Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
On 29 Dec 2025, NMDC Ltd recorded an open interest (OI) of 97,357 contracts, up from 86,099 the previous session, marking an increase of 11,258 contracts or 13.08%. This rise in OI is accompanied by a volume of 55,639 contracts, indicating strong participation in the derivatives market. The futures value stood at ₹1,37,843.97 lakhs, while the options value was substantially higher at ₹17,647,741.42 lakhs, culminating in a total derivatives value of approximately ₹1,40,196.70 lakhs. The underlying stock price was ₹81 at the time.
This surge in open interest, combined with elevated volumes, typically reflects fresh capital entering the market or existing participants increasing their exposure. It often precedes significant price movements, as traders position themselves for anticipated directional shifts.
Price Performance and Moving Averages
Despite the open interest surge, NMDC’s stock price declined by 1.37% on the day, underperforming its sector by 0.91% and the Sensex by 1.05%. However, the stock remains technically strong, trading above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, signalling an overall bullish trend in the medium to long term. Notably, NMDC hit a new 52-week high of ₹84.15 earlier in the session, underscoring underlying strength despite the intraday pullback.
Investor Participation and Liquidity Considerations
Investor participation appears to be waning slightly, with delivery volume on 26 Dec falling by 18.89% to 1.14 crore shares compared to the five-day average. This decline in delivery volume suggests some hesitation among long-term holders or profit-booking activity. Nevertheless, liquidity remains adequate for sizeable trades, with the stock’s average traded value supporting trade sizes up to ₹5.53 crore comfortably.
Dividend Yield and Market Capitalisation
NMDC offers a healthy dividend yield of 3.99% at the current price, which may attract income-focused investors amid volatile market conditions. The company’s market capitalisation stands at ₹71,662.10 crore, categorising it as a mid-cap stock within the Minerals & Mining sector.
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Market Positioning and Directional Bets
The sharp increase in open interest suggests that traders are actively repositioning in NMDC derivatives. Given the stock’s recent new 52-week high and its trading above key moving averages, the market appears to be weighing bullish scenarios. However, the slight price decline and reduced delivery volumes indicate some caution among investors, possibly reflecting profit-taking or hedging activity.
Options data, with a notably high options value, points to significant activity in calls and puts, which may be used for directional bets or volatility plays. The elevated futures value also confirms strong interest in outright directional exposure. This mixed picture suggests that while the broader trend remains positive, market participants are hedging against near-term uncertainties.
Mojo Score Upgrade and Analyst Ratings
Reflecting these developments, NMDC’s Mojo Score has improved to 77.0, earning a Buy grade as of 1 Dec 2025, upgraded from a previous Hold rating. This upgrade signals increased confidence in the stock’s fundamentals and technical outlook. The company holds a Market Cap Grade of 2, consistent with its mid-cap status, and is recognised for its stable dividend yield and sector leadership in Minerals & Mining.
Sector and Benchmark Comparison
On the day, NMDC’s 1-day return of -1.33% lagged the Minerals & Mining sector’s -0.83% and the Sensex’s -0.32%. This relative underperformance amid rising open interest may indicate that derivatives traders are anticipating a rebound or a volatility event that could alter the stock’s trajectory. Investors should monitor upcoming sector developments and commodity price movements, which heavily influence NMDC’s performance.
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Outlook and Investor Considerations
Investors should view the surge in open interest as a signal of increased market attention and potential volatility in NMDC Ltd. The stock’s technical strength, combined with a solid dividend yield and recent rating upgrade, supports a constructive medium-term outlook. However, the recent price underperformance and declining delivery volumes warrant caution, suggesting that short-term price swings may persist.
Market participants are advised to closely monitor derivatives activity, especially changes in put-call ratios and futures positioning, to gauge evolving sentiment. Given the stock’s liquidity and active derivatives market, NMDC remains a viable candidate for both directional trades and hedging strategies within the Minerals & Mining sector.
Summary
In summary, NMDC Ltd’s derivatives market is experiencing a significant uptick in open interest and volume, reflecting heightened investor engagement and repositioning. While the stock faces short-term headwinds, its technical indicators and fundamental upgrades provide a positive backdrop. This dynamic environment offers opportunities for informed investors to capitalise on potential directional moves while managing risk prudently.
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