ONGC Declines 3.06% Amid Mixed Technical Signals and Derivatives Activity

5 January: High-Value Trading Amid Mixed Market Signals

ONGC was among the most actively traded stocks by value on 5 January, with a turnover exceeding ₹180 crore and a volume of 74.2 lakh shares. The stock opened strongly at Rs.246.80, a 2.21% gain over the previous close, touching its intraday high early in the session. However, profit booking and broader market pressures led to a decline, with the stock closing at Rs.239.15, down 1.14% on the day. This underperformance contrasted with a marginal sector gain of 0.08% and a Sensex decline of 0.15%, signalling selective profit-taking amid a cautious environment.

Institutional interest remained steady but delivery volumes declined by 32.11% relative to the five-day average, indicating a temporary pullback in long-term accumulation. Technically, the stock traded above its 5-day and 20-day moving averages but remained below longer-term averages, reflecting resistance at key levels.

Derivatives Market Activity: Bullish and Bearish Signals Ahead of January Expiry

On the same day, ONGC saw robust activity in both call and put options ahead of the 27 January expiry. Call options at strike prices of Rs.245 and Rs.250 attracted significant volumes, with open interest indicating sustained bullish positioning. Conversely, put options at the Rs.240 strike also recorded heavy trading, signalling hedging or bearish bets near a critical support level. This dual activity reflects a market balancing optimism for a rebound with caution over potential downside risks.

The surge in open interest by 11.19% to 90,709 contracts, alongside futures volume of 57,597 contracts, underscores heightened speculative interest and possible directional bets. Despite the initial gap up, the stock closed lower, suggesting a complex interplay of forces in the derivatives and spot markets.

6 January: Technical Momentum Shifts to Mildly Bearish

Following the mixed signals on 5 January, ONGC’s technical momentum shifted to a mildly bearish stance on 6 January. The stock closed at Rs.238.00, down 1.45%, underperforming the Sensex’s 0.19% decline. Weekly and monthly MACD indicators turned bearish, while Bollinger Bands suggested increased selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained neutral, indicating no immediate oversold conditions.

Daily moving averages showed mild bullishness, but this was outweighed by bearish weekly and monthly trends. On-Balance Volume (OBV) remained flat, signalling a lack of strong volume confirmation for price moves. The downgrade of ONGC’s mojo grade to Hold with a score of 58.0 reflected this cautious technical outlook.

8 January: Intraday Low Amid Sectoral and Market Pressure

ONGC experienced a sharp decline on 8 January, falling 3.22% to close at Rs.231.45 after touching an intraday low of Rs.232.35. This drop was sharper than the Oil Exploration and Refineries sector’s 2.39% fall and the Sensex’s 0.76% decline, highlighting sector-specific headwinds. The stock traded below all key moving averages, signalling sustained bearish momentum.

Despite the broader Sensex remaining close to its 52-week high, ONGC’s underperformance reflected immediate price pressures and cautious investor sentiment. The stock’s attractive dividend yield of 5.23% continued to provide some support, but technical weakness and a Hold rating underscored the challenges ahead.

9 January: Partial Recovery Amid Continued Market Downtrend

On the final trading day of the week, ONGC rebounded modestly, closing at Rs.234.10, up 1.14%. This recovery came despite the Sensex continuing its downward trend, falling 0.89%. The stock’s partial bounce suggests some short-term support near current levels, though it remains below the week’s high of Rs.246.80 and key moving averages.

Volume increased to 6.17 lakh shares, indicating renewed trading interest. However, the overall weekly decline of 3.06% and the Hold mojo rating reflect ongoing caution among investors amid mixed technical and fundamental signals.

Key Takeaways

Positive Signals: ONGC’s high liquidity and institutional interest remain strong, supported by a substantial dividend yield of 5.17%. The stock’s partial recovery on 9 January and short-term technical support above 5-day and 20-day moving averages offer some near-term stability.

Cautionary Factors: The stock underperformed the Sensex and its sector for most of the week, closing down 3.06%. Heavy put option activity near the Rs.240 strike and a shift to mildly bearish technical momentum highlight downside risks. The Hold mojo rating and downgrade from Buy reflect tempered expectations amid sectoral and market headwinds.

Derivatives and Technical Outlook: The surge in open interest and mixed option positioning suggest market participants are hedging and speculating amid uncertainty. Technical indicators such as MACD, Bollinger Bands, and RSI signal consolidation with potential for further volatility. The stock’s inability to sustain levels above longer-term moving averages remains a key resistance hurdle.

Conclusion

ONGC’s performance in the week ending 9 January 2026 was characterised by volatility, mixed technical signals, and active derivatives positioning. While the stock’s dividend yield and institutional interest provide a defensive cushion, the recent price weakness and bearish option activity underscore caution. The stock’s slight underperformance relative to the Sensex and sector, combined with a Hold mojo rating, suggests investors should monitor key technical levels and sector developments closely. The coming weeks, especially around the January expiry, will be critical in determining ONGC’s near-term trajectory amid evolving oil market dynamics.

Unlock special upgrade rates for a limited period. Start Saving Now →