High-Value Trading Amidst Price Weakness
ITC Ltd. emerged as one of the most actively traded stocks by value on the trading session, with a total traded volume of 1,81,22,365 shares and a turnover exceeding ₹629 crore. The stock opened at ₹350.25, touched an intraday high of ₹350.7, but succumbed to selling pressure to close near the day’s low at ₹344.45. This represents a decline of 1.63% from the previous close of ₹349.7. The fresh 52-week low of ₹343.3 underscores the sustained weakness in the share price over recent sessions.
Over the past four trading days, ITC has recorded a cumulative loss of 14.62%, reflecting a notable correction in the stock. This decline is in line with the broader FMCG sector’s performance, which saw a 1.81% drop on the day, while the Sensex declined by a more modest 0.32%. The stock’s underperformance relative to the benchmark index highlights sector-specific challenges and investor caution.
Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Momentum
From a technical standpoint, ITC is trading below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong downtrend across multiple timeframes. Such positioning typically deters short-term and medium-term investors, as it suggests a lack of upward momentum. The stock’s falling investor participation is further evidenced by a sharp 45.05% decline in delivery volume on 5 January 2026, which stood at 3.07 crore shares compared to the five-day average. This reduction in delivery volume points to waning conviction among long-term holders and institutional investors.
Institutional Interest and Market Capitalisation
ITC Ltd. remains a large-cap entity with a market capitalisation of ₹4,36,070 crore, underscoring its prominence in the FMCG sector. However, its MarketsMOJO Mojo Score has deteriorated to 48.0, resulting in a downgrade from a 'Hold' to a 'Sell' rating as of 29 December 2025. The Mojo Grade of 'Sell' reflects concerns over the company’s near-term prospects and technical weakness. Additionally, the stock’s Market Cap Grade is rated at 1, indicating limited upside potential relative to its size and valuation metrics.
Liquidity and Trading Viability
Despite the bearish price action, ITC’s liquidity remains robust. The stock’s traded value comfortably supports trade sizes up to ₹72.84 crore based on 2% of the five-day average traded value, making it suitable for institutional and high-volume traders. This liquidity ensures that large orders can be executed without significant price impact, although the prevailing sentiment suggests cautious positioning by market participants.
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Sectoral Context and Comparative Performance
The FMCG sector, traditionally viewed as defensive, has faced headwinds in recent weeks due to inflationary pressures and changing consumer spending patterns. ITC’s inline performance with the sector’s 1.81% decline suggests that the company is not immune to these macroeconomic challenges. However, its sharper four-day cumulative fall of 14.62% relative to sector peers indicates company-specific concerns or profit-taking by investors.
Comparatively, the Sensex’s modest 0.32% decline on the same day highlights the relative weakness in FMCG stocks like ITC. This divergence may prompt investors to reassess their sector allocations, favouring more resilient or growth-oriented segments within the broader market.
Outlook and Investor Considerations
Given the current technical and fundamental signals, ITC Ltd. appears to be under pressure from both institutional and retail investors. The downgrade to a 'Sell' Mojo Grade and the breach of key moving averages suggest that the stock may face further downside risk in the near term. Investors should closely monitor delivery volumes and price action for signs of capitulation or a potential reversal.
However, ITC’s large market capitalisation and liquidity profile continue to make it a key stock within the FMCG sector, attracting attention from long-term investors seeking value entry points. The company’s ability to navigate inflationary challenges and sustain earnings growth will be critical to restoring investor confidence.
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Institutional Order Flow and Market Sentiment
Analysis of order flow data reveals a cautious stance among institutional investors. The sharp decline in delivery volume by 45.05% compared to the five-day average suggests reduced long-term accumulation. This is often a precursor to further price weakness, as institutional players tend to lead market trends. The stock’s inability to sustain levels above its short-term moving averages further reinforces the bearish outlook.
Market participants should also consider the broader macroeconomic environment, including inflation trends, interest rate policies, and consumer demand dynamics, which continue to influence FMCG stocks. ITC’s performance will likely remain sensitive to these factors in the coming weeks.
Summary
In summary, ITC Ltd. remains a focal point of high-value trading activity but is currently grappling with significant downward pressure. The stock’s technical deterioration, downgrade to a 'Sell' rating, and declining institutional participation paint a cautious picture for investors. While liquidity remains ample, the risk-reward profile suggests prudence, with potential opportunities likely to emerge only after a sustained recovery in price and sentiment.
Investors are advised to monitor key technical levels and sectoral developments closely before committing fresh capital to ITC Ltd.
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