Is HPCL technically bullish or bearish?

Overview of HPCL’s Technical Trend

As of 1 December 2025, HPCL’s overall technical trend shifted from bullish to mildly bullish. This subtle change suggests that while the stock retains positive momentum, the strength of its upward trajectory has moderated. Investors should interpret this as a cautionary signal that the stock may be consolidating or encountering resistance, rather than embarking on a fresh rally.

The oil sector, to which HPCL belongs, often experiences volatility linked to global crude prices, refining margins, and geopolitical factors. Hence, technical signals must be contextualised within these broader market dynamics.

Key Technical Indicators: Mixed Signals

Examining individual technical indicators provides a clearer picture of HPCL’s current market stance:

• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Both weekly and monthly MACD readings remain bullish, indicating that momentum is still favouring the upside over medium and longer terms.


• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Neither weekly nor monthly RSI readings provide a definitive signal, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold at present.


• Bollinger Bands: Mildly bullish readings on both weekly and monthly charts imply that price volatility is contained within an upward bias, but without strong breakout momentum.


• Moving Averages: Daily moving averages also signal a mildly bullish stance, reinforcing the notion of moderate upward pressure.


• KST (Know Sure Thing): Weekly KST is bullish, but the monthly KST is mildly bearish, reflecting some divergence between short-term optimism and longer-term caution.


• Dow Theory: Weekly readings are mildly bearish, while monthly readings are bullish, again highlighting mixed signals across timeframes.


• OBV (On-Balance Volume): No clear trend is evident on either weekly or monthly charts, indicating volume is not strongly confirming price moves.

These mixed signals suggest that while HPCL retains underlying bullish momentum, there are emerging signs of hesitation or consolidation. The divergence between weekly and monthly indicators points to a market in transition rather than a decisive directional move.

Price Action and Volatility

HPCL’s current price stands at ₹451.65, down from the previous close of ₹457.55. The stock’s 52-week high is ₹494.55, while the low is ₹287.55, indicating a wide trading range over the past year. Today’s intraday range between ₹449.25 and ₹460.75 shows moderate volatility but no breakout beyond recent resistance levels.

The recent price pullback of approximately 2.5% over the past week contrasts with the Sensex’s modest gain of 0.87% in the same period, signalling relative weakness in the short term. Similarly, the one-month return for HPCL is negative at -5.12%, while the Sensex gained 2.03%, further underscoring short-term underperformance.

Longer-Term Performance and Relative Strength

Despite recent short-term softness, HPCL’s year-to-date return of 10.43% slightly outpaces the Sensex’s 9.60%, reflecting resilience over the calendar year. Over the past year, HPCL has delivered a robust 17.91% return compared to the Sensex’s 7.32%, highlighting strong relative performance.

More impressively, HPCL’s three-year, five-year, and ten-year returns have significantly outperformed the benchmark, with gains of 189.54%, 223.55%, and 264.11% respectively, compared to the Sensex’s 35.33%, 91.78%, and 227.26%. This long-term outperformance underscores the company’s solid fundamentals and market positioning within the oil sector.

Technical Outlook: Bullish but Cautious

Integrating the technical data, HPCL’s current mildly bullish trend suggests a market that is cautiously optimistic. The dominant bullish MACD and weekly KST indicators support the view that the stock retains upward momentum. However, the absence of strong volume confirmation and mixed signals from Dow Theory and KST on monthly charts counsel prudence.

Investors should watch for confirmation of trend continuation through a sustained move above recent resistance levels near ₹460-470. Conversely, a breakdown below key support zones around ₹440 could signal a shift towards bearishness.

Given the oil sector’s sensitivity to external factors such as crude price fluctuations and regulatory changes, technical signals should be complemented with fundamental and macroeconomic analysis for a comprehensive investment decision.

Conclusion: A Mildly Bullish Stance with Watchful Eyes

HPCL’s technical profile as of December 2025 is best characterised as mildly bullish. The stock continues to benefit from positive momentum indicators, particularly on weekly charts, but the tempered signals on monthly timeframes and lack of volume confirmation suggest that the bullish trend is not without risks.

Short-term price declines relative to the Sensex highlight some caution among traders, while the long-term outperformance affirms the company’s strong market position. Investors should monitor key technical levels and broader sector developments closely to gauge whether HPCL can resume a more robust bullish trend or if a bearish phase may emerge.

In summary, HPCL is not decisively bullish or bearish but occupies a middle ground where cautious optimism prevails. This nuanced stance calls for a balanced approach, combining technical analysis with fundamental insights to navigate the stock’s near-term trajectory effectively.

Get 2 full years of MojoOne Premium for only Rs. 12,999. Subscribe for 1 year and we'll add another year FREE. Offer valid for a limited time. Start Saving Now →