Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd Faces Technical Momentum Shift Amid Bearish Signals

Price Performance and Market Context

As of 2 February 2026, Gandhar Oil Refinery’s stock closed at ₹143.10, down 4.47% from the previous close of ₹149.80. The intraday range saw a high of ₹151.00 and a low of ₹142.00, reflecting heightened volatility. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹184.25, though comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹120.60. This recent price action underscores a weakening momentum, especially when compared to the broader Sensex index, which has shown relative resilience.

Over the past week, Gandhar Oil’s stock has declined by 12.69%, significantly underperforming the Sensex’s modest 1.00% drop. The one-month return also lags the benchmark, with the stock down 3.51% versus the Sensex’s 4.67% decline. Year-to-date, the stock has fallen 7.29%, compared to the Sensex’s 5.28% loss. Over the last year, the underperformance is more pronounced, with Gandhar Oil down 18.6% while the Sensex gained 5.16%. These figures highlight the stock’s vulnerability amid broader market fluctuations and sector-specific pressures.

Technical Trend Shift: From Sideways to Mildly Bearish

The technical trend for Gandhar Oil Refinery has shifted from a sideways consolidation phase to a mildly bearish trajectory. This change is corroborated by several technical indicators that investors closely monitor for momentum and trend direction.

The daily moving averages have turned bearish, signalling that the short-term price action is under pressure. The stock’s price currently trades below key moving averages, which often acts as resistance in a downtrend. This bearish alignment of moving averages suggests that the stock may face continued selling pressure unless it can reclaim these levels decisively.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced picture. On the weekly chart, the MACD remains mildly bullish, indicating some underlying positive momentum in the medium term. However, the monthly MACD does not provide a clear signal, reflecting uncertainty in the longer-term trend.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further directional movement based on upcoming market catalysts.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart indicate a mildly bullish stance, with the stock price approaching the upper band at times, suggesting some short-term strength. Conversely, the monthly Bollinger Bands signal bearishness, implying that volatility and price compression may be leading to a downside breakout risk over the longer term.

Other Technical Indicators: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator on the weekly timeframe remains bullish, suggesting some positive momentum in the near term. However, the monthly KST does not provide a clear directional bias, reflecting mixed signals over longer horizons.

Dow Theory analysis reveals a mildly bearish trend on the weekly chart, while the monthly chart shows a mildly bullish stance. This divergence indicates that while short-term price action is under pressure, the longer-term trend may still hold some strength, possibly due to underlying fundamentals or sector dynamics.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings on both weekly and monthly charts show no clear trend, indicating that volume flow is not strongly supporting either buying or selling pressure at present. This lack of volume confirmation adds to the uncertainty surrounding the stock’s immediate direction.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

Gandhar Oil Refinery currently holds a Mojo Score of 48.0, which places it in the 'Sell' grade category. This represents a downgrade from its previous 'Hold' rating as of 1 February 2026. The downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical outlook and the stock’s underperformance relative to the broader market and sector peers.

The company’s market capitalisation grade stands at 3, indicating a small-cap status with associated liquidity and volatility considerations. The downgrade to a 'Sell' rating by MarketsMOJO suggests caution for investors, especially given the technical indicators signalling bearish momentum and the stock’s recent price weakness.

Comparative Returns and Sector Context

When compared to the Sensex, Gandhar Oil Refinery’s returns have been disappointing across multiple timeframes. The stock’s 1-year return of -18.6% contrasts sharply with the Sensex’s 5.16% gain, highlighting significant underperformance. Over longer periods, the Sensex has delivered robust returns, including 35.67% over three years and 224.57% over ten years, underscoring the stock’s laggard status within the broader market.

Within the oil sector, Gandhar Oil’s technical deterioration is notable, especially as some peers have shown resilience or recovery amid fluctuating crude prices and refining margins. The stock’s current technical profile suggests it is vulnerable to further downside unless there is a meaningful improvement in sector fundamentals or company-specific catalysts.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

Gandhar Oil Refinery’s recent technical developments suggest a cautious stance for investors. The shift from a sideways to a mildly bearish trend, combined with bearish daily moving averages and mixed momentum indicators, points to potential downside risk in the near term. The stock’s significant underperformance relative to the Sensex and the oil sector further emphasises the challenges it faces.

However, some weekly indicators such as the MACD and KST retain mild bullishness, indicating that a complete downtrend confirmation is yet to materialise. The neutral RSI and lack of volume trend in OBV also suggest that the stock could remain range-bound or volatile until clearer directional cues emerge.

Investors should closely monitor key technical levels, including the 52-week low of ₹120.60, which could act as support, and the daily moving averages, which may serve as resistance. Any sustained break above the recent highs near ₹151.00 could signal a reversal of the bearish momentum, but until then, prudence is advised.

Given the current Mojo Grade downgrade to 'Sell' and the technical signals, investors may consider reducing exposure or exploring alternative opportunities within the oil sector or broader market.

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