Key Events This Week
2 Feb: Technical momentum shifts amid mixed indicator signals
3 Feb: Upgrade to Hold as technicals improve
4 Feb: Technical momentum signals mildly bullish outlook
6 Feb: Week closes at Rs.365.10 (+2.61%) outperforming Sensex
2 February: Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Signals
NTPC’s week began with a technical momentum shift from sideways to mildly bearish, reflected in the stock’s 1.52% decline to ₹350.40. The day’s trading range was volatile, with intraday highs of ₹360.95 and lows of ₹337.70, signalling investor caution. Key technical indicators such as the weekly MACD remained bullish, but monthly MACD and daily moving averages suggested emerging bearish pressures. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered neutrally, indicating no clear overbought or oversold conditions. Despite the dip, NTPC’s price remained well above its 52-week low of ₹292.70, maintaining a consolidation phase with a cautious outlook.
3 February: Upgrade to Hold as Technicals Improve
On 3 February, NTPC’s technical outlook improved markedly, prompting MarketsMOJO to upgrade the stock’s rating from 'Sell' to 'Hold'. The share price responded positively, rising 2.33% to close at ₹358.55. This upgrade was driven by bullish weekly MACD and Bollinger Bands, alongside a mildly bullish Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator and Dow Theory indicators. Although monthly MACD remained mildly bearish, the overall technical picture shifted to a more constructive stance. Valuation metrics remained attractive, with a Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) of 8.1% and a PEG ratio of 1.4, reflecting moderate growth expectations. Institutional ownership at 45.56% provided additional stability amid mixed financial trends, including flat recent quarterly results and a high Debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.81 times.
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4 February: Technical Momentum Signals Mildly Bullish Outlook
NTPC continued its upward momentum on 4 February, closing at ₹367.30, a 2.44% gain from the previous day. Technical indicators confirmed a shift to a mildly bullish stance, with weekly MACD and Bollinger Bands turning positive, while monthly MACD remained mildly bearish. The RSI remained neutral, suggesting room for further gains without immediate risk of reversal. Daily moving averages were still mildly bearish, indicating some short-term resistance. Dow Theory assessments and the Know Sure Thing oscillator supported a cautiously optimistic outlook. The stock’s performance outpaced the Sensex, which rose 0.37% that day, reinforcing NTPC’s relative strength within the market.
5 February: Minor Consolidation Amid Market Pullback
On 5 February, NTPC’s price saw a slight decline of 0.11% to ₹366.90, amid a broader market pullback where the Sensex fell 0.53%. This minor consolidation reflected profit-taking and cautious positioning after the prior day’s gains. Technical indicators suggested the stock was maintaining support levels, with no significant deterioration in momentum. Volume decreased compared to earlier in the week, indicating a pause in aggressive trading activity.
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6 February: Week Closes with Slight Decline but Outperformance Maintained
NTPC ended the week at ₹365.10, down 0.49% from the previous close but still registering a 2.61% gain for the week overall. The Sensex closed marginally higher by 0.10% on the day, finishing the week with a 1.51% gain. The stock’s resilience amid minor daily declines underscores its relative strength and the positive technical momentum established earlier in the week. Volume was notably lower, suggesting a cautious stance among traders ahead of the weekend. The mixed signals from daily moving averages and monthly MACD warrant close monitoring in the coming sessions.
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | Rs.350.40 | -1.52% | 35,814.09 | -1.03% |
| 2026-02-03 | Rs.358.55 | +2.33% | 36,755.96 | +2.63% |
| 2026-02-04 | Rs.367.30 | +2.44% | 36,890.21 | +0.37% |
| 2026-02-05 | Rs.366.90 | -0.11% | 36,695.11 | -0.53% |
| 2026-02-06 | Rs.365.10 | -0.49% | 36,730.20 | +0.10% |
Key Takeaways
Positive Signals: NTPC’s weekly MACD and Bollinger Bands turned bullish early in the week, supporting a technical upgrade from 'Sell' to 'Hold'. The stock outperformed the Sensex by 1.10% over the week, demonstrating relative strength. Institutional ownership remains robust at 45.56%, providing stability. Valuation metrics such as ROCE of 8.1% and PEG ratio of 1.4 indicate reasonable pricing relative to growth prospects.
Cautionary Notes: Monthly MACD and daily moving averages remain mildly bearish, signalling potential resistance and the need for confirmation of a sustained uptrend. Financial performance is stabilising but flat, with a high Debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.81 times highlighting leverage risks. Volume declined towards week-end, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Overall, NTPC’s week was characterised by a transition from technical caution to mild optimism, supported by an upgrade in rating and solid relative price performance. Investors should monitor key technical indicators and financial developments closely to assess the sustainability of this momentum.
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