Hindustan Unilever Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Market Signals

Technical Trend Overview: A Shift from Bearish to Mildly Bearish

HUL’s technical trend has transitioned from a clearly bearish stance to a mildly bearish one, signalling a tentative stabilisation but not yet a definitive recovery. The daily moving averages remain mildly bearish, suggesting that short-term price momentum is still under pressure. The stock’s 52-week trading range, between ₹2,136.00 and ₹2,779.70, highlights a significant volatility band, with the current price hovering closer to the lower end, indicating limited upside momentum in the near term.

MACD and RSI: Divergent Signals Across Timeframes

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD is mildly bullish, hinting at a potential positive momentum building over the medium term. However, the monthly MACD remains bearish, reflecting longer-term downward pressure. This divergence suggests that while short-term traders might find some buying opportunities, longer-term investors should remain cautious.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers no clear signals on either the weekly or monthly charts, indicating a neutral momentum without overbought or oversold conditions. This lack of directional RSI signals implies that the stock is currently in a consolidation phase, awaiting a catalyst to break decisively in either direction.

Bollinger Bands and KST: Bearish Bias Persists

Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly charts remain bearish, signalling that price volatility is skewed towards the downside. The stock’s price is trading near the lower band, which often suggests potential support but also highlights the risk of further declines if selling pressure intensifies.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator adds further nuance: it is bearish on the weekly timeframe but mildly bullish on the monthly scale. This split reinforces the notion of short-term weakness amid a cautiously optimistic longer-term outlook.

Volume and Dow Theory: Lack of Conviction

On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows no clear trend on either weekly or monthly charts, indicating that volume is not confirming price movements. This absence of volume support weakens the conviction behind recent price changes, making it harder to predict sustained directional moves.

Dow Theory assessments align with this uncertainty, showing a mildly bearish trend on the weekly chart and no discernible trend on the monthly chart. This suggests that the broader market sentiment towards HUL remains tentative, with no strong directional bias.

Price Performance Relative to Sensex: Underperformance Over Medium and Long Term

HUL’s recent returns reveal a mixed performance relative to the benchmark Sensex index. Over the past week, the stock declined by 1.20%, while the Sensex gained 2.30%, indicating short-term underperformance. However, over the last month and year-to-date periods, HUL outperformed the Sensex with returns of 1.01% and 2.43%, respectively, compared to the Sensex’s negative returns of -2.36% and -1.74%.

Longer-term comparisons paint a less favourable picture. Over one year, HUL’s stock fell by 2.86%, while the Sensex rose 8.49%. Over three and five years, HUL’s returns of -10.37% and 6.23% lagged significantly behind the Sensex’s 37.63% and 66.63%. Even over a decade, HUL’s 188.71% gain trails the Sensex’s 245.70%, highlighting persistent underperformance against the broader market.

Mojo Score and Grade: Downgrade Reflects Growing Caution

HUL’s Mojo Score currently stands at 42.0, placing it in the Sell category with a Mojo Grade of Sell, downgraded from Hold on 3 Dec 2025. This downgrade reflects a deterioration in the stock’s technical and fundamental outlook as assessed by MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating a relatively low market capitalisation strength compared to peers, which may contribute to the cautious stance.

Intraday Price Action and Volatility

On 4 Feb 2026, HUL’s intraday price fluctuated between ₹2,344.65 and ₹2,399.60, closing near the upper end of the day’s range at ₹2,371.60. This modest upward movement of 0.67% from the previous close of ₹2,355.80 suggests some buying interest, though the stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹2,779.70. The relatively narrow trading range and subdued volume trends imply limited conviction among traders.

Moving Averages: Daily Mild Bearishness Persists

The daily moving averages continue to signal a mildly bearish trend, with short-term averages likely positioned below longer-term averages. This alignment typically indicates that recent price action has been weaker relative to historical levels, reinforcing the cautious technical outlook. Investors should watch for any crossover events that might signal a reversal or acceleration of the current trend.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

While some weekly indicators such as MACD and KST hint at emerging bullish momentum, the prevailing monthly and daily signals remain bearish or neutral. The lack of volume confirmation and mixed Dow Theory trends further complicate the outlook. Investors should approach HUL with caution, recognising that the stock is in a consolidation phase with potential for volatility.

Given the downgrade to a Sell rating and the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over multiple time horizons, long-term investors may prefer to monitor for clearer signs of trend reversal before increasing exposure. Short-term traders might find opportunities in the mildly bullish weekly MACD but should remain vigilant for downside risks indicated by Bollinger Bands and moving averages.

Conclusion: Technical Signals Demand Prudence

Hindustan Unilever Ltd’s current technical landscape is characterised by a cautious balance between emerging bullish signals on shorter timeframes and persistent bearishness on longer-term charts. The downgrade to a Sell Mojo Grade and the stock’s relative underperformance against the Sensex over recent years underscore the need for prudence among investors.

While the stock’s mild daily gains and weekly MACD improvements offer some hope for a turnaround, the absence of strong volume support and bearish monthly indicators suggest that any recovery may be fragile. Investors should closely monitor key technical levels, moving average crossovers, and volume trends for confirmation before committing to significant positions.

In the context of the broader FMCG sector and market conditions, HUL’s mixed technical signals highlight the importance of a disciplined, data-driven approach to portfolio allocation, favouring stocks with clearer momentum and fundamental strength.

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