Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. Faces Technical Momentum Shift Amid Market Volatility

Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement

MRPL’s current share price stands at ₹143.50, down 5.31% from the previous close of ₹151.55, with intraday trading ranging between ₹142.65 and ₹149.85. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹185.00 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹98.95, indicating a wide trading range over the past year. The recent price drop has coincided with a shift in the technical trend from mildly bullish to mildly bearish, signalling a potential change in market sentiment.

On a broader scale, MRPL’s returns have been mixed when compared to the Sensex benchmark. Over the past week, the stock outperformed the Sensex with a 2.32% gain versus the index’s 0.75% decline. However, over the one-month and year-to-date periods, MRPL underperformed, falling 3.33% and 5.72% respectively, compared to Sensex declines of 1.98% and 2.32%. Longer-term returns remain robust, with a three-year gain of 145.30% significantly outpacing the Sensex’s 36.79%, and a five-year return of 256.97% dwarfing the index’s 68.52%. This disparity highlights the stock’s strong historical performance despite recent technical weakness.

MACD and Momentum Indicators Signal Bearish Shift

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a key momentum oscillator, has turned mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts. This suggests that the short-term momentum is weakening relative to the longer-term trend, often a precursor to further price declines or consolidation. The bearish MACD readings align with the recent price drop and the stock’s failure to sustain levels above ₹150.

Complementing the MACD, the KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator also reflects a mildly bearish stance on weekly and monthly timeframes, reinforcing the view of waning momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral with no clear signal on weekly or monthly charts, indicating that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold at present. This neutral RSI suggests that while momentum is deteriorating, there is no immediate indication of a sharp reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages Confirm Downside Pressure

Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and price levels relative to moving averages, have shifted to a bearish configuration on both weekly and monthly charts. The stock price is currently trading near the lower band, signalling increased downside pressure and heightened volatility. This technical setup often precedes further declines or sideways movement until volatility subsides.

Interestingly, daily moving averages still maintain a mildly bullish signal, indicating some short-term support. This divergence between daily and longer-term indicators suggests that while the immediate trend may hold some resilience, the broader outlook is increasingly cautious. Investors should monitor whether daily averages hold or give way to confirm a sustained downtrend.

Volume and Dow Theory Insights

On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis presents a mixed picture. While the weekly OBV shows no clear trend, the monthly OBV remains bullish, suggesting that longer-term accumulation may still be underway despite recent price weakness. This divergence between volume and price action could indicate that institutional investors are maintaining positions, awaiting clearer directional cues.

Dow Theory assessments add further nuance. The weekly chart shows no definitive trend, while the monthly chart is mildly bearish. This suggests that the broader market forces influencing MRPL are currently indecisive, with a slight bias towards downside risk. Investors should watch for confirmation of trend direction in coming weeks to better gauge the stock’s trajectory.

Mojo Score and Rating Revision Reflect Cautious Outlook

MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system assigns MRPL a Mojo Score of 54.0, placing it in the ‘Hold’ category. This represents a downgrade from the previous ‘Buy’ rating as of 19 January 2026, reflecting the recent deterioration in technical parameters and price momentum. The Market Cap Grade remains at 3, indicating a mid-tier capitalisation within the oil sector.

This rating adjustment underscores the need for investors to exercise caution. While MRPL’s fundamentals and long-term growth prospects remain intact, the current technical signals advise a more measured approach until clearer momentum emerges.

Sector Context and Comparative Performance

Operating within the oil sector, MRPL’s technical challenges mirror broader industry volatility driven by fluctuating crude prices, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory developments. The oil sector has experienced mixed performance recently, with some stocks showing resilience while others face pressure from global supply-demand imbalances.

MRPL’s relative underperformance over the one-month and year-to-date periods compared to the Sensex highlights sector-specific headwinds. However, its strong multi-year returns demonstrate the company’s capacity to generate significant shareholder value over time, supported by refining capacity expansions and petrochemical integration.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

In summary, MRPL’s recent technical parameter changes signal a shift towards a more cautious stance. The mildly bearish MACD and Bollinger Bands, combined with a downgrade in Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold, suggest that the stock is currently facing downward momentum pressures. However, the neutral RSI and mildly bullish daily moving averages indicate that immediate downside may be limited, offering potential support near current levels.

Investors should closely monitor key technical levels, particularly the ability of the stock to hold above ₹140 and the behaviour of moving averages in the coming sessions. A sustained break below these levels could confirm a deeper correction, while a rebound supported by volume could signal a resumption of the uptrend.

Given the mixed signals and sector volatility, a balanced approach is advisable. Long-term investors may view recent weakness as an opportunity to accumulate selectively, while short-term traders should await clearer confirmation of trend direction before committing.

Long-Term Performance Highlights

Despite recent technical challenges, MRPL’s long-term performance remains impressive. The stock has delivered a 145.30% return over three years and an exceptional 256.97% gain over five years, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s respective 36.79% and 68.52% returns. Even over a decade, MRPL has posted a solid 121.28% return, underscoring its resilience and growth potential within the oil sector.

This strong historical performance provides a foundation of confidence for investors, even as short-term technical indicators suggest caution.

Conclusion

Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. currently faces a technical momentum shift that tempers near-term optimism. The downgrade to a Hold rating and the mildly bearish signals from MACD, Bollinger Bands, and KST indicators highlight the need for vigilance. However, neutral RSI readings and daily moving averages offer some support, suggesting that the stock may consolidate before determining its next directional move.

Investors should weigh these technical signals alongside fundamental factors and sector dynamics to make informed decisions. Monitoring volume trends and broader market cues will be critical in assessing whether MRPL can regain bullish momentum or if further downside lies ahead.

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