Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Deterioration

Price Movement and Market Context

IRCTC’s current market price stands at ₹675.40, down 2.70% from the previous close of ₹694.15. The stock traded within a range of ₹673.90 to ₹701.75 during the latest session, remaining closer to its 52-week low of ₹655.70 than its high of ₹838.35. This price contraction contrasts with the broader Sensex, which has shown modest gains over the same period, underscoring relative weakness in IRCTC’s share performance.

Over the past week, IRCTC’s stock return was -3.36%, while the Sensex gained 0.88%. Year-to-date, the stock has declined by 1.34%, compared to a 0.26% rise in the benchmark index. The one-year return is particularly concerning, with IRCTC down 15.16% against the Sensex’s 7.85% gain. Although the stock has delivered a robust 131.81% return over five years, this recent underperformance highlights emerging headwinds.

Technical Trend Shift: From Mildly Bearish to Bearish

The technical trend for IRCTC has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, reflecting increasing selling pressure. Daily moving averages have turned decisively bearish, signalling that short-term momentum is weakening. The stock’s price currently trades below key moving averages, which often act as resistance levels in downtrends.

On the weekly and monthly charts, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. The weekly MACD remains mildly bullish, suggesting some short-term positive momentum, but the monthly MACD is bearish, indicating longer-term downward pressure. This divergence implies that while there may be intermittent rallies, the broader trend remains negative.

Momentum Oscillators and Volatility Indicators

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This lack of directional momentum suggests the stock is neither oversold nor overbought, but the absence of a bullish RSI signal tempers optimism.

Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts are bearish, with the stock price gravitating towards the lower band. This indicates heightened volatility and a tendency for prices to remain under pressure. The KST (Know Sure Thing) oscillator confirms this bearish stance on both weekly and monthly scales, reinforcing the negative momentum.

Volume and Trend Confirmation

On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicators for weekly and monthly periods show no clear trend, suggesting that volume is not decisively supporting either buying or selling pressure. This neutral volume pattern may imply indecision among market participants, which could prolong the current consolidation or downtrend.

Dow Theory assessments provide a nuanced view: weekly signals are mildly bullish, hinting at potential short-term recovery attempts, but monthly signals show no definitive trend, reflecting uncertainty in the longer-term outlook.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

IRCTC’s current Mojo Score stands at 44.0, categorised as a Sell rating, a downgrade from the previous Hold grade as of 31 Dec 2025. This downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical and fundamental outlook. The company’s Market Cap Grade is 2, indicating a mid-cap status with moderate market capitalisation relative to peers.

The downgrade aligns with the technical indicators, signalling increased risk for investors. The bearish daily moving averages and monthly MACD, combined with weak volume trends, suggest that the stock may face further downside pressure unless there is a significant catalyst to reverse momentum.

Comparative Performance Within Sector

Within the Tour, Travel Related Services sector, IRCTC’s technical deterioration contrasts with some peers that have maintained or improved momentum. The sector itself has been volatile amid fluctuating travel demand and economic uncertainties. IRCTC’s relative weakness may be attributed to company-specific factors such as regulatory challenges or operational headwinds, which investors should monitor closely.

Given the current technical landscape, investors may consider evaluating alternative opportunities within the sector or broader market that demonstrate stronger momentum and more favourable technical setups.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

In summary, IRCTC’s technical parameters have shifted towards a bearish stance, with daily moving averages and monthly MACD signalling increased downside risk. The lack of strong volume support and neutral RSI readings suggest that the stock may continue to consolidate or decline in the near term.

Investors should exercise caution and consider the broader market context, including sector dynamics and macroeconomic factors impacting travel and tourism. Those holding the stock may want to monitor key support levels near ₹655 and watch for any reversal signals in momentum indicators before increasing exposure.

Long-term investors with a horizon beyond one year may find value in IRCTC’s historical five-year return of 131.81%, but the recent underperformance relative to the Sensex and technical downgrades warrant a careful reassessment of risk tolerance and portfolio allocation.

Technical Indicators Summary

• Daily Moving Averages: Bearish


• Weekly MACD: Mildly Bullish


• Monthly MACD: Bearish


• RSI (Weekly & Monthly): No Signal


• Bollinger Bands (Weekly & Monthly): Bearish


• KST (Weekly & Monthly): Bearish


• Dow Theory (Weekly): Mildly Bullish; (Monthly): No Trend


• OBV (Weekly & Monthly): No Trend

Given these mixed but predominantly negative signals, the technical outlook for IRCTC remains cautious, with a bias towards further weakness unless positive momentum indicators emerge.

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