Technical Trend Overview
Recent analysis reveals that NTPC’s technical trend has softened from mildly bullish to sideways, reflecting a period of consolidation after a sustained upward trajectory. The stock closed at ₹361.85 on 10 Feb 2026, down 0.89% from the previous close of ₹365.10. Intraday, it fluctuated between ₹361.15 and ₹368.35, remaining below its 52-week high of ₹371.10 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹292.70.
This sideways movement suggests that while the stock has not entered a bearish phase, momentum is waning, and investors should monitor key technical indicators closely for signs of a breakout or further stagnation.
MACD Signals: Divergent Weekly and Monthly Perspectives
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains bullish, signalling that short-term momentum is still positive. This is indicative of underlying strength in the stock’s price action over recent weeks, potentially driven by sectoral tailwinds or company-specific developments.
Conversely, the monthly MACD has turned mildly bearish, suggesting that the longer-term momentum is weakening. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings often precedes a period of consolidation or correction, as short-term optimism clashes with longer-term caution.
RSI and Bollinger Bands: Neutral to Mildly Bullish Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory. This indicates that NTPC is neither overbought nor oversold, reinforcing the sideways trend narrative.
Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands provide a slightly more optimistic outlook. The weekly Bollinger Bands are mildly bullish, suggesting that price volatility is contained and the stock may be poised for a modest upward move. On the monthly scale, the Bollinger Bands are bullish, which could imply that the stock’s price is supported by a broader positive trend despite short-term fluctuations.
Moving Averages and KST: Mixed Momentum Signals
Daily moving averages have turned mildly bearish, reflecting recent price declines and signalling potential resistance at current levels. This bearish tilt on the daily chart contrasts with the weekly KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator, which remains bullish, indicating that momentum over the medium term is still intact.
However, the monthly KST is mildly bearish, aligning with the monthly MACD’s cautionary stance. This mixed momentum across different timeframes suggests that investors should exercise prudence and consider the broader market context before making directional bets.
Volume and Dow Theory Insights
Volume-based indicators such as On-Balance Volume (OBV) show no clear trend on the weekly chart but are mildly bullish on the monthly chart. This implies that while recent trading volumes have not decisively supported price moves, longer-term accumulation may be occurring.
Dow Theory assessments add further complexity: no clear trend is evident on the weekly scale, but a mildly bullish trend is observed monthly. This reinforces the notion of a stock in transition, balancing between consolidation and potential resumption of upward momentum.
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Comparative Performance and Market Context
Despite the recent technical caution, NTPC’s longer-term returns remain impressive relative to the broader market. Over the past week, the stock outperformed the Sensex with a 3.27% gain versus 2.94%. Over one month, NTPC surged 7.68%, significantly ahead of the Sensex’s 0.59% rise.
Year-to-date returns stand at 9.83%, contrasting with the Sensex’s decline of 1.36%. Over one year, NTPC has delivered 14.20% returns, nearly doubling the Sensex’s 7.97%. The stock’s three-year and five-year returns are particularly notable at 117.98% and 261.85%, respectively, dwarfing the Sensex’s 38.25% and 63.78% gains.
However, over a ten-year horizon, NTPC’s 245.72% return slightly trails the Sensex’s 249.97%, reflecting the broader market’s cyclical strength over the last decade.
Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings
MarketsMOJO assigns NTPC a Mojo Score of 48.0, categorising it as a Sell with a recent downgrade from Hold on 9 Feb 2026. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating limited upside potential relative to market capitalisation metrics.
This downgrade reflects the technical indicators’ mixed signals and the shift to a sideways trend, suggesting that investors should approach NTPC with caution and consider alternative opportunities within the power sector or broader market.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
NTPC Ltd.’s current technical landscape is characterised by a transition from mild bullishness to a sideways consolidation phase. The divergence between short-term bullish signals and longer-term bearish or neutral indicators suggests that the stock is at a critical juncture.
Investors should weigh the stock’s strong historical returns and sectoral positioning against the recent technical caution. The mildly bearish daily moving averages and monthly MACD, coupled with neutral RSI readings, imply limited near-term upside without a clear catalyst.
For those holding NTPC, it may be prudent to monitor key support levels near ₹360 and resistance around ₹370 closely. New investors might consider waiting for confirmation of a trend reversal or clearer momentum signals before initiating positions.
Given the MarketsMOJO downgrade to Sell and the modest Mojo Score, portfolio managers and retail investors alike should evaluate NTPC within the context of their risk tolerance and investment horizon, potentially exploring alternative power sector stocks with stronger technical profiles.
Summary of Technical Indicators
To summarise the key technical signals:
- MACD: Weekly bullish, monthly mildly bearish
- RSI: Neutral on both weekly and monthly charts
- Bollinger Bands: Mildly bullish weekly, bullish monthly
- Moving Averages: Daily mildly bearish
- KST: Weekly bullish, monthly mildly bearish
- Dow Theory: No trend weekly, mildly bullish monthly
- OBV: No trend weekly, mildly bullish monthly
This mixed technical profile underscores the importance of a cautious, data-driven approach to NTPC’s stock in the near term.
Sector and Market Considerations
The power sector continues to face challenges including regulatory pressures, fuel cost volatility, and evolving energy policies favouring renewables. NTPC’s ability to navigate these dynamics while maintaining operational efficiency will be critical to its future price momentum.
Moreover, broader market conditions, including interest rate trends and macroeconomic factors, will influence investor sentiment towards large-cap power stocks like NTPC.
In conclusion, while NTPC Ltd. remains a significant player with strong historical returns, its current technical indicators advise caution. Investors should closely monitor momentum shifts and consider diversification within the sector to optimise portfolio performance.
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