NMDC Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Market Volatility

Price Movement and Market Context

On 16 Feb 2026, NMDC Ltd’s stock closed at ₹79.45, down 6.23% from the previous close of ₹84.73. The intraday range was relatively narrow, with a low of ₹79.15 and a high of ₹81.85. This decline contrasts with the broader market, where the Sensex showed a more modest pullback of 1.14% over the past week. Over the last month, NMDC’s stock has fallen 3.26%, compared to a 1.20% decline in the Sensex, signalling a sharper correction in the company’s shares.

Despite recent weakness, NMDC’s longer-term returns remain robust. The stock has delivered a 25.71% gain over the past year, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 8.52% rise. Over three and five years, NMDC’s returns stand at 103.26% and 114.10% respectively, nearly doubling the benchmark’s performance. This strong historical outperformance underpins the stock’s current technical interest.

Technical Trend Shift: From Bullish to Mildly Bullish

The technical trend for NMDC has shifted from a clear bullish stance to a mildly bullish one, reflecting a tempering of upward momentum. This change is corroborated by several indicators across different timeframes.

The Moving Averages on the daily chart remain mildly bullish, suggesting that short-term price action still favours buyers, albeit with reduced conviction. The stock price is trading below its previous close but remains above key moving averages, indicating potential support zones near current levels.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bullish on both weekly and monthly charts, signalling that the underlying momentum is still positive. The weekly MACD line continues to stay above its signal line, which typically indicates sustained buying pressure. Similarly, the monthly MACD supports a bullish outlook, suggesting that the medium-term trend remains intact despite recent price softness.

However, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator presents a mixed view. While weekly KST remains bullish, the monthly KST has turned mildly bearish, hinting at some weakening momentum over the longer term. This divergence between weekly and monthly momentum indicators suggests that while short-term buyers remain active, caution is warranted for longer-term investors.

RSI and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers a contrasting signal. On the weekly timeframe, the RSI is neutral, providing no clear buy or sell signal. Conversely, the monthly RSI has turned bearish, indicating that the stock may be entering an overbought or weakening phase on a longer horizon. This bearish RSI reading aligns with the monthly KST’s mildly bearish stance, reinforcing the need for investors to monitor momentum closely.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands on both weekly and monthly charts are mildly bullish, suggesting that volatility remains contained and the stock is trading within a relatively stable range. The bands have not expanded significantly, which often precedes sharp price moves, indicating that the current correction may be a consolidation rather than the start of a downtrend.

Volume and On-Balance Volume (OBV)

Volume analysis through the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator remains bullish on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This suggests that despite the recent price decline, buying interest has not dissipated significantly. The sustained positive OBV trend supports the view that institutional investors may still be accumulating shares, providing a foundation for potential price recovery.

Dow Theory and Trend Confirmation

According to Dow Theory, NMDC currently shows no definitive trend on either weekly or monthly charts. This absence of a clear trend confirmation suggests that the stock is in a phase of indecision, with neither bulls nor bears firmly in control. Investors should be cautious and look for additional confirmation signals before making significant portfolio adjustments.

Market Capitalisation and Mojo Ratings

NMDC holds a Market Cap Grade of 2, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to its peers in the Minerals & Mining sector. The company’s Mojo Score stands at 75.0, reflecting a solid technical and fundamental outlook. However, the Mojo Grade has been downgraded from a Strong Buy to a Buy as of 13 Feb 2026, signalling a slight moderation in confidence due to recent price action and mixed technical signals.

Investment Implications and Outlook

For investors, NMDC’s current technical profile suggests a cautious but constructive stance. The mildly bullish trend and positive MACD and OBV indicators support the potential for a rebound or consolidation near current price levels. However, bearish signals from the monthly RSI and KST, combined with the absence of a clear Dow Theory trend, advise prudence.

Given the stock’s strong long-term returns and relative outperformance versus the Sensex, NMDC remains an attractive candidate for investors with a medium to long-term horizon. Short-term traders should monitor key support levels around ₹78-79 and watch for confirmation of renewed momentum before initiating fresh positions.

Comparative Performance and Sector Context

Within the Minerals & Mining sector, NMDC’s technical and fundamental metrics remain competitive. The company’s Mojo Grade of Buy, despite the recent downgrade, still places it favourably among peers. The sector has experienced volatility due to fluctuating commodity prices and global demand uncertainties, which have impacted mining stocks broadly.

NMDC’s ability to maintain bullish MACD and OBV readings amidst sector headwinds highlights its relative strength. Investors should consider this resilience when evaluating portfolio allocations in the mining space, balancing the stock’s growth potential against near-term technical caution.

Summary

In summary, NMDC Ltd’s technical momentum has softened from bullish to mildly bullish, reflecting a period of consolidation and mixed signals. Key indicators such as MACD and OBV remain supportive, while RSI and KST suggest caution on longer timeframes. The stock’s recent price correction contrasts with its strong historical returns and relative outperformance versus the Sensex.

Investors are advised to monitor technical developments closely, particularly support levels and momentum indicators, before committing to new positions. The current environment favours a balanced approach, recognising both the stock’s underlying strength and the risks posed by recent volatility.

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