Technical Trend Overview
Recent analysis reveals that NHPC Ltd’s technical trend has deteriorated from mildly bearish to outright bearish. This shift is underscored by a combination of moving averages, momentum oscillators, and volume-based indicators that collectively suggest weakening price strength. The daily moving averages are firmly bearish, indicating that the stock is trading below key short-term averages, which often acts as resistance to upward price movement.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a nuanced picture: the weekly MACD remains mildly bullish, hinting at some short-term positive momentum, but the monthly MACD has turned mildly bearish, signalling longer-term weakness. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings suggests that while there may be intermittent rallies, the broader trend is losing steam.
Momentum and Volatility Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral zones without indicating overbought or oversold conditions. This lack of directional RSI momentum implies that the stock is in a consolidation phase, but given other bearish signals, the risk of downside remains elevated.
Bollinger Bands further reinforce the bearish outlook. On a weekly basis, the bands are mildly bearish, with the stock price gravitating towards the lower band, suggesting increased selling pressure. The monthly Bollinger Bands are outright bearish, indicating sustained volatility and a potential for further downside movement.
Volume and Trend Confirmation
Volume-based indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) are mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, signalling that selling volume is outpacing buying volume. This trend is corroborated by the KST (Know Sure Thing) oscillator, which is bearish weekly and mildly bearish monthly, reinforcing the negative momentum.
Dow Theory assessments align with these findings, showing mildly bearish signals on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This suggests that the broader market sentiment towards NHPC Ltd is cautious, with the potential for further price declines if support levels fail to hold.
Price Performance and Market Comparison
NHPC Ltd’s current price of ₹78.20 is closer to its 52-week low of ₹71.01 than its 52-week high of ₹92.30, reflecting recent weakness. Intraday trading on 1 Feb 2026 saw the stock fluctuate between ₹77.22 and ₹78.87, indicating limited upward momentum.
When compared to the benchmark Sensex, NHPC Ltd has outperformed over longer horizons but underperformed in the short term. For instance, the stock returned 3.85% over the past week versus the Sensex’s 0.90%, but it declined 0.51% over the past month while the Sensex fell 2.84%. Year-to-date, NHPC Ltd is down 1.21%, slightly better than the Sensex’s 3.46% decline. Over one year, the stock gained 3.58%, lagging the Sensex’s 7.18% rise. However, over three, five, and ten years, NHPC Ltd has significantly outperformed the Sensex, with returns of 80.39%, 225.16%, and 273.27% respectively, compared to the Sensex’s 38.27%, 77.74%, and 230.79%.
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Mojo Score and Grade Implications
MarketsMOJO assigns NHPC Ltd a Mojo Score of 30.0, reflecting a cautious stance on the stock. The Mojo Grade was downgraded from Hold to Sell on 11 Nov 2025, signalling a deterioration in the company’s technical and fundamental outlook. The Market Cap Grade stands at 2, indicating a relatively modest market capitalisation compared to peers in the power sector.
This downgrade aligns with the bearish technical signals and recent price weakness, suggesting that investors should exercise caution. The downgrade also reflects concerns about the stock’s ability to sustain upward momentum amid sectoral headwinds and broader market volatility.
Moving Averages and Short-Term Outlook
The daily moving averages for NHPC Ltd are firmly bearish, with the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This technical setup often acts as a resistance zone, limiting upside potential in the near term. The bearish crossover of these averages further confirms the negative momentum.
Given the current technical landscape, short-term traders may find limited opportunities for bullish trades unless the stock manages to reclaim key moving average levels with strong volume support. Conversely, the bearish trend may attract short sellers or investors looking to reduce exposure.
Sectoral Context and Broader Market Factors
NHPC Ltd operates within the power sector, which has faced mixed fortunes amid fluctuating energy demand and regulatory changes. While the company’s long-term fundamentals remain supported by its hydroelectric assets, near-term price action is vulnerable to technical pressures and market sentiment shifts.
Investors should also consider the broader market environment, as the Sensex has shown moderate volatility recently. NHPC Ltd’s relative outperformance over longer periods suggests resilience, but the current technical signals warrant a cautious approach.
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Investor Takeaway
In summary, NHPC Ltd’s technical indicators collectively point to a bearish momentum shift, with key signals such as moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and volume indicators confirming downside risks. The mixed MACD readings and neutral RSI suggest some short-term consolidation, but the overall trend remains negative.
Investors should weigh these technical factors alongside the company’s long-term fundamentals and sector outlook. While NHPC Ltd has demonstrated strong returns over multi-year horizons, the current technical environment advises caution, particularly for short-term traders and those with lower risk tolerance.
Monitoring key support levels near ₹71.01 and watching for any reversal signals in momentum indicators will be crucial in the coming weeks. Until then, the downgrade to a Sell grade and the prevailing bearish technical setup suggest that NHPC Ltd may face continued pressure.
Conclusion
NHPC Ltd’s recent technical deterioration highlights the importance of integrating multiple indicators to assess stock momentum comprehensively. The bearish trend across daily moving averages, monthly Bollinger Bands, and volume metrics signals a cautious stance for investors. While the stock’s long-term performance remains impressive relative to the Sensex, the near-term outlook is clouded by technical weakness and a downgrade in analyst sentiment.
Investors should remain vigilant and consider alternative opportunities within the power sector or broader market, especially given the availability of peer comparisons and superior options identified through analytical tools.
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