Hilton Metal Forging Ltd Falls to 52-Week Low Amid Continued Downtrend

Stock Performance and Market Context

On 1 Feb 2026, Hilton Metal Forging Ltd (Stock ID: 622289) recorded an intraday low of Rs.26.6, representing a decline of 5.94% from the previous close. The stock’s intraday high was Rs.28.91, up 2.23%, but it ultimately closed near the day’s low, reflecting selling pressure. This marks the third consecutive day of losses, with the stock falling by 7.59% over this period.

The stock’s performance today notably underperformed the Castings & Forgings sector, which itself declined by 2.7%. Hilton Metal Forging’s day change of -5.23% was 2.27 percentage points worse than the sector average. The broader market also faced headwinds, with the Sensex reversing sharply after a positive opening, falling 1,666.03 points or 1.88% to trade at 80,722.94. The NIFTY FMCG index also hit a new 52-week low on the same day, indicating widespread market weakness.

Hilton Metal Forging is trading below all key moving averages — 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — signalling sustained downward pressure. The stock’s 52-week high was Rs.84.19, highlighting a steep decline of 68.4% from that peak.

Long-Term and Recent Performance Metrics

Over the past year, Hilton Metal Forging Ltd has delivered a negative return of 65.90%, significantly underperforming the Sensex, which gained 5.16% over the same period. The stock has also lagged behind the BSE500 index across multiple time frames, including the last three years, one year, and three months, indicating persistent challenges in maintaining market value.

The company’s Mojo Score currently stands at 37.0, with a Mojo Grade of Sell, downgraded from Strong Sell on 21 Jul 2025. The Market Cap Grade is 4, reflecting a relatively modest market capitalisation within its sector.

Financial and Valuation Analysis

Hilton Metal Forging’s long-term fundamental strength remains subdued, with an average Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) of 5.85%, which is considered weak relative to industry standards. The company’s ability to service debt is also limited, as evidenced by a high Debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.56 times, indicating elevated leverage and potential financial strain.

Despite these challenges, the company reported a notable growth in net profit of 1060% in the quarter ending September 2025. Net sales for the quarter stood at Rs.87.64 crore, reflecting a growth rate of 132.1% compared to the previous four-quarter average. Profit Before Tax excluding other income (PBT less OI) surged by 2100.0% to Rs.1.32 crore, while the operating profit to interest ratio reached a high of 2.24 times, suggesting improved operational efficiency in the short term.

The company’s ROCE for the recent period was 4.5, paired with an attractive valuation metric of 0.9 Enterprise Value to Capital Employed. This valuation is discounted relative to peers’ historical averages. Over the past year, while the stock price declined by 65.90%, profits increased by 78.4%, resulting in a PEG ratio of 0.4, which may indicate undervaluation on a growth-adjusted basis.

Promoter confidence appears to be strengthening, with promoters increasing their stake by 6% over the previous quarter to hold 13.71% of the company’s equity. This rise in promoter holding is often interpreted as a positive signal regarding the company’s prospects.

Sector and Market Dynamics

The Castings & Forgings sector, to which Hilton Metal Forging belongs, has experienced a decline of 2.7% on the day, reflecting broader pressures within the industry. The Sensex is trading below its 50-day moving average, although the 50-day average remains above the 200-day average, suggesting mixed technical signals for the market overall.

Hilton Metal Forging’s underperformance relative to both its sector and the broader market highlights the challenges faced by the company in regaining investor confidence and market momentum.

Summary of Key Metrics

To summarise, Hilton Metal Forging Ltd’s stock has reached a new 52-week low of Rs.26.6, continuing a downward trend amid a challenging market environment. The stock’s performance over the past year has been significantly negative, with a return of -65.90%, contrasting with the Sensex’s positive 5.16% gain. The company’s financial indicators reveal a mixed picture, with recent profit growth and improved operating metrics offset by weak long-term returns and high leverage.

Promoter stake increases and attractive valuation multiples provide some counterbalance to the stock’s recent price weakness. However, the stock remains below all major moving averages and has underperformed its sector and broader market indices.

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