Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. Faces Mildly Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Shifts

Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement

MRPL’s current price stands at ₹142.65, down 1.07% from the previous close of ₹144.20. The stock’s intraday range on 31 Dec 2025 was between ₹141.40 and ₹144.85, reflecting moderate volatility. Over the past 52 weeks, MRPL has traded between a low of ₹98.95 and a high of ₹185.00, indicating a wide price band and significant historical price swings.

The recent technical trend has shifted from a sideways consolidation to a mildly bearish pattern, signalling a potential weakening in upward momentum. This is corroborated by the weekly MACD and Bollinger Bands both indicating mild bearishness, while the monthly MACD and Bollinger Bands also align with this negative bias. Conversely, the daily moving averages present a mildly bullish signal, suggesting short-term support may still be intact despite broader caution.

MACD and RSI Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a key momentum oscillator, shows a mildly bearish stance on both weekly and monthly charts. This suggests that the stock’s momentum is decelerating, with the MACD line likely below the signal line, indicating selling pressure. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) further confirms this bearish momentum, currently positioned in a range that signals weakening buying interest. However, the monthly RSI does not present a clear signal, implying that longer-term momentum remains neutral or undecided.

This divergence between weekly and monthly RSI readings highlights the stock’s current technical uncertainty, where short-term bearishness contrasts with a lack of definitive long-term directional bias.

Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages

Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly charts are bearish, indicating that MRPL’s price is trending towards the lower band, a sign of increased volatility and potential downward pressure. This technical setup often precedes further declines or consolidation phases, especially if the price fails to rebound towards the middle band.

In contrast, the daily moving averages are mildly bullish, suggesting that in the very short term, the stock may find support around key moving average levels. This could provide a cushion against sharper declines, but the overall trend remains cautious given the broader bearish signals.

Additional Technical Indicators: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator presents a mixed picture: bullish on the weekly timeframe but bearish on the monthly. This suggests that while short-term momentum may be improving, longer-term trends remain under pressure. The Dow Theory assessment aligns with this, showing a mildly bearish weekly outlook but a mildly bullish monthly perspective, reinforcing the notion of short-term weakness amid longer-term resilience.

On the volume front, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is mildly bearish on the weekly chart and shows no clear trend on the monthly chart. This indicates that selling volume has slightly outweighed buying volume recently, but the absence of a strong monthly trend suggests volume dynamics are not decisively favouring either bulls or bears over the longer term.

Comparative Performance Against Sensex

MRPL’s recent returns have lagged behind the broader Sensex benchmark. Over the past week, MRPL declined by 2.76%, compared to Sensex’s 0.99% fall. The one-month performance is more pronounced, with MRPL down 9.63% versus Sensex’s 1.20% decline. Year-to-date, MRPL is down 3.84%, while Sensex has gained 8.36%, highlighting underperformance in the current calendar year.

However, MRPL’s longer-term returns remain impressive. Over three years, the stock has surged 154.28%, significantly outperforming Sensex’s 39.17%. The five-year return is even more striking at 305.26%, compared to Sensex’s 77.34%. Over a decade, MRPL has delivered 119.46%, trailing Sensex’s 226.18%, but still reflecting substantial capital appreciation.

This disparity between short-term underperformance and long-term outperformance suggests that while technical momentum has weakened recently, the company’s fundamental growth trajectory and market position in the oil sector remain robust.

Mojo Score and Rating Update

MarketsMOJO has downgraded MRPL’s Mojo Grade from Hold to Sell as of 30 Dec 2025, reflecting the deteriorating technical outlook. The current Mojo Score stands at 48.0, indicating below-average momentum and quality metrics. The Market Cap Grade is 3, signalling a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers.

This downgrade is consistent with the mixed technical signals and recent price weakness, suggesting investors should exercise caution and consider risk management strategies when holding or acquiring MRPL shares.

Investor Implications and Outlook

Given the current technical landscape, MRPL appears to be at a crossroads. The mildly bearish weekly MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands suggest that the stock may face downward pressure in the near term. However, the mildly bullish daily moving averages and weekly KST indicate potential short-term support levels that could limit sharp declines.

Investors should weigh these mixed signals carefully. The recent downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO underscores the need for prudence, especially for those with shorter investment horizons. Meanwhile, the stock’s strong long-term performance and position within the oil sector may appeal to investors with a higher risk tolerance and a longer-term view.

Monitoring key technical levels, such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, alongside volume trends, will be crucial in assessing whether MRPL can regain upward momentum or if further downside is likely. Additionally, broader market conditions and oil sector dynamics will continue to influence the stock’s trajectory.

Summary

In summary, Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. is exhibiting a shift towards a mildly bearish technical trend, with weekly and monthly indicators signalling caution. The downgrade in Mojo Grade to Sell reflects this technical deterioration, despite the stock’s solid long-term returns. Investors should remain vigilant, balancing the short-term technical risks against the company’s fundamental strengths and sector outlook.

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