Recent Price Movement and Market Context
On 14 Jan 2026, ITC Ltd. touched its lowest price point in the last year at Rs.333.7, a level not seen since early 2025. This decline comes amid a broader market environment where the Sensex opened lower at 83,358.54, down 269.15 points (-0.32%), though it has since marginally recovered to trade near 83,615.32, a negligible change of -0.01%. The Sensex remains approximately 3.04% below its 52-week high of 86,159.02. Notably, small-cap stocks led gains today with the BSE Small Cap index rising by 0.2%, while ITC’s share price underperformed relative to its sector peers.
ITC’s stock has been trading below all key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, signalling sustained bearish momentum. This technical positioning underscores the challenges the stock faces in regaining upward momentum in the near term.
Performance Metrics and Comparative Analysis
Over the past year, ITC Ltd. has delivered a total return of -23.36%, significantly lagging behind the Sensex’s positive 9.23% return over the same period. The stock’s 52-week high was Rs.471.3, indicating a substantial decline of nearly 29% from that peak. This underperformance extends beyond the last year, with ITC also trailing the BSE500 index over the last three years, one year, and three months, highlighting a persistent trend of subdued returns.
Despite the recent price weakness, ITC’s market capitalisation grade remains at 1, reflecting its status as a large-cap entity. However, the company’s Mojo Score has deteriorated to 48.0, accompanied by a downgrade in its Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell as of 29 Dec 2025. This shift reflects a reassessment of the stock’s near-term prospects based on recent financial and operational data.
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Financial Performance and Dividend Trends
ITC’s recent quarterly results for September 2025 were largely flat, contributing to the cautious sentiment surrounding the stock. The company’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) on a yearly basis stands at a relatively low 51.68%, which may be viewed as conservative compared to some peers in the FMCG sector. Additionally, the debtors turnover ratio for the half-year period is at 12.97 times, indicating a slower collection cycle relative to historical benchmarks.
Long-Term Fundamentals and Valuation Metrics
Despite the recent price softness, ITC Ltd. maintains strong long-term fundamental attributes. The company boasts an average return on equity (ROE) of 27.82%, with the latest reported ROE at 33.4%, reflecting efficient capital utilisation. Net sales have exhibited healthy growth, expanding at an annual rate of 10.71%, underscoring steady demand for the company’s product portfolio.
ITC’s balance sheet remains robust, with an average debt-to-equity ratio of zero, indicating a debt-free status that supports financial stability. The stock’s price-to-book value ratio is 5.9, suggesting a fair valuation relative to its intrinsic worth. Compared to its peers, ITC is trading at a discount to historical average valuations, which may be a factor in its current market pricing.
Profitability metrics also show improvement, with the company’s profits rising by 18% over the past year despite the stock’s negative return. The price/earnings to growth (PEG) ratio stands at 1, signalling that earnings growth is broadly in line with the stock’s valuation.
Shareholding and Institutional Interest
Institutional investors hold a significant stake in ITC Ltd., with 84.83% of shares owned by these entities. This high level of institutional ownership reflects confidence in the company’s long-term fundamentals and provides a degree of stability to the stock’s shareholder base.
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Summary of Key Concerns
The stock’s recent decline to a 52-week low is attributable to a combination of subdued near-term financial results, valuation pressures, and technical weakness. The downgrade in Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell reflects these factors, alongside the stock’s underperformance relative to the broader market and sector indices. The flat quarterly results and relatively low dividend payout ratio have also contributed to cautious market sentiment.
Market and Sector Positioning
ITC operates within the FMCG sector, which has seen mixed performance in recent months. While the broader market indices have shown resilience, ITC’s share price has lagged behind, reflecting company-specific challenges. The stock’s trading below all major moving averages indicates a lack of upward momentum, which may continue to weigh on investor confidence in the short term.
Conclusion
ITC Ltd.’s fall to Rs.333.7, its lowest level in 52 weeks, highlights the stock’s ongoing struggles amid a complex market backdrop. While the company retains strong long-term fundamentals and institutional backing, recent financial metrics and valuation concerns have contributed to the current price weakness. The stock’s performance remains under close observation as it navigates these headwinds within the FMCG sector.
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