Hindalco Industries Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Signal Bullish Outlook

Technical Trend Evolution and Price Movement

As of 25 Feb 2026, Hindalco Industries Ltd (stock code 557714) closed at ₹922.85, marking a modest day gain of 0.74% from the previous close of ₹916.10. The stock’s intraday range spanned from ₹909.80 to ₹926.95, indicating a relatively stable upward momentum. Over the past week, the stock has outperformed the Sensex, delivering a 3.52% return compared to the benchmark’s decline of 1.47%. However, the one-month return shows a slight setback with a 2.89% decline, contrasting with the Sensex’s 0.84% gain, signalling short-term volatility.

Longer-term performance remains robust, with a year-to-date return of 4.13% against the Sensex’s negative 3.51%. Over one year, Hindalco has surged 43.85%, significantly outpacing the Sensex’s 10.44%. The three-year and five-year returns stand at 122.27% and 176.88% respectively, dwarfing the Sensex’s 38.28% and 61.92%. Impressively, the ten-year return is a staggering 1,289.83%, reflecting the company’s sustained growth trajectory in the non-ferrous metals sector.

MACD and Momentum Indicators: A Mixed Picture

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced outlook. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains mildly bearish, suggesting some caution among traders in the short term. Conversely, the monthly MACD is bullish, indicating that the longer-term momentum is gaining strength. This divergence highlights a transitional phase where short-term profit-taking or consolidation may be occurring, while the broader trend remains positive.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligns with this positive longer-term momentum, showing bullish signals on both weekly and monthly charts. This reinforces the view that the stock’s underlying strength is intact, supported by improving price momentum and volume dynamics.

RSI and Bollinger Bands: Neutral to Mildly Bullish Signals

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for further price appreciation without immediate risk of a reversal due to exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and potential price breakouts, indicate a mildly bullish stance on both weekly and monthly charts. The bands are slightly expanding, signalling increased volatility but with an upward bias. This supports the notion that Hindalco’s price could continue to trend higher, albeit with some fluctuations.

Moving Averages and Volume Trends

Daily moving averages have turned bullish, with the stock price comfortably above key averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This crossover and sustained positioning above these averages typically signal a strong uptrend and investor confidence. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, however, shows no clear trend on a weekly basis but is bullish on the monthly scale, suggesting that accumulation is occurring over the longer term despite short-term volume inconsistencies.

Dow Theory assessments present a mixed view: mildly bearish on the weekly timeframe but bullish monthly. This again reflects short-term consolidation or minor corrections within a broader bullish framework.

Valuation and Market Capitalisation Context

Hindalco’s current Mojo Score stands at 64.0, with a Mojo Grade downgraded from Buy to Hold as of 18 Nov 2025. The Market Cap Grade is 1, indicating a relatively modest market capitalisation compared to peers in the non-ferrous metals sector. This downgrade reflects a cautious stance amid mixed technical signals and sectoral headwinds, despite the company’s strong long-term fundamentals.

Investors should note that while the technical trend has improved from mildly bullish to bullish, the Hold rating suggests a wait-and-watch approach, especially given the recent short-term volatility and the divergence in some momentum indicators.

Sector and Industry Outlook

Operating within the non-ferrous metals industry, Hindalco is subject to cyclical demand patterns and commodity price fluctuations. The sector has seen mixed performance recently, influenced by global supply chain disruptions and fluctuating raw material costs. Hindalco’s technical indicators suggest it is navigating these challenges with resilience, but investors should remain vigilant to macroeconomic developments that could impact momentum.

Investor Takeaway and Strategic Considerations

For investors, the shift to a bullish technical trend is encouraging, signalling potential upside in the medium to long term. However, the mixed signals from weekly MACD and Dow Theory, alongside a Hold Mojo Grade, counsel prudence. The stock’s strong historical returns, particularly over five and ten years, underscore its capacity for wealth creation, but near-term volatility may persist.

Monitoring the daily moving averages and monthly MACD will be critical to confirm sustained bullish momentum. Additionally, the neutral RSI suggests that the stock is not yet overextended, offering a window for accumulation on dips. Volume trends, especially monthly OBV improvements, further support a constructive outlook.

In summary, Hindalco Industries Ltd presents a technically improving profile with a cautiously optimistic outlook. Investors should balance the bullish momentum with the current Hold rating and mixed short-term signals, aligning their strategies with risk tolerance and broader market conditions.

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