Oberoi Realty Declines 1.55% Amid Bearish Momentum and Rising Derivatives Activity

16 February: Positive Start Amid Broader Market Gains

Oberoi Realty began the week on a positive note, closing at Rs.1,564.30, up 1.10% from the previous close. This outpaced the Sensex’s 0.70% gain, reflecting initial investor optimism. The volume was moderate at 5,802 shares, supporting the upward move. The broader market rally appeared to lift the stock temporarily, but this momentum was not sustained in subsequent sessions.

18 February: Bearish Technical Shift Signals Growing Pressure

By 18 February, Oberoi Realty’s technical outlook deteriorated significantly. The stock closed at Rs.1,543.80, down 0.41%, continuing a downward trend that began the previous day. Technical indicators such as the MACD and Bollinger Bands shifted to bearish stances, with the stock trading closer to its 52-week low of Rs.1,425.75 than its high. The MarketsMOJO rating downgraded the stock to a Sell on 5 January 2026, reflecting this weakening momentum. Despite a bullish weekly RSI suggesting short-term oversold conditions, the overall technical environment was negative, with moving averages trending downward and the Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator confirming bearish momentum.

19 February: Sharp Open Interest Surge Amid Bearish Momentum

The stock experienced a significant decline on 19 February, closing at Rs.1,503.40, down 2.62%. This drop coincided with a 10.7% surge in open interest in the derivatives segment, rising to 31,041 contracts from 28,052 the previous day. The increase in open interest alongside falling prices typically indicates fresh short positions being established, signalling growing bearish sentiment among traders. Futures volume was robust at 19,674 contracts, with a combined futures and options notional value exceeding ₹72,887 lakhs. Delivery volumes surged by 77.83% to 1.99 lakh shares, suggesting increased investor conviction in holding positions amid the downtrend. Oberoi Realty underperformed both the Realty sector, which fell 1.63%, and the Sensex, which declined 1.45% on the day. The stock’s trading below all key moving averages reinforced the negative technical outlook.

20 February: Mixed Technical Signals Amid Continued Derivatives Activity

On the final trading day of the week, Oberoi Realty closed at Rs.1,523.30, recovering 1.32% from the previous close. Despite this modest gain, the stock remained below all major moving averages, indicating that the broader bearish trend persisted. Open interest in derivatives rose again by 10.4% to 30,788 contracts, accompanied by a daily volume of 20,442 contracts. The notional value of futures was approximately ₹63,265 lakhs, while options accounted for ₹4,552 crores, reflecting sustained market interest. Delivery volume increased sharply by 93.48% to 2.68 lakh shares, signalling heightened investor participation. The weekly MACD remained bearish, though the monthly MACD improved to mildly bearish, and the weekly RSI continued to show bullish tendencies, suggesting potential short-term relief. However, the overall technical momentum remained cautious, with the Mojo Score at 42.0 and a Sell rating maintained.

Weekly Price Performance: Oberoi Realty vs Sensex

Key Takeaways

Bearish Technical Momentum: Oberoi Realty’s technical indicators predominantly signalled bearish momentum throughout the week, with the MACD, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and KST oscillator all pointing to weakening price action. The downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO on 5 January 2026 remains in effect, reflecting this negative trend.

Rising Derivatives Activity: The sharp increases in open interest on 19 and 20 February, coupled with rising futures and options volumes, indicate active market repositioning. The pattern of rising open interest amid falling prices suggests that traders are establishing or adding to short positions, signalling growing bearish sentiment.

Mixed Short-Term Signals: Despite the overall bearish trend, the weekly RSI and On-Balance Volume (OBV) showed some bullish signals, hinting at potential short-term oversold conditions and mild accumulation. The stock’s modest recovery on 20 February supports this view, though it remains below key moving averages.

Underperformance vs Sensex: Oberoi Realty declined 1.55% over the week, underperforming the Sensex’s 0.39% gain. This relative weakness underscores the challenges faced by the stock amid sectoral and market pressures.

Investor Participation: Delivery volumes surged significantly on 18 and 19 February, indicating increased conviction among investors holding shares beyond intraday trading. This may reflect repositioning in anticipation of further market developments.

Conclusion

Oberoi Realty Ltd’s week was characterised by a predominantly bearish technical environment and heightened derivatives market activity. The stock’s decline of 1.55% contrasted with the Sensex’s modest gain, highlighting its relative weakness. While some short-term indicators suggest potential relief rallies, the prevailing technical signals and a sustained Sell rating advise caution. The sharp rises in open interest and delivery volumes reflect active market repositioning, with traders increasingly betting on downside risk amid sectoral headwinds and macroeconomic uncertainties. Investors should monitor price action closely alongside derivatives trends to assess whether the stock can stabilise or if further downside pressure will persist in the near term.

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