NMDC Ltd Gains 0.76%: 3 Key Factors Driving the Week’s Market Moves

16 February: Downgrade and Technical Momentum Shift Trigger Volatility

On Monday, 16 February 2026, NMDC Ltd experienced a significant technical and rating update that set the tone for the week. MarketsMOJO downgraded the stock’s investment rating from 'Strong Buy' to 'Buy', reflecting a recalibration of technical indicators despite the company’s robust fundamentals. The Mojo Score settled at 75.0, signalling a positive but more cautious outlook.

The stock closed at Rs.79.45, down 6.23% from the previous close of Rs.84.73, marking the week’s lowest closing price. This decline coincided with a shift in technical momentum from strongly bullish to mildly bullish, as evidenced by mixed signals from key indicators such as the MACD, RSI, and KST oscillators. While weekly MACD remained bullish, monthly RSI turned bearish, indicating potential medium-term caution.

This price action occurred amid broader market volatility, with the Sensex gaining 0.70% that day to close at 36,787.89. The divergence between NMDC’s price decline and Sensex’s rise highlighted sector-specific pressures and investor reassessment of near-term momentum.

17-18 February: Recovery Attempts Amid Mixed Volume and Price Action

Following the sharp drop on 16 February, NMDC’s stock price attempted to regain ground. On 17 February, the price fell further by 1.63% to Rs.79.16, despite the Sensex advancing 0.32%. This indicated continued investor caution and profit-taking after the downgrade and technical shift.

On 18 February, the stock rebounded by 1.15% to Rs.80.07, supported by a moderate volume of 1,019,429 shares. The Sensex also gained 0.43%, closing at 37,062.35. This recovery suggested that buyers were stepping in near the Rs.79 support level, encouraged by NMDC’s strong fundamentals and dividend yield of 7.3%.

However, delivery volumes declined sharply by 53.31% compared to the five-day average, signalling reduced long-term holding interest despite the price bounce. This divergence between derivatives activity and actual stock holding hinted at a cautious market stance.

19 February: Surge in Open Interest Amid Slight Price Decline

On 19 February, NMDC’s derivatives market saw a pronounced surge in open interest, rising 23.2% to 99,573 contracts from 80,820 the previous day. This sharp increase in open interest, alongside a futures volume of 55,414 contracts and a combined derivatives value exceeding ₹2,23,825 lakhs, indicated heightened speculative activity and repositioning by traders.

Despite this, the stock price dipped marginally by 0.11% to Rs.79.20, outperforming the Minerals & Mining sector’s 0.40% decline and the Sensex’s 1.12% fall. The stock remained above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, signalling a longer-term bullish trend, though short-term averages suggested consolidation.

This mixed price and volume behaviour reflected evolving market sentiment, with investors balancing the company’s solid fundamentals against technical caution and broader market volatility.

20 February: Week Ends on a Positive Note

NMDC closed the week on a positive note, gaining 1.07% to Rs.80.05 on 20 February, outperforming the Sensex’s 0.41% rise. This recovery capped a week of mixed price action and technical recalibration, with the stock demonstrating resilience amid sectoral and market pressures.

The closing price was near the week’s high of Rs.80.47, signalling renewed investor confidence possibly driven by the company’s strong dividend yield, solid quarterly sales of ₹7,610.79 crores, and dominant sector position. The stock’s long-term returns remain compelling, with three- and five-year cumulative gains of 103.26% and 114.10% respectively, far outpacing the Sensex.

Key Takeaways

Positive Signals: NMDC’s strong fundamentals remain intact, with a robust quarterly sales figure of ₹7,610.79 crores and a high dividend yield of 7.3%. The stock’s long-term performance continues to outpace the Sensex significantly, with cumulative returns exceeding 100% over three and five years. The surge in derivatives open interest on 19 February indicates active market participation and potential positioning for future moves.

Cautionary Signals: The downgrade from Strong Buy to Buy and the shift to mildly bullish technical momentum reflect a more cautious near-term outlook. Mixed technical indicators, including bearish monthly RSI and no clear Dow Theory trend, suggest potential consolidation or volatility ahead. Reduced delivery volumes imply waning long-term holding interest despite derivatives activity.

Conclusion

NMDC Ltd’s week was characterised by a nuanced balance between strong fundamental underpinnings and evolving technical signals. While the stock outperformed the Sensex with a 0.76% gain, the downgrade in rating and mixed momentum indicators counsel prudence. The sharp rise in open interest highlights active market engagement, suggesting that investors and traders are recalibrating positions amid sectoral and market uncertainties.

For investors, NMDC’s solid dividend yield, dominant sector position, and impressive long-term returns provide a compelling foundation. However, the current mildly bullish technical environment and recent price volatility warrant close monitoring of momentum indicators and volume trends before making further commitments.

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