ONGC Technical Momentum Shifts to Mildly Bullish Amid Mixed Indicator Signals

Technical Trend Overview

ONGC’s technical parameters have evolved recently, signalling a cautious but optimistic outlook for investors. The daily moving averages have turned bullish, reflecting short-term upward price momentum. Meanwhile, weekly indicators present a mixed picture: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on a weekly basis is bullish, suggesting increasing buying pressure, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, indicating some underlying weakness or consolidation in momentum.

On the monthly timeframe, the MACD remains mildly bearish, hinting at some longer-term caution, but this is offset by bullish Bollinger Bands, which suggest that price volatility is expanding upwards and the stock is trading near the upper band – a classic sign of strength. The KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator, however, remains mildly bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, signalling that momentum may not yet be fully confirmed across all timeframes.

Price Action and Volatility

ONGC’s current price stands at ₹269.10, up 0.79% from the previous close of ₹267.00. The stock traded within a range of ₹266.20 to ₹270.50 today, approaching its 52-week high of ₹277.80. This proximity to the yearly peak underscores the recent bullish sentiment, although the stock remains well above its 52-week low of ₹205.00, reflecting a strong recovery over the past year.

Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, has expanded on the monthly chart, indicating increased trading activity and potential for further price movement. The weekly Bollinger Bands also show bullish signals, reinforcing the short-term positive momentum.

Momentum Indicators and Market Sentiment

The MACD’s bullish crossover on the weekly chart is a key technical event, often interpreted as a buy signal by traders. This suggests that the short-term momentum is gaining strength, supported by the daily moving averages which have also turned positive. However, the weekly RSI remains bearish, currently below the neutral 50 level, which implies that the stock may still be experiencing some selling pressure or is in a phase of consolidation.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows no clear trend on either weekly or monthly charts, indicating that volume has not decisively confirmed the price moves. Similarly, Dow Theory analysis reveals no definitive trend on weekly or monthly timeframes, suggesting that while momentum is improving, the broader market confirmation is still pending.

Comparative Performance Against Sensex

ONGC’s recent returns have been impressive relative to the broader market. Over the past month, the stock has surged 13.07%, while the Sensex declined by 2.49%. Year-to-date, ONGC has gained 12.01%, contrasting with the Sensex’s 2.24% loss. Over longer horizons, ONGC’s 3-year and 5-year returns stand at 86.49% and 175.58% respectively, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 36.94% and 64.22% gains. However, over the past year, ONGC’s 2.89% return lags behind the Sensex’s 6.44%, reflecting some recent volatility and sector-specific challenges.

Mojo Score and Rating Upgrade

MarketsMOJO’s proprietary scoring system has upgraded ONGC’s Mojo Grade from Hold to Buy as of 5 February 2026, reflecting the improved technical outlook and positive price momentum. The stock’s Mojo Score stands at a robust 74.0, signalling strong conviction in its near-term prospects. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating a large-cap status with stable market capitalisation.

This upgrade aligns with the technical trend shift from mildly bearish to mildly bullish, reinforcing the view that ONGC is entering a phase of renewed strength. The combination of bullish daily moving averages and monthly Bollinger Bands supports this positive revision, while the mixed signals from weekly RSI and KST suggest that investors should remain vigilant for potential short-term fluctuations.

Sector and Industry Context

ONGC operates within the Oil sector, which has experienced volatility amid fluctuating global energy prices and geopolitical tensions. Despite these headwinds, ONGC’s technical resilience and relative outperformance against the Sensex highlight its defensive qualities and potential as a sector leader. The stock’s ability to maintain gains near its 52-week high amid broader market uncertainty is a positive sign for investors seeking exposure to the energy space.

Investors should note that while the technical indicators are encouraging, the absence of clear volume confirmation and Dow Theory trends suggests that a cautious approach is warranted. Monitoring the weekly RSI and KST for signs of improvement will be critical in confirming a sustained bullish trend.

Investor Takeaway

For investors, ONGC’s recent technical developments suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook. The shift to mildly bullish technical trends, supported by strong monthly returns and an upgrade in Mojo Grade, indicates that the stock is poised for potential further gains. However, the mixed signals from momentum indicators such as RSI and KST, alongside the lack of volume confirmation, advise a measured approach.

Investors should watch for confirmation of momentum through improvements in weekly RSI and KST readings, as well as sustained price action above key moving averages. Given ONGC’s strong relative performance against the Sensex over the medium to long term, it remains an attractive option for those seeking exposure to the oil sector with a large-cap safety cushion.

In summary, ONGC’s technical parameters have improved significantly, signalling a potential uptrend in the near term. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and positive monthly Bollinger Bands reinforce this view, while the recent Mojo Grade upgrade to Buy adds further confidence for investors considering entry or accumulation.

Looking Ahead

Market participants should continue to monitor key technical indicators and price action closely. A sustained break above the 52-week high of ₹277.80 would be a strong bullish confirmation, while any reversal below the daily moving averages could signal a pause or correction. The evolving geopolitical and commodity price environment will also play a crucial role in shaping ONGC’s trajectory.

Overall, the technical momentum shift combined with solid monthly returns and a positive rating upgrade positions ONGC as a stock to watch in the oil sector for 2026.

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