Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd Faces Technical Momentum Shift Amid Market Pressure

Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement

The stock closed at ₹146.90 on 16 Feb 2026, down 2.26% from the previous close of ₹150.30. Intraday, it fluctuated between ₹145.05 and ₹150.25, indicating some volatility within a relatively narrow range. The 52-week high stands at ₹184.25, while the 52-week low is ₹120.60, placing the current price closer to the lower end of its annual range.

The technical trend has shifted from sideways to mildly bearish, signalling a potential weakening in price momentum. This is corroborated by the daily moving averages, which currently indicate a bearish trend, suggesting that short-term price averages are below longer-term averages, a classic sign of downward pressure.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced view. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains bullish, implying that momentum over the past several weeks has been positive, with the MACD line above the signal line. However, monthly MACD data is inconclusive or not signalling a clear trend, reflecting uncertainty in longer-term momentum.

This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings suggests that while short-term momentum may still have some strength, the longer-term outlook is less certain, potentially signalling a consolidation phase or a pause before a more decisive move.

RSI and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in a neutral zone. This indicates that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, which aligns with the sideways to mildly bearish trend. The absence of extreme RSI readings suggests that the stock is not yet at a technical extreme, leaving room for further directional movement.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are mildly bullish, indicating that price volatility is contained and the stock is trading near the upper band, which can be a sign of strength. Conversely, the monthly Bollinger Bands are bearish, signalling that over a longer horizon, price volatility and downward pressure are more pronounced.

This contrast between weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands further emphasises the mixed technical signals, with short-term price action showing some resilience while longer-term volatility points to caution.

Other Technical Indicators: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator on the weekly chart remains bullish, reinforcing the idea of short-term positive momentum. However, monthly KST data is unavailable or neutral, again highlighting the divergence between short- and long-term perspectives.

Dow Theory assessments show a mildly bearish trend on the weekly scale but mildly bullish on the monthly scale, reflecting a market in transition with no clear dominant trend. Meanwhile, On-Balance Volume (OBV) is mildly bullish weekly but shows no clear trend monthly, suggesting that volume-based momentum is supportive in the short term but lacks conviction over longer periods.

Comparative Performance Against Sensex

Gandhar Oil Refinery’s recent returns have lagged behind the broader Sensex index. Over the past week, the stock declined by 2.46%, compared to the Sensex’s 1.14% fall. Over one month, the stock’s return was -8.87%, significantly underperforming the Sensex’s -1.20%. Year-to-date, the stock is down 4.83%, while the Sensex has declined by 3.04%. Over the past year, Gandhar Oil Refinery’s stock has fallen 5.01%, contrasting with the Sensex’s robust 8.52% gain.

This underperformance highlights the challenges faced by the company amid sectoral and macroeconomic headwinds, despite some pockets of technical strength.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

MarketsMOJO assigns Gandhar Oil Refinery a Mojo Score of 48.0, categorising it as a 'Sell' with a recent downgrade from 'Hold' on 13 Feb 2026. The Market Cap Grade is 4, indicating a relatively modest market capitalisation within its sector. This downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical outlook and the stock’s underperformance relative to benchmarks.

Given the mixed technical signals and the bearish daily moving averages, the downgrade aligns with a cautious stance from analysts, signalling investors to be wary of further downside risks.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the oil sector, Gandhar Oil Refinery faces sector-specific challenges including fluctuating crude oil prices, regulatory pressures, and global demand uncertainties. The oil sector has seen varied performance recently, with some companies benefiting from supply constraints while others grapple with demand slowdowns.

Gandhar’s technical indicators suggest it is currently more vulnerable than some peers, especially given its weaker relative returns and the mildly bearish trend shift. Investors should weigh these factors carefully against broader sector dynamics.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

Gandhar Oil Refinery’s recent technical developments suggest a cautious outlook. The shift to a mildly bearish trend, supported by bearish daily moving averages and mixed momentum indicators, points to potential near-term weakness. However, weekly bullish signals from MACD and KST indicate that some short-term support remains.

Investors should monitor key technical levels, particularly the 52-week low of ₹120.60, which could act as a critical support zone. A sustained break below this level may confirm a deeper bearish phase. Conversely, a rebound above the daily moving averages and a strengthening RSI could signal a recovery.

Given the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex and the downgrade to a 'Sell' rating, a prudent approach would be to await clearer technical confirmation before initiating new positions. Diversification within the oil sector or exploring higher-rated alternatives may be advisable for risk-conscious investors.

Summary of Technical Signals

• Trend: Sideways to mildly bearish
• MACD: Weekly bullish, Monthly neutral
• RSI: Neutral on weekly and monthly charts
• Bollinger Bands: Weekly mildly bullish, Monthly bearish
• Moving Averages: Daily bearish
• KST: Weekly bullish, Monthly neutral
• Dow Theory: Weekly mildly bearish, Monthly mildly bullish
• OBV: Weekly mildly bullish, Monthly no trend

This mixed technical landscape underscores the importance of a measured investment approach, balancing short-term opportunities against longer-term risks.

Conclusion

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd is navigating a complex technical environment marked by a shift towards mild bearishness amid mixed momentum indicators. While some weekly signals remain positive, the overall trend and daily moving averages caution investors about potential downside. The recent downgrade to a 'Sell' rating by MarketsMOJO reflects these concerns, compounded by the stock’s underperformance against the Sensex.

Investors should remain vigilant, closely tracking technical developments and sector dynamics before committing capital. Exploring alternative opportunities within the oil sector or broader markets may offer better risk-adjusted returns in the current environment.

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