NMDC Ltd Gains 2.19%: 5 Key Factors Driving the Week’s Momentum

23 February 2026: Market Opens on a Cautious Note

NMDC Ltd began the week at Rs.78.99, down 1.32% from the previous close, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid broader market volatility. The Sensex, however, gained 0.39% to close at 36,817.86, indicating a divergence between the stock and the benchmark. Trading volume stood at 1.21 million shares, signalling moderate participation. This initial dip set the stage for a recovery driven by valuation reassessments and technical factors later in the week.

24 February 2026: Valuation Shifts Signal Renewed Attractiveness

On 24 February, NMDC’s stock rebounded sharply, gaining 2.20% to close at Rs.80.73, outperforming the Sensex which declined 0.78%. This rally coincided with a detailed valuation update highlighting improved price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book value (P/BV) ratios. The P/E ratio contracted to 10.04, and the P/BV ratio adjusted to 2.14, both indicating enhanced valuation appeal relative to historical averages and sector peers.

Further, NMDC’s enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 7.20 and PEG ratio of 1.61 underscored a balanced valuation considering growth prospects. The company’s dividend yield of 7.36% added to its attractiveness amid a low-interest-rate environment. These factors contributed to renewed investor interest and a positive price movement supported by a volume increase to 1.69 million shares.

25 February 2026: Continued Gains Amid Market Recovery

NMDC extended its gains on 25 February, closing at Rs.81.87, up 1.41%, while the Sensex rose 0.41%. The stock’s volume remained steady at 1.21 million shares. This upward momentum reflected sustained investor confidence following the valuation update, with the stock trading comfortably above key moving averages. The steady price appreciation over consecutive sessions indicated a strengthening technical trend.

26 February 2026: Exceptional Volume Surge and Call Option Activity

On 26 February, NMDC emerged as one of the most actively traded stocks by volume, with 2.57 million shares changing hands, representing a significant increase over recent averages. The stock closed at Rs.82.59, up 0.88%, outperforming the Minerals & Mining sector’s 0.45% gain and the Sensex’s 0.19% rise. The traded value reached approximately Rs.97.11 crore, underscoring strong market participation.

Investor interest was further highlighted by a surge in call option activity, with 2,098 contracts traded at the Rs.85 strike price expiring on 30 March 2026. This volume translated into a turnover of Rs.3.21 crore, signalling bullish sentiment and expectations of a breakout above recent highs. Delivery volumes on 25 February rose 34.41% above the five-day average, indicating genuine accumulation rather than speculative trading.

Technically, NMDC traded above all key moving averages, reinforcing a bullish trend. The stock was just 4.39% below its 52-week high of Rs.86.72, suggesting proximity to a critical resistance level. This combination of volume, price action, and options market activity pointed to strong momentum and investor confidence.

27 February 2026: Upgrade to Strong Buy on Robust Fundamentals and Technical Momentum

NMDC’s rating was upgraded to Strong Buy by MarketsMOJO on 26 February, reflecting improvements across quality, valuation, financial trends, and technical indicators. The company’s return on equity (ROE) averaged 25.81%, with a return on capital employed (ROCE) of 32.99%, underscoring operational efficiency. The stock traded at a P/E of 10.52 and a dividend yield of 7.02%, supporting a fair valuation despite a premium relative to peers.

Technical momentum shifted from mildly bullish to bullish, supported by positive daily moving averages and bullish Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts. Although some oscillators like the weekly MACD remained mildly bearish, the overall trend was constructive. NMDC closed at Rs.81.80, down 0.96% on the day, but maintained strong relative performance versus the Sensex, which fell 1.16%.

The upgrade reflected confidence in NMDC’s sustained growth, strong institutional ownership of 27.54%, and market leadership within the minerals and mining sector. The stock’s market capitalisation of approximately Rs.72,612 crore positions it as the second-largest company in the sector, accounting for 17.07% of the industry’s market cap.

Daily Price Performance vs Sensex

Key Takeaways

Positive Signals: NMDC’s 2.19% weekly gain outpaced the Sensex’s 0.96% decline, reflecting relative strength amid market volatility. The stock’s valuation metrics improved significantly, with P/E and P/BV ratios moving into attractive territory, supported by a high dividend yield exceeding 7%. Exceptional volume surges and rising delivery volumes indicated strong accumulation by investors. The upgrade to Strong Buy by MarketsMOJO, backed by robust fundamentals and bullish technical momentum, further validates the stock’s appeal.

Cautionary Notes: Despite the overall positive momentum, some technical indicators such as the weekly MACD and monthly RSI suggest potential short-term consolidation or profit-taking phases. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high may present resistance, and investors should monitor commodity price volatility and regulatory developments that could impact the minerals and mining sector. The slight downgrade in Mojo Grade earlier in the week to Buy before the final upgrade signals the need for measured optimism.

Conclusion

NMDC Ltd demonstrated a resilient and constructive week, supported by improved valuation metrics, strong volume and options market activity, and an upgrade to a Strong Buy rating. The stock’s outperformance relative to the Sensex and sector peers highlights its leadership position within the minerals and mining industry. While some technical oscillators advise caution in the short term, the overall fundamental and technical backdrop remains positive. Investors should continue to monitor price action near key resistance levels and sectoral developments to gauge the sustainability of this momentum.

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