NMDC Steel Ltd Sees Mild Bullish Momentum Amid Mixed Technical Signals

Technical Momentum and Price Action

NMDC Steel Ltd’s current market price stands at ₹42.83, up from the previous close of ₹41.55, marking a notable intraday gain of 3.08%. The stock traded within a range of ₹41.55 to ₹43.00 today, inching closer to its 52-week high of ₹49.62, while comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹28.35. This price movement reflects a positive short-term momentum, with the stock outperforming the broader Sensex, which recorded a modest 0.53% gain over the past week compared to NMDC Steel’s 8.24% return.

Over the one-month horizon, NMDC Steel has delivered a 2.76% return, contrasting with the Sensex’s decline of 3.17%, signalling relative strength in the stock amid broader market weakness. Year-to-date, the stock has marginally underperformed with a -3.23% return, closely tracking the Sensex’s -3.37%. Over the past year, NMDC Steel has outpaced the benchmark with an 11.1% gain versus the Sensex’s 8.49%, highlighting its resilience in a volatile market environment.

Mixed Technical Indicator Signals

Examining the technical indicators reveals a nuanced picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating that the momentum may not yet be fully supportive of a sustained uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly and monthly timeframes shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory, which suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold.

Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart indicate a sideways trend, reflecting consolidation, while the monthly Bollinger Bands lean bearish, hinting at potential downward pressure in the longer term. Conversely, daily moving averages have turned bullish, signalling short-term upward momentum. The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is bullish on the weekly timeframe, reinforcing the recent positive price action, although the monthly KST remains inconclusive.

According to Dow Theory, the weekly and monthly trends are mildly bearish, suggesting that despite recent gains, the broader trend may still be under pressure. On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis shows no clear trend on the weekly chart but is bullish on the monthly scale, indicating accumulation by investors over the longer term.

Mojo Score and Market Capitalisation Insights

NMDC Steel Ltd currently holds a Mojo Score of 39.0, categorised as a 'Sell' rating, an improvement from its previous 'Strong Sell' grade as of 28 Jan 2026. This upgrade reflects a slight enhancement in the stock’s technical and fundamental outlook, though it remains below the threshold for a neutral or buy recommendation. The company’s market capitalisation grade is rated at 3, indicating a mid-tier market cap relative to its peers in the ferrous metals sector.

Sector and Industry Context

Operating within the ferrous metals industry, NMDC Steel faces sector-specific headwinds including fluctuating raw material costs and global demand uncertainties. Despite these challenges, the stock’s recent technical trend shift from sideways to mildly bullish suggests that investors are beginning to price in potential recovery or stabilisation in the sector. However, the mixed signals from key momentum indicators warrant a cautious approach.

Comparative Performance and Returns

When benchmarked against the Sensex, NMDC Steel’s returns over various periods present a mixed but generally favourable picture. The stock’s 1-year return of 11.1% surpasses the Sensex’s 8.49%, demonstrating relative outperformance. However, longer-term returns over three, five, and ten years are not available for NMDC Steel, while the Sensex has delivered robust gains of 38.79%, 75.67%, and 236.52% respectively over these periods. This gap underscores the importance of monitoring NMDC Steel’s ability to sustain growth and improve its long-term track record.

Technical Trend Outlook and Investor Considerations

The current mildly bullish technical trend, supported by daily moving averages and weekly KST, suggests that NMDC Steel may be entering a phase of moderate upward momentum. However, the persistent mildly bearish MACD and Dow Theory signals on weekly and monthly charts imply that the stock has yet to confirm a strong bullish breakout. Investors should weigh these conflicting signals carefully, considering both the potential for short-term gains and the risk of longer-term volatility.

Volume-based indicators such as OBV provide some optimism, with monthly bullish trends indicating accumulation, but the absence of a weekly trend tempers enthusiasm. The neutral RSI readings further reinforce the notion that the stock is currently in a consolidation phase, awaiting a decisive catalyst to drive a sustained move.

Conclusion: A Cautious Optimism Prevails

NMDC Steel Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes indicate a tentative shift towards bullishness, primarily driven by daily moving averages and weekly momentum indicators. Nevertheless, the presence of mildly bearish signals on monthly charts and neutral momentum oscillators suggests that the stock remains in a delicate balance between consolidation and potential breakout.

Investors should monitor key technical levels closely, particularly the 52-week high of ₹49.62, which could serve as a resistance point. A sustained move above this level, supported by improving MACD and RSI readings, would strengthen the bullish case. Conversely, failure to maintain current momentum could see the stock retest lower support levels near ₹41 and beyond.

Given the current Mojo Grade of 'Sell' and the mixed technical landscape, a prudent approach would be to consider NMDC Steel as a stock with potential upside tempered by notable risks. Portfolio diversification and comparison with sector peers remain essential strategies for investors seeking exposure to the ferrous metals industry.

Unlock special upgrade rates for a limited period. Start Saving Now →