ITC Ltd Falls 3.73%: 7 Key Factors Behind the Prolonged Downtrend

5 January: Volume Surge Amid Mixed Market Signals

ITC Ltd began the week with a notable surge in trading volume, recording nearly 1.2 crore shares traded, equivalent to a traded value of approximately ₹419.52 crores. The stock closed at Rs.349.70, down marginally by 0.13%, despite the volume spike. This activity occurred in a mixed market environment where the Sensex declined 0.18% and the FMCG sector gained 0.67%. The stock remained close to its 52-week low of Rs.345.25, trading below all key moving averages, signalling ongoing bearish momentum. The volume increase suggested cautious accumulation, but the technical backdrop remained weak.

6 January: Fresh 52-Week Low and Heavy Trading Pressure

On 6 January, ITC’s stock price fell sharply to a new 52-week low of Rs.343.3, closing at Rs.342.45, down 2.07%. The day saw exceptional trading volumes of 5.36 crore shares, with a traded value exceeding ₹1,83,699.39 lakhs. Despite the heavy volume, delivery volumes declined by 45.05%, indicating speculative or intraday trading rather than long-term accumulation. The stock underperformed both the Cigarettes/Tobacco sector, which fell 2.15%, and the Sensex, which declined 0.19%. The sustained selling pressure pushed the stock below all major moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend. The MarketsMOJO downgrade to a Sell rating and flat quarterly results contributed to the negative sentiment.

7 January: Continued Decline with Reduced Delivery Volumes

ITC’s downtrend persisted on 7 January, with the stock closing at Rs.341.35, down 0.32%. Delivery volumes dropped sharply by 66.64%, signalling waning investor commitment to holding shares overnight. The stock remained below all key moving averages, and the broader market showed mixed signals with the Sensex gaining 0.03%. The decline extended the four-day losing streak, cumulatively eroding over 14% of the stock’s value. This pattern suggested ongoing distribution rather than accumulation, with technical indicators pointing to further downside risk.

8 January: Exceptional Volume Surge Amid Signs of Consolidation

On 8 January, ITC saw a remarkable volume surge with 2.90 crore shares traded, valued at approximately ₹988.06 crore. The stock showed a marginal gain of 0.13%, closing near Rs.340.90, just 0.94% above its 52-week low. Despite the volume spike, delivery volumes declined by 60.99%, indicating speculative trading activity. The stock remained below all key moving averages, suggesting the broader trend was still bearish. The relative stability compared to the Sensex’s 1.41% decline and the FMCG sector’s modest 0.06% gain hinted at a possible consolidation phase, though clear directional conviction was lacking.

9 January: New 52-Week Low Amid Continued Downtrend

ITC’s downtrend extended to seven consecutive sessions, culminating in a fresh 52-week low of Rs.337.45 on 9 January. The stock closed at Rs.337.10, down 1.11% for the day and 3.73% for the week. Trading volume remained elevated with over 1.84 crore shares changing hands, but delivery volumes continued to decline, reinforcing distribution signals. The stock’s performance lagged the Sensex’s 0.89% fall and the FMCG sector’s 1.18% decline. Despite strong fundamentals such as a 33.4% latest ROE, 10.71% annual net sales growth, and a debt-free balance sheet, the technical weakness and sector headwinds dominated market sentiment. The MarketsMOJO Sell rating and a Mojo Score of 48.0 reflect this cautious outlook.

Weekly Price Performance: ITC Ltd vs Sensex

Key Takeaways

Positive Signals: Despite the downtrend, ITC maintains strong long-term fundamentals including a latest ROE of 33.4%, steady net sales growth of 10.71% annually, and a debt-free balance sheet. Institutional ownership remains high at 84.83%, indicating confidence in the company’s core business. The stock’s proximity to 52-week lows may attract value investors seeking entry points.

Cautionary Signals: The stock has declined for seven consecutive sessions, losing over 16% in that span, with multiple fresh 52-week lows. Heavy trading volumes accompanied by declining delivery volumes suggest distribution rather than accumulation. The downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO and a Mojo Score of 48.0 reflect deteriorating technical and momentum indicators. ITC trades below all major moving averages, signalling persistent bearish momentum. Sectoral headwinds in FMCG and tobacco continue to weigh on the stock.

Conclusion

ITC Ltd’s performance in the week ending 9 January 2026 was marked by sustained selling pressure, multiple 52-week lows, and a downgrade to a Sell rating, reflecting a challenging near-term outlook. While the company’s strong fundamentals and institutional backing provide a solid foundation, technical weakness and sector-specific headwinds have dominated price action. The divergence between heavy volumes and declining delivery participation suggests that distribution is prevailing over accumulation. Investors should monitor volume-price dynamics and sector developments closely to assess whether ITC can stabilise or if the downtrend will continue. For now, the stock remains under pressure amid a cautious market environment.

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