Coforge Ltd Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Amidst Weak Price Action

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 12 Feb 2026, Coforge’s open interest (OI) in derivatives rose from 70,792 contracts to 81,721, marking an increase of 10,929 contracts or 15.44%. This surge in OI was accompanied by a total volume of 94,065 contracts traded, indicating heightened activity in the stock’s futures and options market. The futures segment alone accounted for a value of approximately ₹63,456 lakhs, while the options segment’s notional value stood at an eye-catching ₹47,193.99 crores, culminating in a combined derivatives turnover of nearly ₹72,899.38 lakhs.

Such a substantial increase in open interest alongside robust volume typically suggests fresh positions are being established rather than existing ones being squared off. However, the context of Coforge’s price movement complicates this interpretation.

Price Performance and Technical Indicators

Coforge’s share price underperformed its sector and the broader market on the day. The stock closed down 6.79%, significantly lagging the IT - Software sector’s decline of 4.88% and the Sensex’s marginal fall of 0.43%. The stock also recorded an intraday low of ₹1,412.3, down 7.11%, with the weighted average price skewed towards the lower end of the day’s range, indicating selling pressure.

Technically, Coforge is trading below all major moving averages — 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — signalling a bearish trend across multiple timeframes. The stock has also been on a consecutive two-day losing streak, shedding 8.72% cumulatively, reflecting sustained weakness.

Sector and Market Context

The broader IT - Software sector has been under pressure, declining 4.8% on the day, which adds to the negative sentiment surrounding Coforge. Investor participation appears to be waning, with delivery volumes falling 38.38% to 9.21 lakh shares on 11 Feb compared to the five-day average, suggesting reduced conviction among long-term holders.

Despite this, Coforge’s liquidity remains adequate, with the stock’s traded value supporting a trade size of approximately ₹6.93 crores based on 2% of the five-day average traded value, ensuring that institutional and retail investors can transact without significant price impact.

Interpreting the Open Interest Surge

The simultaneous rise in open interest and decline in price often points to increased short selling or bearish bets being placed by market participants. Traders may be initiating fresh short positions, anticipating further downside in Coforge’s stock price. Alternatively, some long holders could be hedging their exposure by buying put options or selling futures contracts, contributing to the open interest build-up.

Given the futures value of ₹63,456 lakhs and the enormous options notional value exceeding ₹47,193 crores, it is clear that derivatives activity is heavily concentrated and influential in shaping Coforge’s near-term price trajectory.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

Coforge currently holds a Mojo Score of 50.0, reflecting a neutral stance with a Mojo Grade of Hold. This represents a downgrade from a previous Buy rating assigned on 6 Feb 2026, signalling a cautious outlook from MarketsMOJO analysts. The market cap grade stands at 2, categorising Coforge as a mid-cap stock with moderate liquidity and volatility characteristics.

The downgrade aligns with the recent price weakness and technical deterioration, suggesting that investors should exercise prudence and monitor developments closely before committing fresh capital.

Potential Directional Bets and Market Positioning

The derivatives market positioning indicates a tilt towards bearish sentiment. The increase in open interest combined with falling prices and volume concentration near the day’s lows suggests that traders are positioning for further downside or at least increased volatility.

However, the sizeable open interest also implies that a significant number of contracts remain open, which could lead to sharp price moves if these positions are unwound or rolled over in the coming sessions. Investors should watch for changes in put-call ratios, strike price concentrations, and expiry dynamics to gauge evolving market sentiment.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

While the current technical and derivatives data point to a cautious near-term outlook for Coforge, the stock’s fundamentals and sectoral trends should not be overlooked. The IT - Software sector remains a key growth driver in the Indian economy, and any positive developments in earnings, client wins, or macroeconomic factors could quickly reverse the current downtrend.

Investors are advised to balance the technical signals with fundamental analysis and consider risk management strategies such as stop-loss orders or hedging through options to navigate the heightened volatility.

Summary

Coforge Ltd’s recent surge in open interest amid a weakening price trend highlights a complex market environment where bearish bets are gaining traction. The stock’s technical indicators and sectoral underperformance reinforce a cautious stance, reflected in the downgrade to a Hold rating by MarketsMOJO. Investors should closely monitor derivatives activity and price action for signs of trend reversal or further deterioration, while considering broader sector fundamentals and liquidity conditions.

With a market capitalisation of ₹48,552 crores and a mid-cap classification, Coforge remains a significant player in the Computers - Software & Consulting space, but current market signals suggest a period of consolidation or correction may be underway.

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