assigns Bajaj Finance a Mojo Score of 61.0, reflecting a Hold rating, downgraded from a Buy on 1 Feb 2026. The downgrade reflects the recent shift in technical parameters and the mixed signals from momentum indicators. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating a large-cap status with stable market capitalisation.

Investors should consider this rating in conjunction with the technical and fundamental outlook, recognising that while the stock shows signs of short-term caution, its long-term prospects remain robust.

Technical Outlook and Investor Considerations

The mildly bearish weekly technical trend suggests that investors should exercise caution in the near term, particularly given the bearish MACD and KST readings. The absence of clear RSI signals means the stock is not yet oversold, so further downside cannot be ruled out.

Conversely, the mildly bullish daily moving averages and monthly Bollinger Bands indicate potential support and a base for recovery if positive catalysts emerge. Investors may look for confirmation of a trend reversal through a sustained move above key moving averages and improved volume patterns.

Given the stock’s historical outperformance and strong fundamentals, a Hold rating appears prudent until clearer technical confirmation of a trend change is observed.

Conclusion: Navigating Mixed Signals in a Volatile Market

Bajaj Finance Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes highlight the challenges of interpreting mixed momentum signals in a volatile market environment. While weekly indicators point to a cautious, mildly bearish stance, monthly and daily signals offer some optimism for a potential recovery.

Investors should weigh these technical insights alongside the company’s strong long-term fundamentals and historical outperformance. The Hold rating from MarketsMOJO reflects this balanced view, suggesting that while the stock is not currently a strong buy, it remains a key player in the NBFC sector worthy of monitoring for future opportunities.

Close attention to volume trends, moving average crossovers, and MACD developments will be critical in the coming weeks to identify a clear directional bias. Until then, a measured approach with risk management remains advisable.

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