NMDC Steel Ltd Faces Technical Momentum Shift Amid Bearish Signals

Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement

NMDC Steel Ltd, a player in the ferrous metals sector, currently trades at ₹38.95, down 2.14% from the previous close of ₹39.80. The stock’s intraday range has fluctuated between ₹38.79 and ₹40.19, reflecting heightened volatility. Over the past week, the stock has underperformed the broader market, declining 5.62% compared to the Sensex’s 1.41% fall. This underperformance extends to the monthly and year-to-date periods, with NMDC Steel down 5.83% and 12.0% respectively, while the Sensex has only dipped 0.90% and 3.19% over the same intervals.

The 52-week price range of ₹28.35 to ₹49.62 highlights the stock’s significant volatility, with the current price closer to the lower end of this spectrum. This positioning suggests that the stock is under pressure, despite some technical signals indicating potential short-term support.

MACD and Momentum Indicators Signal Bearishness

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a key momentum oscillator, presents a bearish outlook on the weekly chart and a mildly bearish stance on the monthly chart. This suggests that the stock’s momentum is weakening over both intermediate and longer-term horizons. The bearish weekly MACD indicates that recent price declines may continue, while the mildly bearish monthly MACD hints at a cautious medium-term outlook.

Complementing this, the Dow Theory assessment aligns with the MACD, showing a mildly bearish trend on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This theory, which analyses market trends through price action and volume, reinforces the notion that NMDC Steel is currently in a phase of technical weakness.

RSI and Bollinger Bands: Mixed Signals

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator measuring overbought or oversold conditions, currently shows no definitive signal on either weekly or monthly charts. This neutrality suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further directional movement based on other technical factors.

Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and price levels relative to moving averages, indicate a sideways trend on the weekly chart but a bearish pattern on the monthly chart. The monthly bearish Bollinger Bands suggest increasing downward pressure and potential for further price declines in the medium term.

Moving Averages and KST Offer Contrasting Views

Daily moving averages provide a mildly bullish signal, indicating some short-term support for the stock price. This suggests that despite broader bearish momentum, there may be temporary buying interest or consolidation near current levels.

Meanwhile, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which is designed to capture major price cycles, shows a bullish signal on the weekly chart but lacks a clear monthly direction. This divergence between short-term bullishness and longer-term uncertainty highlights the complex technical landscape NMDC Steel currently faces.

Volume Trends and Market Capitalisation Insights

On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis reveals a mildly bearish trend on the weekly chart, indicating that volume is not strongly supporting recent price gains. However, the monthly OBV is bullish, suggesting that longer-term accumulation may be occurring despite short-term selling pressure.

NMDC Steel’s market capitalisation grade stands at 3, reflecting a mid-tier valuation within its sector. This, combined with a Mojo Score of 29.0 and a recent downgrade from Sell to Strong Sell on 15 Feb 2026, signals deteriorating investor sentiment and technical quality.

Comparative Performance and Sector Context

When benchmarked against the Sensex, NMDC Steel’s returns have lagged significantly in the short term. The stock’s 1-year return of 8.19% slightly trails the Sensex’s 8.64%, while longer-term data is unavailable for direct comparison. The ferrous metals sector, known for cyclical volatility, has seen mixed performance, with NMDC Steel’s technical deterioration suggesting it is currently underperforming peers.

Investors should note that the stock’s recent technical downgrade to Strong Sell by MarketsMOJO reflects a comprehensive assessment of price momentum, volume trends, and relative strength. This downgrade was enacted on 15 Feb 2026, signalling a marked shift in the stock’s risk profile.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

Given the mildly bearish technical trend, investors should approach NMDC Steel with caution. The mixed signals from daily moving averages and weekly KST suggest potential short-term support, but the broader weekly and monthly indicators point to continued downside risk. The absence of a clear RSI signal further emphasises the need for close monitoring of price action and volume.

For those holding the stock, it may be prudent to consider risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders or partial profit-taking, especially given the stock’s underperformance relative to the broader market. Prospective investors might wait for clearer technical confirmation of a trend reversal before initiating new positions.

Summary

NMDC Steel Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes reveal a shift towards a mildly bearish momentum, underscored by bearish MACD and Dow Theory signals on weekly and monthly charts. While daily moving averages and weekly KST offer some short-term bullish hints, the overall technical landscape remains cautious. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex and its downgrade to a Strong Sell rating by MarketsMOJO further reinforce the need for prudence among investors.

As the ferrous metals sector continues to navigate cyclical pressures, NMDC Steel’s technical indicators suggest that investors should carefully weigh risks and consider alternative opportunities within the sector or broader market.

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