NMDC Steel Ltd Falls 5.17%: Technical Shift and Downgrade Drive Weekly Decline

Monday, 19 January 2026: Downgrade to Strong Sell Signals Heightened Caution

NMDC Steel Ltd opened the week at Rs.41.74 but closed lower at Rs.41.36, down 0.91% on the day, as MarketsMOJO downgraded the stock from Sell to Strong Sell. This rating change was driven by deteriorating technical indicators and weak long-term fundamentals despite some recent positive quarterly results. The company’s Mojo Score dropped to 29.0, signalling increased risk for investors.

The downgrade reflected a shift in technical outlook from mildly bullish to sideways, with key momentum indicators such as MACD turning mildly bearish on weekly and monthly charts. Valuation concerns were also highlighted, with the stock trading at risky levels relative to historical averages and underperforming the broader BSE500 index over the past year. The company’s profitability metrics showed a 52% year-on-year decline in net profits, and operating profit had contracted at an annualised rate of -37.79% over five years.

Tuesday, 20 January 2026: Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Signals

The stock continued its downward trajectory, closing at Rs.39.90, a sharp 3.53% decline on heavy volume of 407,760 shares. This drop coincided with further confirmation of a technical momentum shift from mildly bullish to sideways. While daily moving averages and the weekly Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator showed some mild bullishness, broader weekly and monthly indicators such as MACD and Bollinger Bands suggested bearish tendencies.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained neutral, indicating indecision among traders. On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis showed bullish tendencies on monthly charts but no clear weekly trend, underscoring the mixed technical picture. The stock’s intraday range remained narrow, reflecting subdued volatility amid uncertainty.

Wednesday, 21 January 2026: Continued Decline Amid Persistent Weakness

NMDC Steel Ltd’s stock price edged down further to Rs.39.57, a 0.83% decline on increased volume of 553,714 shares. The stock remained below its week’s opening price and continued to underperform the Sensex, which also declined but at a lesser rate. The sideways technical trend persisted, with no clear directional momentum emerging. Investors remained cautious amid the ongoing fundamental challenges and mixed technical signals.

Thursday, 22 January 2026: Brief Rebound on Positive Market Sentiment

The stock saw a modest recovery, closing at Rs.40.48, up 2.30% on the day, supported by a 0.76% rise in the Sensex. This uptick was driven by short-term buying interest and some mild bullish signals from daily moving averages and the weekly KST indicator. However, the broader technical outlook remained sideways, with monthly indicators still bearish. Volume declined to 159,375 shares, reflecting cautious participation.

Friday, 23 January 2026: Week Ends with a Sharp Decline

NMDC Steel Ltd closed the week at Rs.39.58, down 2.22% on the day, as the Sensex fell 1.33%. The stock’s weekly decline of 5.17% outpaced the Sensex’s 3.31% fall, underscoring its relative weakness. The technical momentum remained sideways with bearish undertones, and the MarketsMOJO Strong Sell rating continued to weigh on sentiment. Trading volume rose to 267,943 shares, indicating renewed selling pressure as the week concluded.

Key Takeaways

Negative Rating and Technical Shift: The downgrade to Strong Sell by MarketsMOJO on 19 January 2026 was a pivotal event, reflecting deteriorating fundamentals and a shift in technical momentum from mildly bullish to sideways. This change signalled increased risk and uncertainty for investors.

Underperformance vs Sensex: NMDC Steel’s 5.17% weekly decline outpaced the Sensex’s 3.31% fall, highlighting relative weakness amid broader market volatility. The stock’s persistent underperformance over the past year and year-to-date period underscores structural challenges.

Mixed Technical Indicators: While some daily and weekly indicators showed mild bullishness, key momentum oscillators such as MACD and Bollinger Bands on monthly charts indicated bearish pressure. The sideways trend suggests consolidation with no clear directional bias.

Fundamental Concerns: Despite recent positive quarterly sales growth, long-term financial trends remain weak, with declining profitability, negative EBITDA, and high leverage. These factors contribute to the cautious outlook and rating downgrade.

Volume and Volatility: Trading volumes fluctuated during the week, with heavy activity on down days signalling selling pressure. Price volatility remained subdued, reflecting investor indecision amid mixed signals.

Conclusion

NMDC Steel Ltd’s performance during the week ending 23 January 2026 was characterised by a notable downgrade to Strong Sell and a shift in technical momentum that together weighed heavily on the stock price. The 5.17% weekly decline, exceeding the Sensex’s fall, reflects investor caution amid deteriorating fundamentals and mixed technical signals. While short-term rebounds occurred, the broader outlook remains subdued due to persistent profitability challenges and valuation concerns.

Investors should remain attentive to upcoming financial results and technical developments, as the stock navigates a consolidation phase with uncertain directional momentum. The current environment suggests a cautious stance, with the potential for further downside if key support levels are breached.

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