Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement
The stock closed at ₹302.05 on 25 Feb 2026, down 0.66% from the previous close of ₹304.05. Intraday, it fluctuated between ₹297.00 and ₹306.75, remaining well below its 52-week high of ₹360.00, while comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹261.55. This price action reflects a consolidation phase with a bearish undertone, as the stock struggles to regain upward momentum.
The technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to bearish, a signal that the stock’s short-term momentum is weakening. Daily moving averages are firmly bearish, indicating that the stock is trading below its key short-term averages, which often acts as resistance to upward price movement.
Momentum Indicators: MACD, RSI, and KST Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains mildly bullish, suggesting some underlying positive momentum in the short term. However, the monthly MACD is bearish, indicating that the longer-term momentum is deteriorating. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights the stock’s struggle to sustain a bullish trend over a longer horizon.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of directional RSI momentum suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, reinforcing the sideways to bearish price action observed in other indicators.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator aligns with the MACD’s mixed signals, showing mild bullishness on the weekly chart but bearishness on the monthly chart. This further confirms the presence of short-term buying interest that is being offset by longer-term selling pressure.
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Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands Signal Bearish Pressure
Daily moving averages are bearish, with the stock price trading below key averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This technical setup often signals a continuation of downward momentum unless a strong catalyst reverses the trend.
Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart indicate sideways movement, reflecting a period of consolidation with limited volatility. However, the monthly Bollinger Bands are bearish, suggesting that the stock is likely to face downward pressure over the medium term. This divergence between weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands supports the narrative of short-term stability but longer-term weakness.
Volume and Dow Theory Perspectives
On-Balance Volume (OBV) is mildly bearish on the weekly chart, indicating that volume trends are not supporting a strong rally. The absence of a clear trend on the monthly OBV further underscores the lack of conviction among investors.
Dow Theory analysis shows a mildly bearish stance on the weekly timeframe, while the monthly timeframe shows no definitive trend. This suggests that while short-term price action is negative, the longer-term trend remains uncertain, leaving room for potential volatility.
Comparative Returns and Market Context
When compared with the broader Sensex index, Gujarat State Petronet’s returns have been mixed. Over the past week, the stock declined by 0.72%, outperforming the Sensex’s sharper fall of 1.47%. Over the past month, the stock gained 1.31%, slightly ahead of the Sensex’s 0.84% rise. Year-to-date, the stock is down 1.40%, but this is less severe than the Sensex’s 3.51% decline.
Longer-term returns reveal a more cautious picture. Over one year, the stock has returned 8.46%, lagging behind the Sensex’s 10.44%. Over three and five years, the stock’s returns of 8.24% and 21.82% respectively pale in comparison to the Sensex’s 38.28% and 61.92%. Even over a decade, the stock’s 136.72% gain is significantly below the Sensex’s 256.13% appreciation. These figures highlight the stock’s underperformance relative to the broader market over extended periods.
Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings
Gujarat State Petronet currently holds a Mojo Score of 30.0, categorised as a Sell, downgraded from a previous Hold rating on 1 Feb 2025. The Market Cap Grade stands at 3, reflecting moderate market capitalisation relative to peers. This downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical outlook and subdued momentum indicators, signalling caution for investors considering fresh exposure.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
The technical landscape for Gujarat State Petronet Ltd is currently skewed towards caution. While weekly momentum indicators such as MACD and KST show mild bullishness, the dominant monthly signals and daily moving averages point to bearish pressure. The neutral RSI readings and sideways Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart suggest a lack of strong directional conviction in the short term.
Investors should be mindful of the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over multiple timeframes, which may reflect sector-specific challenges or company-specific factors. The downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO further emphasises the need for prudence.
For those holding the stock, monitoring key support levels near ₹297 and the 52-week low of ₹261.55 will be critical. A sustained break below these levels could trigger further downside. Conversely, a recovery above daily moving averages and a bullish crossover in monthly MACD could signal a potential trend reversal.
Given the mixed technical signals and subdued returns, investors may consider diversifying or exploring alternative opportunities within the gas sector or broader market to optimise portfolio performance.
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