Kennametal India Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Downturn

Technical Trend Shift and Price Action

Kennametal India’s share price closed at ₹2,112.95 on 5 Feb 2026, down 4.04% from the previous close of ₹2,201.90. The intraday range saw a high of ₹2,199.90 and a low of ₹2,100.00, indicating increased volatility. This decline comes amid a broader technical trend change from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling a loss of upward momentum that had been observed in recent weeks.

The stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹2,745.10, while still comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹1,932.10. This range suggests that while the stock has room to fall, it has also demonstrated resilience over the past year. However, the current technical signals caution investors about potential further weakness.

MACD and Momentum Indicators Confirm Bearish Outlook

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a key momentum oscillator, is bearish on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This dual timeframe bearishness indicates sustained downward momentum rather than a short-lived correction. The MACD line remains below its signal line, reinforcing the negative momentum.

Similarly, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which aggregates multiple rate-of-change measures, is bearish on weekly and monthly charts. This alignment across momentum indicators underscores the strength of the current downtrend.

RSI and Bollinger Bands Signal Caution

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests that while the stock is not yet oversold, it lacks the bullish momentum needed to reverse the downtrend imminently.

Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly timeframes are mildly bearish, indicating that price volatility is increasing with a downward bias. The stock price is approaching the lower band, which often acts as a support level, but the mild bearishness suggests this support may be tested further.

Moving Averages and Dow Theory Analysis

Daily moving averages are mildly bearish, with the stock trading below its short-term averages, signalling a lack of immediate buying interest. The Dow Theory assessment shows no clear trend on the weekly chart but a mildly bearish stance on the monthly chart, reflecting a cautious market environment with a tilt towards downside risk.

Volume and Market Cap Considerations

On-balance volume (OBV) data is inconclusive for both weekly and monthly periods, indicating that volume trends have not decisively confirmed the price movement. This lack of volume confirmation may suggest that the current price decline is not yet fully supported by strong selling pressure, leaving room for potential volatility.

Kennametal India holds a Market Cap Grade of 3, reflecting a mid-tier capitalisation within the industrial manufacturing sector. The company’s Mojo Score has declined to 44.0, resulting in a downgrade from Hold to Sell as of 24 Dec 2025. This downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical and fundamental outlook assessed by MarketsMOJO’s comprehensive evaluation.

Comparative Performance and Returns Analysis

Despite the recent technical weakness, Kennametal India has delivered mixed returns relative to the Sensex benchmark. Over the past week, the stock outperformed with an 8.57% gain compared to Sensex’s 1.79%. However, this short-term strength has not sustained over longer periods.

On a one-month basis, the stock declined marginally by 0.36%, outperforming the Sensex’s 2.27% fall. Year-to-date returns show a modest 0.85% gain against a 1.65% loss in the Sensex, indicating some resilience in early 2026.

Conversely, over the one-year horizon, Kennametal India underperformed significantly with a 7.33% loss, while the Sensex gained 6.66%. The three-year return of -1.13% also lags the Sensex’s robust 37.76% gain, highlighting challenges in maintaining growth momentum.

Longer-term investors have been rewarded, with five-year returns of 121.10% substantially outpacing the Sensex’s 65.60%. Over ten years, however, the stock’s 193.47% gain trails the Sensex’s 244.38%, suggesting that while the company has delivered solid absolute returns, it has underperformed the broader market in the decade-long view.

Sector and Industry Context

Kennametal India operates within the industrial manufacturing sector, a space often sensitive to economic cycles and capital expenditure trends. The current technical deterioration may reflect broader sectoral headwinds, including raw material cost pressures and subdued demand from key end markets.

Investors should consider these sector dynamics alongside the company’s technical signals when evaluating the stock’s near-term prospects.

Investment Implications and Outlook

The downgrade to a Sell rating and the alignment of bearish technical indicators suggest that Kennametal India’s stock may face further pressure in the coming weeks. The absence of strong RSI signals implies that the stock is not yet oversold, leaving room for additional declines before a potential technical rebound.

Investors should monitor key support levels near the 52-week low of ₹1,932.10, as a breach could accelerate selling. Conversely, a recovery above daily moving averages and a positive MACD crossover would be required to signal a reversal of the current downtrend.

Given the mixed fundamental backdrop and sector challenges, a cautious approach is warranted. Traders may consider reducing exposure or employing hedging strategies until clearer technical confirmation emerges.

Summary of Technical Ratings

MarketsMOJO’s comprehensive technical assessment assigns Kennametal India a Mojo Score of 44.0 and a Sell grade, reflecting the bearish momentum across multiple indicators:

• MACD: Bearish on weekly and monthly charts
• RSI: Neutral, no clear signal
• Bollinger Bands: Mildly bearish on weekly and monthly
• Moving Averages: Mildly bearish on daily timeframe
• KST: Bearish on weekly and monthly
• Dow Theory: No trend weekly, mildly bearish monthly

This comprehensive downgrade from Hold to Sell on 24 Dec 2025 underscores the technical deterioration and advises prudence for investors.

Conclusion

Kennametal India Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes highlight a clear shift towards bearish momentum. The convergence of negative signals from MACD, KST, and moving averages, combined with a lack of bullish RSI confirmation, paints a cautious picture for the stock’s near-term trajectory. While the company has demonstrated strong long-term returns, current market conditions and technical indicators suggest that investors should approach with caution and consider alternative opportunities within the industrial manufacturing sector.

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