Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. Edges Lower - 0.09% Weekly Dip Amid Mixed Technical Signals

2 February: Sharp Decline Amid Rising Open Interest and Mixed Technical Signals

ONGC opened the week with a significant decline, closing at Rs.254.00, down 5.56% from the previous Friday’s close of Rs.268.95. This drop was sharper than the Sensex’s 1.03% fall to 35,814.09, signalling stock-specific pressures. The day saw a notable 15.12% surge in open interest in the derivatives segment, rising to 89,325 contracts, indicating active repositioning by traders despite the price dip.

Technical indicators painted a mixed picture. The stock remained above its medium- and long-term moving averages but slipped below the 5-day average, suggesting short-term consolidation. The downgrade of ONGC’s Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold on 19 January 2026 reflected caution amid this volatility. The oil sector’s 2.37% gain contrasted with ONGC’s underperformance, highlighting stock-specific factors influencing sentiment.

3 February: Recovery Supported by Broader Market Rally

ONGC rebounded modestly, gaining 1.22% to close at Rs.257.10, outperforming the Sensex’s 2.63% rally to 36,755.96. The recovery aligned with a broader market bounce, reflecting improved investor confidence. Volume increased to over one million shares, supporting the price rise. This session marked the beginning of a short-term positive momentum shift following the prior day’s sharp decline.

4 February: Intraday High and Strong Outperformance

Building on the recovery, ONGC surged 3.85% to close at Rs.267.00, hitting an intraday high of Rs.263.5. This represented a robust outperformance relative to the oil sector and the Sensex, which gained 0.37% that day. The stock’s weighted average price volatility was elevated at 30.71%, reflecting active trading and sustained buying interest. Technical positioning remained positive with the price above key moving averages, although short-term consolidation below the 5-day average persisted.

Year-to-date, ONGC had gained 10.30%, substantially outperforming the Sensex’s decline of 1.70%. The stock’s attractive dividend yield of 4.86% and mega-cap status continued to underpin investor interest amid a recovering market environment.

5 February: Golden Cross Formation Signals Bullish Breakout

ONGC’s technical landscape shifted notably as the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, forming a Golden Cross—a widely regarded bullish indicator signalling potential long-term momentum. The stock closed at Rs.269.10, up 0.79%, reinforcing the positive technical breakout.

This development coincided with an upgrade in ONGC’s Mojo Score to 74.0 and a return to a Buy rating from Hold, reflecting improved confidence in the stock’s near- to medium-term prospects. Despite some mixed signals from momentum oscillators such as RSI and KST, the Golden Cross suggested a trend reversal from prior consolidation phases.

6 February: Technical Momentum Shifts to Mildly Bullish Amid Mixed Signals

On the final trading day of the week, ONGC’s price held steady at Rs.268.70, down marginally by 0.15%. Technical momentum shifted from mildly bearish to mildly bullish, supported by a bullish weekly MACD and positive Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts. Daily moving averages also indicated short-term strength with the stock trading above key averages.

However, some indicators such as the weekly RSI and KST remained bearish, and volume-based measures like On-Balance Volume (OBV) showed no clear trend, reflecting ongoing uncertainty. The MarketsMOJO upgrade to a Buy rating on 5 February 2026 underscored improved fundamentals and technicals, with the company’s strong operational performance and valuation appeal cited as key factors.

Key Takeaways

Positive Signals: The formation of the Golden Cross on 5 February marked a significant technical milestone, signalling a potential long-term bullish breakout. The upgrade to a Buy rating by MarketsMOJO, supported by improved technical indicators and strong financial trends, adds to the positive outlook. ONGC’s attractive dividend yield near 4.6% and mega-cap status underpin its appeal amid sector recovery.

Cautionary Notes: The week began with a sharp 5.56% decline amid mixed technical signals and rising open interest, reflecting uncertainty. Momentum oscillators such as the weekly RSI and KST remain bearish, and volume-based indicators show no clear trend confirmation. The stock’s slight weekly underperformance relative to the Sensex (-0.09% vs +1.51%) suggests ongoing consolidation and the need for careful monitoring of support levels near Rs.250.

Conclusion

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. experienced a week of mixed fortunes, starting with a steep decline and ending with a cautiously optimistic technical outlook. The Golden Cross formation and MarketsMOJO’s upgrade to a Buy rating highlight renewed confidence in the stock’s medium- to long-term prospects. However, mixed momentum signals and subdued volume trends counsel prudence in the near term. Investors should watch for confirmation of sustained upward momentum and monitor sector developments closely as ONGC navigates this transitional phase within the broader market context.

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