Manappuram Finance Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Indicator Signals

Recent Price Movement and Market Context

On 1 February 2026, Manappuram Finance’s share price closed at ₹284.80, down 4.04% from the previous close of ₹296.80. The intraday range saw a high of ₹293.65 and a low of ₹270.15, reflecting heightened volatility. The stock remains below its 52-week high of ₹320.95 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹169.10, indicating a broad trading range over the past year.

Comparatively, the stock has underperformed the Sensex in the short term, with a one-week return of -3.33% against the Sensex’s 0.90%. Over one month, Manappuram Finance declined 8.07%, while the Sensex fell 2.84%. Year-to-date, the stock is down 7.65%, lagging the Sensex’s 3.46% decline. However, the longer-term performance remains robust, with a one-year return of 42.51% versus the Sensex’s 7.18%, and an impressive ten-year return of 895.80% compared to the Sensex’s 230.79%.

Technical Indicator Analysis: Mixed Signals

The technical landscape for Manappuram Finance is nuanced. The overall trend has softened from bullish to mildly bullish, reflecting a cautious stance among traders and analysts.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The weekly MACD is mildly bearish, signalling a potential short-term weakening in momentum. Conversely, the monthly MACD remains bullish, suggesting that the longer-term trend retains upward bias. This divergence indicates that while short-term momentum may be faltering, the broader trend could still support gains.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Both weekly and monthly RSI readings currently provide no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for directional movement based on upcoming market catalysts.

Bollinger Bands: Weekly Bollinger Bands are bearish, indicating increased volatility and a potential downward pressure on price. However, the monthly Bollinger Bands are mildly bullish, reinforcing the notion of a longer-term positive trend despite short-term fluctuations.

Moving Averages: Daily moving averages are mildly bullish, with the stock price hovering near key support levels. This could provide a foundation for a rebound if buying interest returns.

KST (Know Sure Thing): Both weekly and monthly KST indicators are bullish, signalling positive momentum in the medium to long term. This aligns with the monthly MACD and Bollinger Bands, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Dow Theory: Weekly readings are mildly bearish, reflecting short-term caution, while monthly readings remain bullish, consistent with the broader trend.

On-Balance Volume (OBV): Weekly OBV is mildly bullish, suggesting that volume trends support price gains in the near term. The monthly OBV shows no clear trend, indicating volume is not strongly confirming price direction over the longer horizon.

Mojo Score and Rating Upgrade

Manappuram Finance currently holds a Mojo Score of 58.0, reflecting a moderate technical and fundamental standing. The Mojo Grade was recently upgraded from Sell to Hold on 18 February 2025, signalling improved investor sentiment and a stabilising outlook. The Market Cap Grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-sized market capitalisation relative to peers in the Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC) sector.

This upgrade aligns with the mixed but cautiously positive technical signals, suggesting that while the stock is not yet a strong buy, it is no longer a sell candidate. Investors may consider holding positions while monitoring for confirmation of trend direction.

Comparative Performance and Sector Context

Within the NBFC sector, Manappuram Finance’s technical indicators present a more nuanced picture compared to some peers that have maintained stronger bullish momentum. The stock’s recent underperformance relative to the Sensex and sector benchmarks over the short term may reflect sector-specific headwinds or profit-taking after strong gains in prior years.

However, the long-term returns remain compelling, with a 3-year return of 154.40% and a 5-year return of 82.45%, both significantly outperforming the Sensex. This track record supports the view that the company has solid fundamentals and growth prospects, which technical indicators partially corroborate.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

Given the current technical setup, investors should approach Manappuram Finance with a balanced perspective. The mildly bullish daily moving averages and bullish KST indicators suggest potential for price recovery, but the weekly bearish MACD and Bollinger Bands caution against aggressive buying without confirmation.

Monitoring the RSI for emerging signals and watching volume trends via OBV will be critical in the coming weeks. A sustained move above recent resistance levels near ₹295-₹300 could validate a return to stronger bullish momentum. Conversely, a breakdown below support near ₹270 may signal further downside risk.

Overall, the stock’s technical profile supports a Hold rating, consistent with the Mojo Grade, while investors await clearer directional cues.

Summary

Manappuram Finance Ltd’s technical indicators reveal a stock at a crossroads, with short-term momentum showing signs of weakness while longer-term signals remain constructive. The recent downgrade in trend from bullish to mildly bullish reflects this uncertainty. Investors should weigh the mixed signals carefully, considering the stock’s strong historical returns and recent Mojo Grade upgrade to Hold.

Price action near key support and resistance levels, combined with volume and momentum indicators, will be crucial in determining the next directional move. For now, a cautious stance with a focus on risk management is advisable.

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