Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Indicator Signals

Technical Trend and Price Momentum

HPCL’s current price stands at ₹451.00, slightly down by 0.43% from the previous close of ₹452.95. The stock’s intraday range on 4 Feb 2026 spanned from ₹444.30 to ₹475.20, indicating some volatility but also resilience near the upper end of the range. Over the past week, HPCL has outperformed the Sensex with a 7.51% return compared to the benchmark’s 2.30%, signalling short-term strength. However, the one-month and year-to-date returns tell a different story, with HPCL declining 9.03% and 9.62% respectively, both underperforming the Sensex’s losses of 2.36% and 1.74%. This divergence suggests that while short-term momentum is building, medium-term pressures remain.

Longer-term performance remains robust, with HPCL delivering a 38.79% return over the past year, significantly outpacing the Sensex’s 8.49%. Over three, five, and ten-year horizons, the stock has delivered exceptional gains of 200.23%, 203.43%, and 300.03% respectively, dwarfing the Sensex’s corresponding returns of 37.63%, 66.63%, and 245.70%. This long-term outperformance underpins investor confidence despite recent technical caution.

Mixed Signals from Key Technical Indicators

Examining the technical indicators reveals a nuanced picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating that momentum has not fully shifted to the upside. This suggests that while the stock is attempting to build bullish momentum, underlying selling pressure persists.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of directional bias in RSI implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for either a continuation of the mild bullish trend or a reversal depending on forthcoming market catalysts.

Bollinger Bands present a split view: weekly readings are mildly bearish, reflecting recent price consolidation near the lower band, while monthly readings are bullish, suggesting a longer-term upward price channel. This divergence highlights the importance of timeframe in interpreting HPCL’s price action.

Moving averages on the daily chart have turned mildly bullish, with short-term averages crossing above longer-term ones, signalling potential upward momentum in the near term. However, the Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator remains mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, reinforcing the cautious stance.

Dow Theory analysis adds further complexity, showing a mildly bullish weekly trend but a mildly bearish monthly trend. This indicates that while short-term price action is encouraging, the broader monthly trend remains under pressure.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) is mildly bearish on the weekly chart and shows no clear trend monthly, suggesting that volume-driven momentum is not strongly supporting price advances at present.

Mojo Score and Grade Revision

HPCL’s Mojo Score currently stands at 64.0, reflecting a Hold rating, a downgrade from its previous Buy grade as of 2 Feb 2026. This adjustment reflects the mixed technical signals and the stock’s recent price underperformance relative to the broader market. The Market Cap Grade remains low at 2, indicating that the company’s market capitalisation is modest relative to its sector peers, which may limit institutional interest and liquidity.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the Oil sector and industry, HPCL’s technical and fundamental outlook is influenced by global crude oil price dynamics, refining margins, and regulatory developments. The sector has experienced volatility amid fluctuating crude prices and geopolitical tensions, which have impacted investor sentiment. HPCL’s technical indicators mirror this uncertainty, with short-term bullish momentum tempered by longer-term bearish signals.

Price Range and Volatility

The stock’s 52-week high of ₹508.45 and low of ₹287.55 illustrate a wide trading range, reflecting significant volatility over the past year. The current price near ₹451.00 positions HPCL closer to the upper half of this range, suggesting some recovery from lows but still below peak levels. This price positioning aligns with the mildly bullish daily moving averages but contrasts with the bearish weekly MACD and KST indicators.

Investor Implications and Outlook

For investors, HPCL presents a nuanced opportunity. The short-term technical momentum and daily moving averages suggest potential for price appreciation, especially if the stock can sustain levels above ₹450 and break through resistance near recent highs. However, the mixed signals from weekly and monthly indicators counsel caution, as underlying bearish momentum and volume trends could limit upside potential.

Long-term investors may find comfort in HPCL’s strong multi-year returns, which have significantly outpaced the Sensex. Yet, the recent downgrade to Hold and the modest Mojo Score indicate that the stock may not currently offer the same growth impetus as before, warranting a more measured approach.

Conclusion: Balanced Technical Outlook Amid Sector Volatility

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. currently exhibits a cautiously optimistic technical profile. The shift from a sideways to a mildly bullish trend on daily moving averages and short-term price momentum is encouraging. However, the persistence of mildly bearish signals on weekly and monthly MACD, KST, and OBV indicators, alongside a neutral RSI, suggests that investors should remain vigilant.

Given the stock’s recent downgrade to Hold and the modest Mojo Score of 64.0, HPCL appears to be in a consolidation phase rather than a clear breakout. Investors with a medium to long-term horizon may consider monitoring the stock for confirmation of sustained bullish momentum, particularly through improvements in volume and MACD signals. Meanwhile, those seeking more aggressive growth might explore alternative opportunities within the oil sector or broader market, as suggested by comparative tools.

Ultimately, HPCL’s technical landscape reflects the broader uncertainties in the oil industry and global markets, underscoring the importance of a diversified and well-analysed portfolio approach.

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