HDFC Bank Ltd. Technical Momentum Shifts to Bearish Amid Market Pressure

Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement

As of 2 February 2026, HDFC Bank’s share price closed at ₹920.20, down 0.98% from the previous close of ₹929.35. The stock traded within a range of ₹912.65 to ₹939.60 during the day, remaining well below its 52-week high of ₹1,020.35 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹830.80. This price action reflects a cautious market sentiment amid broader sectoral and macroeconomic headwinds.

The technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling a deterioration in price momentum. Daily moving averages have turned bearish, indicating that short-term price averages are now trending below longer-term averages, a classic sign of weakening upward momentum. This is further corroborated by the weekly and monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators, which remain bearish and mildly bearish respectively, suggesting that the stock’s momentum is losing strength across multiple timeframes.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The MACD, a key momentum oscillator, is signalling bearishness on the weekly chart, with the MACD line positioned below the signal line and both trending downward. On the monthly chart, the MACD remains mildly bearish, indicating that while the longer-term momentum is not strongly negative, it is certainly not supportive of a bullish outlook. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings suggests that short-term selling pressure is intensifying, even as longer-term trends remain somewhat neutral.

Complementing the MACD, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator also reflects bearishness on the weekly timeframe and mild bearishness monthly. The KST’s decline reinforces the view that momentum is weakening, and the stock may face further downside unless there is a significant reversal in buying interest.

Relative Strength Index and Bollinger Bands

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests that the stock is neither oversold nor overbought, leaving room for further movement in either direction. However, the absence of a bullish RSI signal amid other bearish indicators adds to the cautious outlook.

Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are bearish, with the price approaching the lower band, indicating increased volatility and potential downward pressure. On the monthly chart, the bands are sideways, reflecting a consolidation phase without a clear directional bias. This mixed picture highlights the stock’s current indecision but with a tilt towards bearishness in the near term.

Moving Averages and Volume Trends

Daily moving averages have decisively turned bearish, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average, a classic “death cross” pattern that often precedes further declines. This technical development signals that the stock’s short-term momentum is weakening relative to its longer-term trend, which may prompt cautiousness among traders and investors.

On the volume front, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows no clear trend on either weekly or monthly charts, suggesting that volume has not decisively confirmed the price moves. This lack of volume confirmation may imply that the recent price declines are not yet supported by strong selling pressure, leaving open the possibility of a reversal if buying interest returns.

Dow Theory and Broader Market Context

According to Dow Theory, there is no definitive trend on either the weekly or monthly charts for HDFC Bank, indicating a lack of clear directional conviction among market participants. This absence of trend confirmation adds to the technical uncertainty surrounding the stock.

Comparing HDFC Bank’s returns to the broader Sensex index reveals mixed performance. Over the past week, the stock outperformed the Sensex with a 0.43% gain versus the index’s 1.00% decline. However, over the past month and year-to-date, the stock has underperformed, declining 7.12% and 7.21% respectively, compared to Sensex losses of 4.67% and 5.28%. Over longer horizons, the stock has delivered solid returns, with an 8.76% gain over one year and a remarkable 250.90% over ten years, outperforming the Sensex’s 5.16% and 224.57% respectively. This contrast highlights the stock’s vulnerability in the short term despite its strong long-term track record.

Mojo Score and Grade Downgrade

Reflecting these technical challenges, MarketsMOJO has downgraded HDFC Bank’s Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell as of 28 January 2026, with a current Mojo Score of 48.0. The downgrade signals a cautious stance, advising investors to reassess their positions in light of the deteriorating technical outlook. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating the stock’s large market capitalisation but not offsetting the negative momentum signals.

Investor Implications and Outlook

For investors, the current technical landscape suggests caution. The bearish momentum across multiple indicators, combined with the downgrade in Mojo Grade, points to potential near-term weakness. The stock’s failure to sustain levels above key moving averages and the bearish MACD and KST readings imply that further downside cannot be ruled out without a clear catalyst to reverse sentiment.

However, the neutral RSI and lack of volume confirmation on the OBV suggest that the stock is not yet deeply oversold, leaving room for a technical rebound if market conditions improve. Long-term investors may find comfort in the stock’s strong historical returns over one, five, and ten-year periods, but should remain vigilant to evolving technical signals.

In summary, HDFC Bank Ltd. is currently navigating a challenging technical environment with momentum indicators signalling increased downside risk. Investors should closely monitor key support levels near ₹910 and the behaviour of moving averages and MACD for signs of a potential reversal or further deterioration.

Summary of Key Technical Indicators:

• MACD: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Mildly Bearish
• RSI: Neutral on Weekly and Monthly
• Bollinger Bands: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Sideways
• Moving Averages: Daily Bearish (Death Cross observed)
• KST: Weekly Bearish, Monthly Mildly Bearish
• Dow Theory: No clear trend
• OBV: No trend confirmation

Given these factors, a cautious approach is warranted, with close attention to technical developments and broader market cues.

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