Technical Momentum Shift and Indicator Analysis
Manappuram Finance’s current price stands at ₹296.00, up 1.49% from the previous close of ₹291.65, with intraday highs touching ₹298.85. This price action reflects a strengthening momentum after a period of consolidation. The stock’s 52-week range remains broad, with a low of ₹169.10 and a high of ₹320.95, indicating significant volatility but also ample upside potential.
On the technical front, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is bullish on both weekly and monthly charts, signalling sustained upward momentum. The MACD’s positive crossover and widening histogram suggest that buying pressure is intensifying, which often precedes further price appreciation.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral on weekly and monthly timeframes, indicating that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral RSI suggests that the current rally has room to run without immediate risk of a sharp correction due to overextension.
Bollinger Bands analysis shows a bullish stance weekly and mildly bullish monthly, with the price trending near the upper band. This positioning often indicates strong momentum but also warrants monitoring for potential volatility spikes.
Daily moving averages have turned bullish, with the stock price trading above key averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This crossover is a classic technical signal that often attracts momentum traders and institutional investors alike.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, a momentum oscillator, confirms bullishness on both weekly and monthly charts, reinforcing the positive outlook. Additionally, Dow Theory assessments classify the weekly trend as mildly bullish and the monthly trend as bullish, further validating the upward momentum.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows a mildly bullish trend weekly but lacks a clear trend monthly, suggesting that volume support is building but not yet fully confirmed over longer periods.
Comparative Performance and Market Context
Despite recent short-term underperformance relative to the Sensex—Manappuram Finance posted a 1-week return of -1.37% compared to the Sensex’s 0.31%—the stock’s longer-term returns remain impressive. Over one year, the stock has surged 48.45%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 7.88% gain. Over three and five years, the stock’s returns of 163.23% and 89.62% respectively dwarf the Sensex’s 39.16% and 78.38% returns, highlighting the company’s strong growth trajectory within the NBFC sector.
Most notably, the 10-year return of 934.97% compared to the Sensex’s 231.98% underscores Manappuram Finance’s exceptional long-term value creation for shareholders.
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Mojo Score Upgrade and Market Capitalisation Insights
MarketsMOJO has upgraded Manappuram Finance’s Mojo Grade from Sell to Hold as of 18 February 2025, reflecting improved technical and fundamental outlooks. The current Mojo Score stands at 65.0, signalling moderate confidence in the stock’s near-term prospects. The Market Cap Grade is rated 3, indicating a mid-cap status that balances growth potential with manageable risk.
This upgrade aligns with the technical trend shift from mildly bullish to bullish, suggesting that the stock is entering a phase of stronger price momentum supported by both technical and fundamental factors.
Sectoral and Industry Positioning
Operating within the Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC) sector, Manappuram Finance benefits from a growing demand for alternative credit sources in India’s expanding economy. The NBFC sector has been under scrutiny due to regulatory changes and credit quality concerns, but Manappuram’s robust technical indicators and strong returns position it favourably against peers.
Its ability to sustain bullish momentum amidst sectoral headwinds highlights operational resilience and investor trust. The stock’s technical indicators, particularly the bullish MACD and moving averages, suggest that market participants are increasingly optimistic about its earnings growth and asset quality improvements.
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Investor Implications and Outlook
For investors, the technical upgrades in Manappuram Finance’s chart suggest a favourable entry point, especially given the stock’s strong long-term performance and recent momentum build. The bullish MACD and moving averages indicate that the stock could continue to trend higher, while the neutral RSI reduces concerns of an imminent pullback.
However, the mildly bullish OBV and Bollinger Bands caution that volume confirmation and volatility should be monitored closely. Investors should also consider sectoral risks and macroeconomic factors impacting NBFCs, including interest rate movements and regulatory developments.
Overall, the stock’s technical profile combined with its fundamental strength and upgraded Mojo Grade to Hold makes it a compelling candidate for investors seeking exposure to India’s NBFC growth story with a balanced risk-reward profile.
Summary of Technical Ratings
Key technical signals for Manappuram Finance Ltd are as follows:
- MACD: Weekly and Monthly – Bullish
- RSI: Weekly and Monthly – Neutral (No Signal)
- Bollinger Bands: Weekly – Bullish; Monthly – Mildly Bullish
- Moving Averages (Daily): Bullish
- KST: Weekly and Monthly – Bullish
- Dow Theory: Weekly – Mildly Bullish; Monthly – Bullish
- OBV: Weekly – Mildly Bullish; Monthly – No Trend
This constellation of indicators supports a constructive outlook, with technical momentum building steadily.
Conclusion
Manappuram Finance Ltd’s recent technical upgrades and sustained price momentum mark a significant development for investors tracking the NBFC sector. The stock’s strong long-term returns, combined with bullish technical indicators and an improved Mojo Grade, suggest that it is well-positioned to capitalise on favourable market conditions. While short-term volatility and sector risks remain, the overall technical and fundamental picture points to a positive trajectory for Manappuram Finance in the coming months.
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