Current Price and Market Context
As of 1 February 2026, HDFC Bank’s stock closed at ₹929.35, down 0.67% from the previous close of ₹935.65. The intraday range saw a high of ₹938.90 and a low of ₹927.95, indicating relatively tight price movement. The stock remains below its 52-week high of ₹1,020.35 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹830.80, signalling a moderate recovery from recent lows.
Technical Trend Overview
The technical trend for HDFC Bank has shifted from a clearly bearish stance to a mildly bearish one, reflecting a tentative stabilisation in price momentum. This change is underscored by a mixed bag of signals from various technical indicators across different timeframes.
MACD Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on the weekly chart, suggesting that downward momentum is still present in the near term. However, the monthly MACD has improved to a mildly bearish stance, indicating that longer-term selling pressure may be easing. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings points to a potential bottoming process, though confirmation is awaited.
RSI Signals
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in a neutral zone. This lack of extreme overbought or oversold conditions suggests that the stock is consolidating, with neither bulls nor bears dominating decisively. Investors should watch for any RSI movement beyond the 70 or 30 thresholds for clearer directional cues.
Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages
Bollinger Bands present a nuanced picture: weekly readings are mildly bearish, indicating some downward pressure and potential volatility, while monthly readings are mildly bullish, hinting at a possible longer-term recovery. Meanwhile, daily moving averages remain bearish, reflecting short-term weakness and suggesting that the stock is trading below key average price levels, which may act as resistance.
KST and Dow Theory Perspectives
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is bearish on the weekly timeframe but bullish on the monthly, reinforcing the theme of short-term caution against longer-term optimism. Dow Theory assessments align with this, showing mildly bearish trends on both weekly and monthly charts, signalling that the broader market sentiment remains cautious but not decisively negative.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) Insights
OBV readings add further complexity: weekly OBV is mildly bullish, suggesting accumulation by investors in the short term, while monthly OBV is mildly bearish, indicating some longer-term distribution. This divergence may reflect institutional investors’ cautious stance amid mixed market signals.
Comparative Performance Against Sensex
Examining HDFC Bank’s returns relative to the Sensex reveals a mixed performance. Over the past week, the stock outperformed the benchmark with a 1.43% gain versus Sensex’s 0.90%. However, over the past month and year-to-date, the stock has underperformed, declining 6.19% and 6.29% respectively, compared to Sensex’s more modest falls of 2.84% and 3.46%. On a longer horizon, HDFC Bank has delivered a 9.85% return over one year, surpassing the Sensex’s 7.18%, though it trails the benchmark over three and five years, with returns of 15.14% and 33.64% against Sensex’s 38.27% and 77.74%. Notably, over a decade, HDFC Bank has outpaced the Sensex with a remarkable 254.39% return versus 230.79%, underscoring its long-term growth credentials.
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Mojo Score and Grade Revision
MarketsMOJO’s proprietary Mojo Score for HDFC Bank currently stands at 48.0, reflecting a Sell rating. This represents a downgrade from the previous Hold grade, effective 28 January 2026. The downgrade is driven primarily by deteriorating technical parameters and a low Market Cap Grade of 1, signalling caution for investors. The shift in grade underscores the need for a more defensive stance, especially given the stock’s recent underperformance relative to the broader market.
Technical Summary and Investor Implications
The overall technical summary paints a picture of a stock in transition. While short-term indicators such as daily moving averages and weekly MACD remain bearish, longer-term signals like monthly MACD and KST suggest a potential easing of selling pressure. The mixed signals from Bollinger Bands and OBV further highlight the stock’s consolidation phase, with neither bulls nor bears firmly in control.
For investors, this means that while HDFC Bank’s current technical momentum is subdued, there are signs of stabilisation that could precede a recovery. However, the downgrade to a Sell rating and the mildly bearish trend caution against aggressive accumulation at this stage. Monitoring key technical levels and indicator shifts will be crucial for timing entries or exits.
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Long-Term Performance Context
Despite recent technical headwinds, HDFC Bank’s long-term performance remains robust. The stock’s 10-year return of 254.39% comfortably outpaces the Sensex’s 230.79%, reflecting the bank’s strong franchise and consistent earnings growth over the past decade. This long-term outperformance provides a foundation of confidence for investors willing to weather short-term volatility.
Conclusion: Navigating Mixed Signals
HDFC Bank Ltd. currently finds itself at a technical crossroads. The interplay of bearish short-term indicators and mildly bullish longer-term signals suggests a period of consolidation rather than a decisive trend reversal. The recent downgrade in Mojo Grade to Sell highlights the need for caution, especially given the stock’s underperformance in recent months relative to the Sensex.
Investors should closely monitor key technical indicators such as MACD crossovers, RSI movements beyond neutral zones, and the behaviour of moving averages to identify clearer directional cues. While the stock’s long-term fundamentals remain strong, the current technical landscape advises a measured approach, balancing patience with vigilance.
In summary, HDFC Bank’s technical momentum shift reflects a nuanced market sentiment, where cautious optimism is tempered by short-term weakness. This environment favours investors who prioritise risk management and remain alert to evolving technical developments.
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