Technical Trend Shift and Price Movement
On 10 Feb 2026, NMDC Steel Ltd closed at ₹42.14, marking a 1.74% increase from the previous close of ₹41.42. The stock traded within a range of ₹41.13 to ₹42.72 during the day, reflecting moderate volatility. Over the past week, the stock has slightly declined by 0.5%, underperforming the Sensex which gained 2.94% in the same period. However, over the last month, NMDC Steel outpaced the benchmark with a 0.93% return compared to Sensex’s 0.59% rise.
Year-to-date, the stock has declined by 4.79%, lagging behind the Sensex’s 1.36% fall, while the one-year return stands at 4.51%, below the Sensex’s 7.97%. These figures indicate a stock that is struggling to keep pace with broader market gains but showing signs of stabilisation.
MACD and RSI: Divergent Signals
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mildly bearish outlook on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This suggests that the momentum behind recent gains may be weakening, signalling potential resistance ahead. Conversely, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly and monthly charts remains neutral, offering no clear overbought or oversold conditions. This lack of a definitive RSI signal implies that the stock is currently in a consolidation phase without extreme momentum in either direction.
Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages: Contrasting Views
Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart indicate a sideways movement, reflecting limited price volatility and a lack of strong directional bias. On the monthly scale, however, the bands suggest a bearish trend, hinting at possible downward pressure over a longer horizon.
In contrast, daily moving averages have turned bullish, signalling short-term upward momentum. This divergence between short-term and longer-term indicators highlights the stock’s current technical complexity, where immediate price action is positive but longer-term trends remain uncertain.
KST and Dow Theory: Mixed Momentum
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator shows a bullish signal on the weekly timeframe, reinforcing the recent mild upward momentum. However, monthly KST readings are inconclusive, and Dow Theory analysis finds no clear trend on either weekly or monthly charts. This suggests that while short-term momentum is improving, the stock has yet to establish a definitive directional trend in the medium to long term.
On-Balance Volume and Market Capitalisation
On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis reveals no significant trend on the weekly chart but shows bullish momentum on the monthly scale. This indicates that buying pressure may be building gradually, supporting the mild bullish technical stance. Despite this, NMDC Steel’s market capitalisation grade remains low at 3, reflecting its relatively modest size within the ferrous metals sector.
Mojo Score and Rating Update
MarketsMOJO assigns NMDC Steel a Mojo Score of 39.0, categorising it as a Sell with a recent downgrade from Strong Sell on 9 Feb 2026. This rating adjustment reflects the slight improvement in technical parameters but also acknowledges ongoing fundamental and market challenges. The stock’s position within the ferrous metals industry and sector remains under pressure amid fluctuating commodity prices and global demand uncertainties.
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Comparative Performance and Sector Context
NMDC Steel’s performance relative to the Sensex and its ferrous metals peers reveals a mixed picture. While the stock has shown resilience with a 4.51% return over the past year, it trails the Sensex’s 7.97% gain and significantly underperforms the broader market over longer periods, with the Sensex delivering 38.25% and 63.78% returns over three and five years respectively.
The 52-week high of ₹49.62 and low of ₹28.35 illustrate a wide trading range, with the current price of ₹42.14 positioned closer to the upper end, suggesting some recovery from lows but still below peak levels. This price action reflects the cyclical nature of the ferrous metals industry, which is sensitive to global steel demand, raw material costs, and macroeconomic factors.
Outlook and Investor Considerations
Given the mildly bullish daily moving averages and weekly KST, short-term traders may find opportunities in NMDC Steel’s current momentum. However, the mildly bearish MACD and monthly Bollinger Bands counsel caution, indicating that the stock could face resistance or consolidation in the medium term.
Investors should weigh these technical signals alongside fundamental factors such as commodity price trends, company earnings, and sector dynamics. The current Mojo Grade of Sell suggests that while some technical improvement is evident, the stock is not yet positioned for a strong buy recommendation.
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Summary of Technical Indicators
To summarise, NMDC Steel Ltd’s technical indicators present a nuanced picture:
- MACD: Mildly bearish on weekly and monthly charts, signalling potential momentum weakening.
- RSI: Neutral on weekly and monthly, indicating no extreme conditions.
- Bollinger Bands: Sideways on weekly, bearish on monthly, reflecting mixed volatility trends.
- Moving Averages: Bullish on daily, supporting short-term upward momentum.
- KST: Bullish weekly, inconclusive monthly, suggesting improving short-term momentum.
- Dow Theory: No clear trend on weekly or monthly, indicating uncertainty in broader trend direction.
- OBV: No trend weekly, bullish monthly, hinting at gradual accumulation.
These mixed signals imply that while there is some positive momentum building, investors should remain vigilant and consider broader market and sector conditions before committing.
Final Thoughts
NMDC Steel Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes reflect a stock in transition. The shift from sideways to mildly bullish momentum, supported by daily moving averages and weekly KST, offers cautious optimism. Yet, the presence of bearish MACD and monthly Bollinger Bands signals that challenges remain. Investors should monitor upcoming price action closely, especially in relation to key support and resistance levels, and consider the stock’s relative underperformance against the Sensex over longer periods.
With a Mojo Score of 39.0 and a Sell rating, NMDC Steel currently sits in a watchful position rather than a clear buy. Those seeking exposure to the ferrous metals sector may want to explore alternative stocks with stronger technical and fundamental profiles.
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