Hindustan Petroleum Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Signalling Renewed Market Optimism

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 23 Feb 2026, Hindustan Petroleum's open interest in derivatives rose sharply by 4,768 contracts, a 13.83% increase from the previous OI of 34,470 to 39,238. This surge is accompanied by a robust volume of 27,101 contracts traded, indicating active participation in the futures and options market. The futures value stood at ₹1,16,086.37 lakhs, while the options segment exhibited an enormous notional value of ₹12,665.75 crores, culminating in a total derivatives market value of approximately ₹1,17,628.26 lakhs.

The underlying stock price closed at ₹439, having touched an intraday high of ₹442, marking a 2.58% gain on the day. This price action follows two consecutive days of decline, suggesting a potential trend reversal supported by increased investor participation.

Market Positioning and Investor Sentiment

The rise in open interest alongside elevated volumes typically signals fresh capital inflows and new positions being established rather than existing ones being squared off. In Hindustan Petroleum's case, the 13.83% OI increase coupled with a 1.68% day change in price and a 1.49% one-day return outpaced the Oil sector's 0.33% and Sensex's 0.44% gains, underscoring relative strength.

Delivery volumes surged to 24.15 lakh shares on 20 Feb, a remarkable 143.94% increase over the five-day average delivery volume, highlighting strong investor conviction in holding the stock rather than short-term trading. This rising investor participation is a positive signal for medium-term price stability and potential upside.

Technically, the stock trades above its 200-day moving average, a key long-term support level, though it remains below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages. This positioning suggests the stock is in a consolidation phase with potential for upward momentum if short-term averages are breached.

Mojo Score Upgrade and Valuation Metrics

MarketsMOJO has upgraded Hindustan Petroleum's Mojo Grade from Hold to Buy on 9 Feb 2026, reflecting improved fundamentals and positive market outlook. The company holds a Mojo Score of 74.0, indicating strong potential relative to peers in the Oil sector. Despite a mid-cap market capitalisation of ₹93,049.68 crores, the stock offers a healthy dividend yield of 3.6%, attractive for income-focused investors.

Liquidity remains adequate, with the stock's traded value supporting a trade size of ₹2.44 crores based on 2% of the five-day average traded value, ensuring ease of entry and exit for institutional and retail participants alike.

Directional Bets and Derivatives Market Implications

The substantial increase in open interest, combined with rising volumes and price appreciation, suggests that market participants are positioning for a bullish move in Hindustan Petroleum. The derivatives data imply that traders are likely establishing fresh long positions or rolling over existing ones, anticipating further upside in the near term.

Options market activity, with an options value exceeding ₹12,665 crores, indicates significant hedging and speculative interest. The elevated open interest in futures and options contracts often precedes notable price movements, as it reflects consensus expectations and risk appetite.

Given the stock's outperformance relative to the Oil sector and Sensex, alongside technical signals and delivery volume trends, investors may view this as an opportune moment to consider exposure to Hindustan Petroleum within a diversified portfolio.

Sector Context and Comparative Performance

Within the Oil sector, Hindustan Petroleum's recent performance stands out. The stock's 1.49% one-day return on 23 Feb 2026 notably outpaced the sector's 0.33% gain and the Sensex's 0.44% rise. This relative strength is underpinned by the company's solid fundamentals, dividend yield, and improving market sentiment.

Investors should consider the broader energy market dynamics, including crude oil price trends, refining margins, and regulatory developments, which could influence Hindustan Petroleum's near-term trajectory. The company's mid-cap status offers growth potential while maintaining a degree of stability compared to smaller, more volatile peers.

Risks and Considerations

Despite the positive signals, investors should remain cautious of potential volatility inherent in the derivatives market. Sudden shifts in open interest can also reflect speculative positioning that may unwind quickly. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as global oil demand, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations could impact the stock's performance.

Technical resistance levels, particularly the 5-day to 100-day moving averages currently above the stock price, may pose short-term hurdles. Monitoring these levels alongside volume and open interest trends will be crucial for timing entries and exits.

Conclusion

The recent surge in open interest and volume in Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd.'s derivatives market, combined with positive price action and upgraded Mojo Grade, signals growing bullish sentiment among investors. The stock's outperformance relative to its sector and benchmark indices, alongside rising delivery volumes, suggests a strengthening market positioning and potential for further gains.

While risks remain, the data-driven insights point towards a favourable outlook for Hindustan Petroleum, making it a compelling consideration for investors seeking exposure to the oil sector with a blend of growth and income attributes.

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